Cashew kernels steady as India’s harvest caps prices, Vietnam holds firm

Indian and Vietnamese cashew kernel prices remain broadly stable, with mild softness on Indian offers as peak harvest flows into the market while Vietnamese export values hold firm on tight margins and elevated raw nut costs.

Cashew trade in mid‑April is characterised by good kernel availability out of India and a still‑supportive demand backdrop in key importing regions. India is at the tail end of its main harvest, which typically brings the lowest kernel prices of the year, while Vietnam’s processors are navigating higher raw cashew nut (RCN) costs and freight risks. Short‑term weather is hot and mostly dry across key Indian cashew belts, supporting harvest logistics but raising concerns for late‑flowering trees. For the next few days, prices in India are likely to trade sideways to slightly soft, whereas Vietnamese benchmark grades are expected to stay stable to marginally firm.
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📈 Prices & Spreads (all in EUR/kg, indicative)

Using a working FX assumption of 1 USD ≈ 0.93 EUR.

Origin / Location	Grade	Term	Latest quote (EUR/kg)	1-week move
India, New Delhi	W320, conv.	FOB	≈ 6.43	▼ ~0.05 USD (<1%) vs 1 week ago (internal quotes)
India, New Delhi	W320, conv.	FCA	≈ 6.35	Flat w/w (internal quotes)
Vietnam, Hanoi	WW320, conv.	FOB	≈ 6.40–6.55	Stable to slightly firm vs early April
India (wholesale range)	Cashew nuts, mixed	Ex‑warehouse	≈ 4.78–5.22	Within recent band, reflecting harvest pressure

At the export level, recent market commentary places Indian kernel offers broadly around €4.70–€5.10/kg (converted from USD) for main grades, while Vietnam’s WW320 FOB is assessed close to €6.2–6.4/kg and reported as stable to slightly firm in early April. This suggests a modest premium for Vietnam material versus Indian kernels, in line with tighter margin conditions for Vietnamese processors.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

India is in the tail end of its peak cashew harvesting window in April, a period that typically corresponds with seasonal lows in wholesale prices before tightening from May onwards. Fresh arrivals into domestic markets have improved, and recent analysis suggested that prices could soften into the first half of April as supply increased. This harvest pressure is now largely priced in, limiting further near‑term downside.

On the global side, African raw cashew output has expanded strongly. Recent industry data for 2025/26 point to sizeable increases in Western African production, including Côte d’Ivoire and Benin, significantly boosting raw nut availability for processors in Vietnam and India. However, a weak 2025 African crop and prior export restrictions in some origins have kept RCN prices elevated into 2026, squeezing kernel processing margins and underpinning kernel price floors, particularly in Vietnam.

Vietnam continues to operate as the dominant kernel exporter, with early‑2026 shipments reported robust: kernel exports in February alone reached over 24,000 tonnes, at an average value above USD 6,400/t, and more than 74,000 tonnes across the first two months of the year at even higher average prices. This underlines firm demand into key destinations (EU, US, Middle East), though buyers remain price‑sensitive and inclined to stagger purchases rather than aggressively restock.

🌦️ Weather Outlook – India Focus (Region: IN)

Short‑term weather is mixed but generally favourable for ongoing post‑harvest activities in India’s main cashew belts. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) currently forecasts heatwave conditions over central and parts of south India, including north interior Karnataka and adjoining regions, persisting up to around April 20. These high temperatures can accelerate drying of harvested nuts and ease logistics, but may stress late‑season flowering trees in marginal areas.

In contrast, earlier in March the IMD signalled spells of rain and thunderstorms across Kerala over several days, bringing intermittent showers to some coastal cashew zones. Those events helped soil moisture but are now in the rear‑view; the immediate 3‑day horizon is dominated by heat and largely dry conditions across much of peninsular India. Overall, no acute weather shock is visible for the next few days that would significantly disrupt Indian cashew supply, so the main driver remains harvest volume rather than weather risk.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Harvest timing in India: April marks the seasonal low in kernel prices as peak arrivals hit markets. Wholesale price benchmarks for India remain in the vicinity of USD 5.14–5.62/kg (≈ EUR 4.78–5.22/kg), consistent with harvest‑driven softness but not a collapse.
• Raw nut costs & margins: After a multi‑year upswing, raw cashew nut prices remain historically high due to previous African weather issues and policy constraints, contributing to thinner processing margins in Vietnam and India and limiting any sharp downward correction in kernel prices.
• Global supply growth: 2025/26 projections show strong growth in Northern Hemisphere raw cashew production, especially across West Africa, pushing world supply above 6.3 million tonnes of in‑shell equivalent. This underpins medium‑term availability, even as some regions like Brazil are expected to see slightly smaller crops.
• Trade & freight risks: Recent cashew market reports highlight that while kernel prices are soft in India due to harvest, global freight and geopolitical risks (including Red Sea disruptions) remain an upside risk for delivered prices to Europe and the Middle East, as freight premiums can quickly offset any origin‑side softness.

📆 Short-Term Price Outlook (3 days, region focus: IN)

Baseline view (through ~20 April 2026): With India’s harvest well advanced, heatwave‑driven dry conditions, and still‑elevated raw nut costs globally, the cashew market is likely to remain range‑bound in the very short term.

• India, export‑grade kernels (FOB/FCA, New Delhi): Sideways to slightly soft. Expect main grades (W320, W240, W450) to trade roughly within their current EUR‑equivalent bands, with any further downside limited as local arrivals begin to slow toward late April.
• Vietnam, Hanoi FOB kernels: Stable to marginally firm. Tight processing margins and robust early‑year export performance suggest most sellers will defend current WW320 offers near the mid‑EUR 6/kg mark rather than discount aggressively.
• Europe, ex‑warehouse (e.g., NL Dordrecht): Largely flat in the 3‑day horizon, with small FX and freight‑driven noise more likely than structural moves.

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers (roasters, packers): Use the current harvest‑season softness in India to secure nearby to early‑Q3 coverage, particularly for standard grades (W320/W240). Consider layering purchases rather than waiting for substantially lower prices, as firm RCN costs and potential freight volatility may cap further downside.
• Exporters in India: With domestic harvest supply still ample but international prices supported by global fundamentals, focus on locking in forward contracts for premium grades where India remains competitive versus Vietnam. Monitor heatwave impacts on labour and logistics, but short‑term disruption risk appears limited.
• Importers in EU/ME: Given stable‑to‑firm Vietnam offers and soft but resilient Indian prices, a diversified origin strategy (mix of India and Vietnam) helps manage both quality and freight risk. Watch freight lanes affected by Red Sea and Indian Ocean routing for any sudden cost spikes.

Over the next three trading days, the most probable scenario is a continuation of the current range: modestly soft Indian kernels anchored by harvest supplies, offset by firm cost structures in Vietnam and ongoing freight uncertainties. No major weather or policy shock is visible in this window that would trigger a sharp directional break.

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