Cashew Market Drifts Softer as African RCN Season Winds Down
Global cashew prices are stable to slightly soft as African RCN supplies tighten but kernel demand stays quiet. Outlook and trading implications for May 2026.
Prices & Differentials
Kernel prices in Vietnam remain at multi‑month lows, with offers broadly unchanged week-on-week despite some softening in RCN. Using an approximate rate of 1 USD = 0.92 EUR and ₹96 = 1 USD for market calculations, indicative Vietnam kernel offers translate to roughly:
Spot kernel offers from major hubs are consistent with this low but steady structure. For example, recent quotes indicate Vietnamese WW320 around 6.25–6.30 EUR/kg FOB Hanoi, Indian WW320 around 6.30–6.50 EUR/kg FOB/FCA New Delhi, and non‑origin kernels in Northwest Europe around 4.60–4.70 EUR/kg FCA Dordrecht for conventional WW320 and about 5.60–5.80 EUR/kg for organic product, all in EUR terms.
On the RCN side, better-quality West African cargo (Guinea‑Bissau, Senegal 52–53 lbs) is offered near 1,670 USD/ton CNF (≈ 1,535 EUR/ton), while lower-outturn material (43–46 lbs) trades around 1,350–1,480 USD/ton CNF (≈ 1,240–1,360 EUR/ton). Local Indian RCN in North Andhra sits near 160 INR/kg (≈ 1.53 EUR/kg) for 52 lbs+, while weaker wet crop in Mangalore is around 120–130 INR/kg (≈ 1.15–1.25 EUR/kg).
Supply & Demand Landscape
The RCN season is approaching its close across most African origins. Supplies are tightening in Ghana, Nigeria, Benin, Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire, where farm-gate prices have slipped to about 200–375 CFA/kg (≈ 0.29–0.54 EUR/kg), down from roughly 300–400 CFA/kg a week earlier. Exporters prefer port-delivered lots to manage significant quality variation, and poor nuts are increasingly rejected.
In Senegal and Gambia, Eid-related buying was weaker than expected, with local prices around 92–94 GMD/kg (≈ 1.30–1.33 EUR/kg) and 650–670 CFA/kg (≈ 0.94–0.97 EUR/kg) respectively. Moisture content is high near 15–16%, complicating drying and raising processing risk. Guinea’s quality has deteriorated in some inland areas (Kankan ~40–41 lbs), while Boke still offers better outturn around 49–50 lbs but with slower arrivals due to rains; export offers from Boke hover around 1,500–1,550 USD/ton (≈ 1,380–1,430 EUR/ton).
On the demand side, kernel offtake remains quiet. Indian kernel demand is described as steady to slow, with little price movement despite nearly exhausted local RCN in several states. Internationally, buyers in key consumer regions are covered and remain reluctant to extend positions significantly at present, even as early‑2026 EU kernel imports rose in both volume and value and set a quarterly record in January–March. This reflects good structural demand but cautious short‑term buying.
Fundamentals & Currency Effects
Processors in Vietnam and India are buying RCN only as needed to fulfil nearby contracts, as current kernel price levels are already low and margins are thin. In West Africa, the season is winding down with softer RCN prices and mixed quality, but without major weather‑related crop loss. Local trading activity is slowing sharply in Ghana and Nigeria as stocks dwindle and many exporters halt purchases.
Currency remains a key driver of landed costs. The Indian rupee recently traded around 95–96 per USD, after briefly weakening towards 97. This keeps the EUR‑denominated landed cost of imported RCN elevated for Indian processors and limits their ability to accept significantly lower kernel prices. At the same time, higher global fuel prices and freight surcharges support floor levels for kernels delivered into Europe, even if base commodity prices are not rallying.
In the EU, import statistics for early 2026 show a 5–6% year‑on‑year increase in cashew kernel volumes and more than 20% growth in total import value, with average import prices near 7,700 USD/ton (≈ 7,080 EUR/ton). Imports from African origins, especially Côte d’Ivoire, have expanded, reinforcing the region’s role as a key raw‑nut and growing kernel supplier into Europe.
Weather & Short-Term Outlook
Weather in the West African cashew belt has turned more mixed toward the tail of the season. Rains in parts of Guinea are slowing arrivals and contributing to higher moisture content, increasing post‑harvest handling costs but not materially changing the overall crop size. Elsewhere in West Africa, conditions are broadly seasonal and the harvest is at a late stage, so additional weather shocks are unlikely to significantly alter 2026 output.
Over the next few weeks, fundamentals point to a continuation of the current stable‑to‑soft tone. RCN supplies will continue to tighten seasonally, but this is offset by quiet kernel demand and comfortable inventories at major consuming destinations. Upside risk would mainly come from a faster‑than‑expected recovery in kernel demand in North America, Europe or China, or from renewed currency and freight volatility raising import costs.
Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication
- Kernel buyers (EU/US): Consider moderate coverage on nearby needs in the coming days while prices remain at the lower end of recent ranges, but avoid over‑extending coverage given sluggish demand and the absence of immediate supply threats.
- RCN buyers (processors): Focus on high‑outturn West African lots (Guinea‑Bissau, Senegal, Boke) where differentials have softened, and be cautious with high‑moisture or low‑outturn material given margin pressure at current kernel levels.
- Producers & exporters in West Africa: With farm‑gate prices easing and quality issues more visible, timely sales of good‑quality stocks remain advisable; holding poor lots in hope of a near‑term rally carries significant risk.
In summary, the cashew market is likely to remain quiet in the very short term, with drifting but not sharply falling prices. A more decisive move will require either a meaningful pick‑up in kernel consumption or renewed cost‑push pressures from currencies and logistics.