Chickpeas: Indian Supply Squeeze Keeps Prices Firm as Monsoon Nears

Indian chickpea prices are firming as tightening domestic supplies, costly imports and a record-weak rupee combine to keep upside risks alive into the monsoon period. With yellow-pea inflows sharply reduced and port stocks of imported chickpeas lower, more demand is being forced back into the domestic market, underpinning both desi and kabuli segments. Spot trading in Delhi reflects a steadily tighter balance. Mills have stepped up purchases on recent dips, while daily arrivals from Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh have thinned and stockists remain reluctant sellers. At the same time, high landed costs for imported Australian chickpeas and a 30% import duty on competing yellow peas are capping downside and reinforcing a mildly bullish near-term tone.

Prices & Spreads

In Delhi, Rajasthan-origin chickpeas have risen by about EUR 0.24 per 100 kg to roughly EUR 57.5–57.8 per 100 kg, with Madhya Pradesh material posting similar gains near EUR 56.9–57.2 per 100 kg. Jaipur-line chickpeas are now trading around EUR 57.2–57.5 per 100 kg, while large kabuli grades have advanced more sharply to an estimated EUR 63–67 per 100 kg for medium-quality lots.

Export and FCA offers align with this firmer domestic structure. Recent New Delhi FCA prices for desi and kabuli chickpeas cluster around EUR 0.75–0.97/kg depending on calibre, broadly matching spot appreciation. Mexican kabuli offers remain at a premium, around EUR 1.05–1.20/kg FOB for 12 mm quality, leaving India regionally competitive but not cheap in global terms.

Supply & Demand Balance

Several supportive fundamentals are converging. Daily fresh arrivals in key producing mandis have thinned as farmers increasingly sell to government procurement schemes or hold back in expectation of higher prices. Domestic chickpea output is estimated below last year, and port stocks of imported chickpeas have been drawn down, reducing nearby availability.

On the demand side, dal processing mills have increased buying at lower levels, and demand for chickpea flour (besan) and split chickpeas is expected to improve with the onset of the monsoon. A sharp reduction in yellow-pea imports this season means less competition in besan and dal applications, structurally shifting more consumption toward chickpeas and amplifying the impact of any supply shortfall.

Trade, Currency & Global Context

Imported Australian chickpeas for June–July shipment are indicated around USD 610 per tonne on a cost-and-freight basis. After applying the 30% import duty and accounting for freight and the rupee’s recent slide to a record low, landed values translate into elevated EUR-equivalent costs, limiting the incentive for large replacement volumes.

India’s tightening balance coincides with a thinner flow from major suppliers like Australia, where export availability is not aggressively priced. With imports constrained by duty and currency, and port inventories already reduced, the global market has limited capacity to quickly alleviate India’s domestic squeeze. This alignment of domestic tightening and moderate external supply is key to the current firm tone.

Weather & Seasonal Factors

The rabi chickpea crop is largely harvested, so immediate weather risk is low. However, the approaching southwest monsoon will shape consumption patterns. As rains begin, household and foodservice demand for warm, pulse-based dishes typically increases, supporting offtake of besan and split chickpeas.

Any logistical disruptions from early monsoon showers—such as slower transport or temporary mandi closures—could further restrict visible arrivals, reinforcing the present firmness. At this stage, there is no clear weather-driven relief on the supply side to offset the structural tightness emerging in the Indian balance sheet.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Takeaways

• Bias: Mildly bullish. Prices are expected to retain a firm to slightly higher trend into the coming weeks, barring a sharp, unexpected pickup in arrivals.
• For buyers (millers, food industry): Consider covering a portion of Q3 needs on price dips, especially in mid-grade kabuli, as import alternatives remain expensive in EUR terms.
• For producers and stockists: With thinning arrivals, lower output and constrained imports, holding moderate inventories appears justified, but be prepared for policy or import-parity shifts if prices rally too quickly.
• For traders/exporters: India retains a competitive, though no longer cheap, export position. Monitor rupee moves and freight; further currency weakness could support local prices while tempering EUR-denominated offers.

3-Day Indicative Direction (EUR Terms)

• India – New Delhi desi chickpeas: Sideways to slightly higher (≈+0–1%).
• India – New Delhi kabuli 10–12 mm: Firm bias; potential incremental gains on limited arrivals.
• Mexico – kabuli 12 mm FOB: Broadly steady; small downside risk if Indian firmness attracts more spot offers from alternative origins.