Chickpeas Market Firms as Indian Festive Demand Meets Tight Imports

Chickpeas prices are expected to remain supported into the Diwali period as Indian dal mills face low working stocks, festival demand for chana dal and besan accelerates, and imported supplies stay expensive. Government buffer sales from NAFED should temper extreme spikes, but the overall balance remains tight, especially with concerns around upcoming rabi sowing. Strong festive buying for chana dal and besan is coinciding with limited mill inventories and cautious selling by stockists, keeping spot and export offers well bid. India’s sizeable public buffer of chana is being released only gradually, so processors still depend heavily on the open market. At the same time, water shortages in key chickpea belts raise questions over next rabi acreage, while Australian and Tanzanian import offers are relatively costly. Together, these factors underpin a firm price environment with an upward bias but also a ceiling from potential government stock releases.

Prices

FOB offers for Indian chickpeas remain firm. In Rajkot, India, "Chickpeas dried" (origin IN, FOB) is indicated at EUR 0.97/kg, up from EUR 0.96/kg on 20 September 2026, confirming a modest recent uptick. In New Delhi, larger Kabuli counts are steady to firm, with 42-44 count at EUR 0.97/kg FOB and 44-46 count at EUR 0.94/kg FOB, while 46-48 count trades around EUR 0.91/kg FOB.

Mexican chickpeas show a premium over Indian origins. In Mexico City, 42-44 count Kabuli is quoted at EUR 1.21/kg FOB, unchanged in recent updates, while smaller 75-80 count lots are around EUR 0.85/kg FOB. Domestic mandi prices in India broadly reflect this firmness, with most desi and Kabuli chana markets trading clearly above the official MSP and recent reporting showing strong mandi support across key consuming centers.

Supply & Demand

On the supply side, NAFED procured about 2.2 million tonnes of chana during the rabi season, with roughly 1.95 million tonnes currently held in the central pool. Government plans to offload this buffer in a calibrated way into the domestic market, but volumes released so far remain modest relative to total stocks, keeping commercial supply conditions tight.

Processing mills continue to operate with low working inventories, forcing regular spot purchases. At the same time, imported chickpeas are expensive: Australian chana for October–November shipment is around USD 690/tonne CNF and Tanzanian chana for November–December about USD 715/tonne CNF, limiting the economic incentive to substitute domestic supply with seaborne cargoes. With festival-season consumption of chana dal and besan increasing through Diwali, this configuration keeps the domestic balance snug.

Global supply signals are also supportive. Indian Kabuli chickpea production this season is estimated around 2.2–2.3 million tonnes, significantly below last year, while Canada and other exporters report weather-related harvest delays and uneven yields. These factors, combined with renewed export interest in Indian Kabuli, help sustain firm values and restrict downside price risk in the near term.

Fundamentals & Weather

Domestically, India holds a record overall pulses buffer near 4.5 million tonnes, including about 1.95 million tonnes of chana. This stock acts as a policy lever: periodic auctions and retail interventions can cool any sharp rallies, particularly if festival buying or speculative activity push prices too quickly higher. However, as long as auction volumes stay measured, the large buffer does not translate into outright oversupply at the mill-gate level.

Short-range weather forecasts for central and western India point to broadly normal late-September conditions without imminent extreme rainfall or heat stress over major chickpea belts. Yet water shortages in specific Kabuli-growing areas are raising concern for the upcoming rabi sowing window, with some reports warning that acreage could be constrained if timely replenishing rains fail. This adds a medium-term risk premium, as markets begin to price the possibility of smaller 2026–27 crops even while current buffers appear comfortable on paper.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Demand for chana dal and besan is expected to remain strong through the Diwali season, while tight mill inventories and expensive import options maintain a constructive backdrop. Government stock releases should cap extreme upside, but the near-term skew remains mildly bullish as long as open-market supplies are not significantly expanded.

• For importers / buyers: Consider covering near-term requirements ahead of Diwali on price dips, focusing on Indian origins where FOB levels remain competitive versus other exporters.
• For processors: Maintain slightly higher-than-normal working stocks, given low pipeline inventories and uncertainty over rabi sowing conditions.
• For sellers / exporters: Gradual scale-up selling on rallies is advisable, but keep some optionality for further upside if NAFED auctions stay limited and weather risks intensify.

3-Day Price Direction Snapshot

• India – Rajkot FOB chickpeas: Bias sideways to slightly firmer as mills continue spot buying and export interest stays steady.
• India – New Delhi FOB Kabuli (42-44, 44-46): Largely steady with a mild upward tilt, subject to any fresh government auction announcements.
• Mexico – Mexico City FOB Kabuli: Expected stable at a premium to Indian offers, with limited immediate directional drivers.