Chickpea Prices Under Mild Pressure as Indian Imports Surge

Chickpea prices are drifting lower but not collapsing, as abundant Indian supplies and strong imports weigh on values while restrained selling and upcoming festive demand help to form a soft floor. The current market is characterized by weak buying from dal mills, who are covering only nearby needs, and by traders avoiding large inventory builds. At the same time, domestic availability is comfortable and imports into India have more than doubled year-on-year, sharply improving supply security. However, stockists are in no rush to liquidate, and seasonal consumption is expected to pick up into the festive period, creating an environment of mild downward pressure rather than a steep selloff.

Prices

In Delhi, Rajasthan-origin chickpeas eased by roughly the equivalent of EUR 0.55–0.60 per 100 kg to around EUR 71.5–71.8 per 100 kg, while Madhya Pradesh-origin lots traded near EUR 70.7–71.8 per 100 kg. These moves reflect incremental softening as mills bid cautiously and traders avoid forward coverage.

Export and ex-warehouse indications in New Delhi corroborate this mildly weaker tone. FCA prices for Indian-origin dried chickpeas range around EUR 0.71–1.00/kg depending on size grade, with most grades edging about EUR 0.01/kg lower compared with end-July. FOB New Delhi offers sit roughly at EUR 0.85–0.97/kg, broadly stable to slightly higher on logistics and currency factors, suggesting that domestic weakness has not yet translated into aggressive export discounting.

Australian chickpeas for August–September shipment are offered around EUR 588–597/tonne, but Indian mills show limited interest at these levels given ample and cheaper domestic and imported supplies already in the pipeline. The price gap between Indian domestic and Australian origin, combined with comfortable inventories, is effectively capping upside in import parity values for now.

Supply & Demand

India’s supply backdrop is clearly bearish in the short term. Chickpea imports between January and June exceeded 1.16 million tonnes, compared with about 0.64 million tonnes in the same period a year earlier, almost doubling year-on-year. These arrivals, together with a satisfactory domestic crop, have removed immediate concerns about shortages and ensured comfortable availability across key consuming centers.

Beyond private trade flows, the government is also holding chickpea inventories, while additional volumes remain in the hands of farmers, stockists and dal processors. This broad distribution of stocks underpins market confidence that near-term supply disruptions are unlikely. At the same time, exporters in origins such as Australia face lukewarm buying interest from India, as mills already feel well-covered and are reluctant to lock in comparatively expensive overseas cargoes.

On the demand side, consumption of processed chickpea products is yet to show a decisive improvement. Dal mills are limiting procurement to just-in-time needs, keeping physical market turnover thin. Nonetheless, expectations of stronger household and institutional demand during the upcoming festive season provide a medium-term demand anchor that tempers aggressive downside bets from sellers.

Fundamentals & Weather Context

Fundamentally, the market is caught between heavy near-term supply and the prospect of seasonal demand recovery. Comfortable stocks at multiple levels of the chain, nearly doubled imports in the first half of the year, and ongoing government holdings collectively exert pressure on spot prices. Yet selling pressure remains controlled: stockists are consciously avoiding large-scale liquidation at lower levels, preferring to wait for better demand later in the season.

From a weather perspective, the 2026 southwest monsoon is unfolding under an emerging El Niño backdrop, with the Indian Meteorological Department’s long-range forecast signaling an overall tendency toward below-normal seasonal rainfall, especially over the rainfed core zone. While this raises medium-term yield and acreage risks for some pulse crops, current chickpea availability is already secured through domestic stocks and imports, so weather concerns are not yet a primary price driver.

Forward-looking weather discussions suggest rainfall could remain uneven in the latter part of the monsoon, with some areas facing moisture stress and others receiving adequate precipitation. If realized, this pattern could influence planting decisions and crop conditions for the next rabi season, potentially tightening fundamentals in 2027. For now, however, the weight of existing stocks dominates market psychology.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

In the near term, the chickpea market is likely to stay under mild downward pressure, but a sharp breakdown looks unlikely unless stockists turn aggressive sellers or demand weakens further. Seasonal consumption ahead of festivals should slowly improve mill off-take, while any renewed concerns about the 2026–27 crop due to monsoon performance could lend support on breaks.

• Buyers (mills, processors): Continue staggered coverage rather than front-loading purchases. Use price dips driven by slow spot demand to secure a portion of festive-season requirements, but avoid chasing minor rallies.
• Stockists and farmers: Maintain a disciplined selling strategy. Avoid heavy liquidation at current soft levels unless cash-flow needs dictate, as incremental demand into the festive period should improve bargaining power.
• Exporters and importers: For Australian and other offshore origins, Indian buying will likely stay selective while domestic stocks remain ample. Focus on opportunistic sales when currency moves or freight shifts briefly improve delivered competitiveness into India or alternative destinations.

3-Day EUR Price Indication

Over the next three trading days, Indian chickpea prices in EUR terms are expected to trade in a narrow range with a mild downward bias, reflecting weak mill demand and comfortable stocks, while controlled selling and impending festive demand limit any sharp decline.