Chickpeas (Chana) Edge Higher as Indian Supply Tightens and Australian Output Slides
Chickpeas prices in India are firming on tighter arrivals and rising mill demand, while a sharp fall in Australian production is set to support export values.
Prices & Spreads
In New Delhi, chana has moved higher as mills step up buying after earlier softness, while selling pressure at current levels remains limited. Recent FCA offers for Indian chickpeas (New Delhi, ex-works) show a firming trend across sizes, with large counts (42–44, 12 mm) around EUR 0.98/kg and 44–46 (11 mm) at approximately EUR 1.02/kg, both up 3–4 cents versus late May. Smaller sizes 46–48 (10 mm) and 60–62 (8 mm) trade at discounts around EUR 0.94/kg and EUR 0.77/kg respectively, reflecting typical size-based pricing but also steady demand for medium grades.
FOB export indications from India are slightly higher than domestic FCA levels, with 42–44 count quoted close to EUR 0.96/kg and 44–46 at about EUR 0.93–0.95/kg equivalent, maintaining India’s competitive edge versus Mexico. Mexican 42–44 kabuli offers from Mexico City remain around EUR 1.15/kg FOB, unchanged over the last week, keeping Mexico positioned mainly in premium quality and niche demand segments.
Supply & Demand Drivers
Domestically in India, chana prices are supported by a combination of reduced arrivals from producing states and limited import flows. Market participants report that arrivals have dropped compared with earlier weeks, while imported chickpea shipments remain modest. Lower imports of yellow peas this season are a key structural driver, as feed and food users increasingly substitute with chana for both dal and besan, tightening the local balance.
On the demand side, dal mills have resumed buying after the earlier price correction, but purchasing remains selective and oriented toward immediate needs rather than aggressive stock-building. Nonetheless, with monsoon-linked consumption and the festive demand window approaching from July onward, traders expect a gradual improvement in offtake for chana dal and besan. This seasonal pattern is likely to keep downside limited even if short-term profit-taking emerges.
Global Fundamentals & Australian Outlook
Australia, a key exporter of desi chickpeas to South Asia and the Middle East, is heading into a sharply smaller 2026–27 chickpea crop. Recent updates linked to the national winter crop report indicate that overall winter crop area is projected to fall by about 7% year on year due to high fuel and fertilizer costs and uneven rainfall, with chickpea area singled out for a much steeper reduction—industry commentary points to declines of roughly one-third or more in major producing states such as New South Wales and Queensland.
Independent pulse market analysis suggests Australia’s chickpea output could drop to nearly half of last year’s level in 2026–27, with a tentative crop estimate around 1.1 million tonnes. In parallel, reports from Australian and Canadian commentators note high carryover stocks after previous large harvests but also flag that current low producer selling and weaker new-crop sowing intentions will gradually erode this buffer. Combined with resilient demand from traditional importers such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh, a smaller Australian export surplus is likely to underpin global kabuli and desi chickpea prices into 2027.
Weather & Regional Outlook
In India, the onset of the southwest monsoon is broadly on schedule, supporting soil moisture for kharif crops but only indirectly affecting chana, which is primarily a rabi crop. Market attention is shifting toward fertilizer availability and input costs for the next sowing cycle, as recent commentary highlights stress in fertilizer supply chains and the potential for elevated prices if geopolitical tensions persist into July. Uncertainty over input costs and rainfall distribution for the 2026–27 rabi season could influence farmers’ willingness to maintain or expand chana area later this year.
In Australia, regional dryness in northern New South Wales and southern Queensland has already contributed to lower sowing intentions for winter pulses, including chickpeas, while other regions benefit from more favourable early-season rainfall. Weather during late winter and spring will remain critical: a continued below-average rainfall outlook would cap yields and confirm a smaller exportable surplus, while any improvement in moisture could partially mitigate yield losses but is unlikely to reverse the sharp area cuts already made.
Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- For importers in South Asia and MENA: Use current levels to secure a portion of forward coverage for Q4 2026–Q1 2027, particularly from India, as tighter Australian supplies and stronger Indian festive demand are likely to support higher values in the coming months.
- For Indian processors (dal and besan mills): Consider gradually increasing raw chana coverage on price dips rather than waiting for deeper corrections; reduced domestic arrivals and limited yellow pea imports suggest that any downside will be shallow and short-lived.
- For producers and exporters: Indian sellers may benefit from pacing sales, as structural demand support and declining Australian availability improve bargaining power. However, monitor monsoon progress and policy moves on imports closely, as sudden tariff or quota changes can still alter trade flows.
Short-Term Price Direction (3-Day View)
- India, New Delhi (FCA chana): Slightly firmer bias in EUR terms, with mills continuing selective buying and limited farmer selling; expect a narrow trading band with an upward tilt.
- India, FOB (export chickpeas): Stable to marginally higher, supported by stronger domestic FCA levels and growing awareness of a smaller Australian new crop.
- Mexico, FOB chickpeas: Mostly steady at a premium to Indian origin, with thin trade; any follow-through rally will likely lag moves in South Asian benchmarks.