Chickpeas: India Corrects, Australia Tightens – Recovery Risks Building

Chickpea prices are undergoing a short-term correction in India as profit-booking and softer mill buying weigh on values, but structurally tight supplies and a sharp Australian crop downgrade are limiting downside and point to renewed upside risk into the festival period. The domestic chana complex is caught between weaker near-term demand and constrained global supply. Imported stocks at Indian ports are modest, Tanzanian arrivals remain thin, and Australia is heading for a chickpea crop more than 50% smaller year on year. While NAFED continues to liquidate stocks, smaller mills report low inventories and are expected to re-enter more aggressively as festival demand builds. Internationally, recent spot offers and trade data confirm firm export values, even as Indian FOB quotes have nudged slightly lower over the past week. Overall, the market looks more corrective than bearish.

Prices

Chana prices in Delhi have declined for a third consecutive session on weaker mill buying and profit-taking. Rajasthan-origin chana is quoted around the equivalent of EUR 76.5–76.8/100 kg, while Madhya Pradesh-origin material trades near EUR 75.6–75.9/100 kg, after recent reductions from earlier peaks. These levels sit only moderately above India’s MSP, signalling a mild correction rather than a full-scale downturn.

Export quotations from India have eased slightly but remain broadly firm. New Delhi FOB offers for desi chickpeas (8–12 mm) are clustered around EUR 0.79–1.09/kg, depending on size and terms, down roughly 1–2% from late August levels in most grades. Mexican origin large-size chickpeas remain significantly higher, near EUR 1.12/kg FOB Mexico City, underlining the relative competitiveness of Indian product in global trade.

Supply & Demand

On the near-term supply side, imported chana stocks at Indian ports are estimated around 175,000 tonnes, with arrivals from Tanzania described as limited. This, combined with reports of low inventories among smaller mills, suggests that visible supply is not burdensome despite the recent price correction. At the same time, NAFED continues to release domestic stocks, providing a buffer against any abrupt spike and smoothing the current adjustment phase.

Internationally, the most significant shift is in Australia, where 2026–27 chickpea production is expected to fall by about 52% to just above 1 million tonnes, driven by reduced sowing and weaker yields in northern New South Wales and Queensland. This has already translated into rising CNF offers of Australian desi chickpeas into India, with September/October shipments recently reported near USD 685/t, up about USD 25 in a week, underscoring tightening export availability. Limited Tanzanian shipments to India, alongside this Australian shortfall, significantly restrict India’s options for covering any domestic deficit via imports.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals are currently balanced to slightly supportive. On one hand, three consecutive sessions of lower prices point to softer short-term demand from besan and dal mills, and to stockists locking in gains after the earlier rally. On the other hand, festival demand is approaching, smaller mills hold thin inventories, and imported supply remains relatively expensive versus domestic, limiting the potential for deep price cuts.

Weather risk is tilted to the upside for prices. Variable monsoon performance in India has left soil moisture uneven in some chickpea-growing regions, potentially affecting rabi sowing sentiment. In Australia, forecasts for continued periods of dryness and past disease pressure in parts of northern New South Wales and Queensland are key reasons behind reduced yield expectations and the sharp cut to production projections, reinforcing the medium-term tightening narrative in exportable supplies.

Outlook & Trading Guidance

Further near-term corrections remain possible as long as mills delay aggressive restocking and NAFED maintains a steady selling pace. However, given low mill inventories, a sharply smaller Australian crop, limited Tanzanian arrivals and firm international offer values, the downside from current levels appears limited. The balance of risks points to a stabilisation phase followed by a recovery as festival demand intensifies and import parity remains unfavourable.

• Importers / Buyers: Use current softening to secure partial coverage for Q4 needs, prioritising Indian-origin product where FOB discounts to Australia and Mexico are widest.
• Millers: Avoid running inventories too lean into the festival window; stagger purchases on dips, but be prepared for a rebound if NAFED slows sales or if global offers rise further.
• Producers & Stockists: Consider scaling back aggressive selling at current levels; retain a portion of stocks in anticipation of post-correction strength driven by festival offtake and tighter global supply.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• Delhi physical chana: Slight downside to sideways (−0.5% to +0.5%) as profit-booking continues but support emerges near MSP-equivalent levels.
• Indian FOB desi (New Delhi): Mostly steady, with minor softening possible on smaller sizes; larger calibres expected to hold firm.
• Australian CNF India indications: Firm to slightly higher, reflecting the sharply reduced 2026–27 crop and tight exportable supplies.