Chickpeas: Indian Correction vs. Australian Crop Shock Sets Up Upside Risk

Chickpea (chana) prices are in a mild correction phase in India as dal mills curb purchases, but sharply lower Australian output, thin mill stocks and approaching festival demand are setting up a renewed upside risk into Q4. Near term, weak buying and limited Tanzanian arrivals are keeping imported chana at Indian ports around 175,000 t manageable, yet export offers from Australia and Tanzania remain relatively firm, suggesting downside from current levels is likely to be shallow rather than structural.

Prices

Domestic chana in India is described as broadly stable to soft, with mills restricting purchases after recent gains. Spot data confirm a modest correction: average desi chana prices around 6,100–6,200 INR/100 kg as of 15 September 2026 are still up about 3–4% versus mid‑August, but have eased from early‑month highs.

Export offers for Australian chickpeas for September–October shipment are indicated around USD 690/t CNF India, rising to about USD 705/t for November–December, while Tanzanian origin is near USD 685/t CNF. With EUR at roughly 1.10 per USD, this implies landed values in the order of 627–641 EUR/t, keeping imports relatively expensive versus current domestic levels and capping further downside.

FOB offers in the physical market show only marginal easing in recent sessions. For Indian origins ex New Delhi, larger Kabuli sizes (42–44 count, 12 mm) are around 0.97–0.98 EUR/kg FOB in late August–early September, while mid‑sizes (44–48 count, 10–11 mm) trade near 0.90–0.95 EUR/kg. Mexican chickpeas, particularly large 12 mm counts, command a premium near 1.21 EUR/kg FOB Mexico City, underscoring continued tightness for high‑calibre product.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, imported chana stocks at Indian ports are estimated near 175,000 t, a manageable cushion but insufficient to offset a large external shock. Tanzanian supplies remain limited, constraining the ability of African origins to backfill any gap from Australia in the coming months.

The major structural shift is in Australia, where 2026/27 chickpea production is seen falling by around 52% year‑on‑year to just over 1 million tonnes. This aligns with the latest official outlook, which projects a roughly 51% drop to around 1.1 million tonnes, driven by a sharp cut in area and weaker conditions in northern New South Wales and Queensland.

Demand‑side, current weakness in India stems mainly from restricted buying by dal mills and some profit‑taking after earlier gains. At the same time, structural demand remains solid: chickpeas are a key pulse in India, and festival‑related consumption of chana dal and besan is about to intensify, particularly around Ganesh Chaturthi and subsequent autumn festivals, which typically lifts spot and CNF values.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals are tightening despite the present correction. Mill inventories are reported to be low, notably among smaller processors, which limits their ability to sit out the market if prices begin to firm again. Limited Tanzanian arrivals and relatively expensive Australian CNF offers versus domestic chana further restrict the downside.

Australian weather adds risk. Seasonal outlooks for September–November 2026 point to below‑average rainfall probabilities across parts of eastern Australia, including areas relevant for chickpeas in Queensland and New South Wales, with above‑normal temperatures also likely. If realised, this could reinforce yield pressure on late‑season crops and cap any recovery in production expectations.

In India, no acute weather shock is currently reported for standing chickpea crops, as the main rabi sowing still lies ahead after the monsoon. However, the combination of modest stock levels, government policy sensitivity around pulses, and tighter global availability from Australia implies that domestic balances into early 2027 may be more finely poised than headline port stocks suggest.

Short‑Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

The near‑term market outlook points to the current soft tone giving way to renewed firmness as festival demand accelerates and buyers confront the implications of a 52% Australian crop decline. Market commentary already highlights that the present correction may be temporary, with upside risk building into Q4.

• Importers / Traders: Consider covering a portion of Q4–Q1 needs now while prices are in correction, focusing on Indian origin for prompt and balancing with limited Australian/Tanzanian volumes to diversify risk.
• Mills & Processors: Avoid running inventories too thin into the peak festival window; stagger purchases to average the market, but secure core volumes before domestic prices fully reflect the Australian shortfall.
• Producers / Exporters (India, Mexico): The combination of Australian supply tightness and firm festival demand argues for patient selling, particularly for large‑calibre Kabuli grades where Mexican product already commands a clear premium.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• India, FOB New Delhi (Kabuli 42–44, 12 mm): Stable to slightly firmer; range expected around 0.95–1.00 EUR/kg as mills selectively restock.
• Mexico, FOB Mexico City (Kabuli 42–44, 12 mm): Steady with a firm bias; premium over Indian origin likely to persist near 1.20–1.22 EUR/kg amid tight high‑calibre supply.
• Australia CNF India (bulk desi/Kabuli mix): Mostly steady in EUR terms (≈625–640 EUR/t), with upside risk if weather further trims the 2026/27 crop.