Chickpea Prices Steady as Monsoon Risks Loom Over India, Premium Holds for Mexico

Indian and Mexican chickpea export prices are broadly stable, with India trading at a discount to Mexican origins and a firm size-related premium within each origin. Weather-driven supply risks in India and elevated costs for large Mexican Kabuli sizes keep upside risk alive, but no immediate price breakout is visible over the next few days. Chickpea markets remain calm, with flat FOB indications in both New Delhi and Mexico City compared with mid-July. In India, the focus is shifting from old-crop availability to how a still-subpar 2026 monsoon could affect the upcoming pulse balance, especially if rainfall deficits persist into August. Improving but uneven rains and ongoing El Niño concerns are supporting a mildly bullish undertone for pulses in general, even as near-term chickpea export offers stay range-bound. In Mexico, large-size Kabuli chickpeas continue to command a premium, supported by steady export demand and tight supply of very large calibres.

Prices

All prices below are converted from USD/mt to EUR/mt using an indicative rate of 1 USD = 0.92 EUR and rounded.

India maintains a clear size premium: 12 mm Kabuli is about 14% above 60-62 (8 mm). Mexico shows an even stronger premium for 12 mm over smaller sizes, consistent with global preference for large Mexican Kabuli beans. Recent global pulse commentary also highlights Mexico as a key supplier of very large but relatively expensive Kabuli chickpeas, in line with current price differentials. 

Supply & Demand Drivers

India

India’s chickpea balance sheet is still underpinned by large rabi production and government-held buffer stocks, which is helping cap near-term price volatility. However, the 2026 southwest monsoon has been materially weaker than normal, with cumulative rainfall from June 1 to mid-July running about 23% below average and more than half of districts initially in deficit. 

July rains have reduced the monsoon deficit compared with June, but overall rainfall remains below normal, and key central and southern agricultural belts continue to see moisture stress.  Pulses are among the crops most exposed to late or erratic July rains, as over 60% of kharif pulse area is typically sown this month.  This keeps upside risk in medium-term pulse prices, including chickpeas, even if spot export offers are currently flat.

Mexico

For Mexico, the 2026 chickpea outlook is shaped less by domestic demand and more by export channels into the Mediterranean, Middle East and South Asia. Earlier seasonal pulse outlooks flagged tight availability of very large Mexican Kabuli sizes and strong competition from other origins at smaller calibres.  With current EUR-based FOB indications stable week-on-week, today’s price structure largely reflects this existing tightness rather than fresh weather or policy shocks.

Weather & Crop Conditions (IN, MX)

India – Monsoon Watch

Nationally, the 2026 monsoon remains in deficit but is improving: recent updates point to a rainfall shortfall around 16–21% as of late July, down from much steeper gaps in June.  Soil moisture in parts of central and southern India is still under pressure following earlier dry spells, raising concerns for rainfed pulse yields if August rains disappoint. 

For New Delhi specifically, the 3-day forecast (27–29 July) shows cloudy, hot, and humid conditions with intermittent showers and occasional rain, with highs easing from about 35°C to 32°C.  This should offer some local relief and modestly support short-term logistics and arrivals but is not yet a game-changer for the broader pulse outlook.

Mexico – Northern Growing Areas

In northern Mexico (e.g. Sonora/Hermosillo), where much of the country’s Kabuli chickpeas are grown or shipped through, the immediate 3-day pattern is dominated by very warm, mostly cloudy conditions with scattered thunderstorms.  Highs remain near 39–41°C, with convective storms bringing localized heavy rain. For already harvested or stored chickpeas, the main implication is on logistics and moisture management during handling and transport.

Fundamentals & Trading Outlook

With Indian and Mexican export indications unchanged from last week, flat prices currently mask growing medium-term weather and inflation risks. Indian food inflation has already accelerated on the back of broader food price pressures and still-below-normal rainfall, keeping policymakers focused on supply and stocks.  Meanwhile, global pulse balance sheets continue to rely on Mexico and a few other key origins for large Kabuli sizes, reinforcing the structural premium for 12 mm chickpeas.

• For importers: Use the current stability in EUR-based FOB offers to secure coverage for Q4 2026, particularly for large Mexican Kabuli (12 mm), where upside risk from tight supply and steady demand remains significant.
• For Indian exporters: Consider forward-selling limited volumes on any EUR strength or freight softening, but retain some old-crop flexibility given monsoon uncertainty and the potential for domestic policy interventions if food prices spike.
• For end-users in Europe/MENA: Diversify origin mix between India and Mexico to manage premium risk on very large sizes, while using Indian mid-size chickpeas (10–11 mm) as a cost-effective component in blends.

3-Day Price Direction Outlook (EUR)

Given unchanged FOB indications over the past week, no major fresh supply news, and only incremental weather developments, chickpea prices in both origins are expected to remain range-bound over the next three days (27–29 July 2026).

• India – New Delhi FOB: Sideways; 42-44 (12 mm) likely to hold near ~870–890 EUR/mt; smaller sizes maintain current discounts.
• Mexico – Mexico City FOB: Sideways to slightly firm bias; 42-44 (12 mm) expected around ~1,110–1,140 EUR/mt as export interest for large Kabuli remains steady.