Chickpeas: Maharashtra’s Dry Monsoon Puts Chana Sowing – and Prices – in Focus

Maharashtra’s sub‑normal monsoon and deep rainfall deficits in Marathwada and Vidarbha are raising early concerns about India’s chana (chickpeas) sowing and 2026/27 rabi supply outlook, underpinning a mildly firmer international price tone. Export quotations from India and Mexico are edging higher as the market starts to price in potential acreage loss and heavier reliance on irrigation. Chana is a cornerstone of India’s rabi pulse complex, and Maharashtra’s 17–19% below‑normal monsoon has left soil moisture and groundwater levels inadequate going into the sowing window. The steep shortfalls in Marathwada and Vidarbha mean many farmers may struggle to plant chana at normal levels or will incur higher irrigation costs, with El Niño‑linked rainfall risks keeping traders on alert. For now, supply remains adequate, but any confirmation of weaker sowing progress could turn today’s gentle price firming into a more sustained uptrend.

Prices

Export quotations are showing a clear but still moderate upward trend, led by Indian origins and supported by steady Mexican values.

Incremental gains since late September indicate a market that is gradually pricing in weather‑related supply risk in India rather than reacting to an acute shortage.

Supply & Demand

Maharashtra, a key chana producer, has ended the June–September monsoon with rainfall roughly 17–19% below normal, with Marathwada and Vidarbha showing the steepest deficits in the state. This aligns with reports of about 37–40% shortfall in Marathwada and over 20% in Vidarbha, underscoring the depth of local moisture stress.

Lower soil moisture and incomplete groundwater recharge ahead of the rabi season are likely to curb chana sowing in the most affected districts or force a shift to less water‑demanding crops. Farmers able to sow may rely more on irrigation, raising production costs and increasing sensitivity to any further rainfall deviations linked to El Niño conditions.

On the demand side, India’s structural pulse deficit and policy focus on food inflation containment argue for sustained import interest if domestic chana output underperforms. For now, global supply from other origins appears adequate, but India’s role as a swing buyer for chickpeas and related pulses may become more prominent if Maharashtra’s acreage notably contracts.

Fundamentals & Weather

The fundamental backdrop is gradually tightening from the supply side while still cushioned by current stock levels. Market participants are concentrating on sowing progress data from Maharashtra, particularly in the drought‑hit Marathwada and Vidarbha belts, to refine production expectations for the upcoming marketing year.

El Niño conditions raise the risk of continued rainfall irregularities during the transition to the cool season, although the core monsoon has already withdrawn. Any additional showers in October–November would help replenish surface moisture for late sowing, but forecasts so far suggest only limited relief and no swift reversal of the seasonal deficit.

Higher irrigation demand, elevated energy costs, and potential re‑sowing needs add to the cost structure for farmers. This combination supports a moderately bullish bias in chickpea fundamentals, even if no major supply shock has yet materialised.

Trading Outlook

• Short‑term (next 2–4 weeks): Bias moderately firm. Watch early rabi sowing reports from Maharashtra; any evidence of delayed or reduced chana planting is likely to support further small price gains in Indian FOB quotes.
• Importers / buyers: Consider forward coverage on a staggered basis at current levels, especially for higher counts from India and Mexico, to hedge against potential acreage‑driven tightening later in the season.
• Producers / exporters: Indian sellers may find opportunities to lock in margins on price rallies, but should retain some unpriced volume given ongoing weather and El Niño uncertainties.
• Risk factors: A surprise improvement in late‑season rainfall and sowing progress would cap further upside, while confirmation of significant acreage loss in Marathwada and Vidarbha could trigger a sharper re‑rating of prices.

3‑Day Directional View

• New Delhi FOB chickpeas (IN): Slightly firmer tone likely, with buyers testing higher bids but liquidity still moderate.
• Rajkot FOB chickpeas (IN): Steady to mildly higher as domestic market digests rainfall news and sowing expectations.
• Mexico City FOB chickpeas (MX): Mostly steady with a modestly supportive undertone, tracking Indian sentiment and export demand.