Chickpeas Market: Weak Demand Meets Tight Imports and Weather Risk

Chickpeas (chana) prices are under pressure from weak mill demand and heavy government stocks, but a sharp downside looks limited as imports stay constrained and arrivals decline. Overall, the market appears soft yet structurally supported, pointing to a broadly range‑bound trade near current levels. Chana on Lawrence Road eased by roughly ₹50 per quintal to about ₹5,950 per quintal, while chana dal stayed sluggish at ₹6,800–7,200 per quintal. The main drag is subdued buying from dal mills, who cover only near‑term needs amid still‑muted retail offtake. At the same time, imports remain restricted by a 30% duty on peas, arrivals in producing mandis are falling, and port stocks are thinning, all of which help to prevent a steeper price correction. Internationally, Australian chana offers for June–December shipment are steady, underlining that import replacement is not cheap for India and providing an additional floor to domestic prices.

Prices

Chana at Lawrence Road declined by around ₹50 per quintal over the week to roughly ₹5,950 per quintal (about EUR 67–68/tonne at current FX assumptions), reflecting persistent selling pressure from weak mill buying. Chana dal remained slow at ₹6,800–7,200 per quintal, equivalent to roughly EUR 77–82/tonne, signalling that downstream processing margins are under strain and mills are reluctant to build inventory beyond immediate consumption. Spot offers for Indian dried chickpeas in New Delhi (FCA) also softened in late June: large 42–44 count traded near EUR 0.93/kg, down from EUR 0.98/kg a week earlier, with smaller sizes (46–48 and 58–60 count) now around EUR 0.87/kg and EUR 0.79/kg respectively. This confirms a mild but broad‑based easing across domestic grades. In contrast, Mexican chickpeas on FOB Mexico City basis are indicated near EUR 0.79/kg for smaller sizes and around EUR 1.18/kg for 42–44 count, keeping Indian origin broadly competitive in international trade.

Supply & Demand

Dal mills are currently purchasing only for short‑term requirements, as retail demand for chana‑based products remains lacklustre. Besan consumption is expected to improve once the monsoon turns more active and seasonal food demand picks up, but this shift has not yet materialised in stronger buying. On the supply side, arrivals in producing mandis are declining and port‑side stocks are gradually reducing, indicating that physical availability is tightening at the margin. This, together with earlier reports of firm sentiment in May driven by lower arrivals and MSP support, points to an underlying balance rather than oversupply. Imports remain tightly restricted. A 30% import duty on peas is curbing inflows of a key substitute pulse and indirectly supporting chana consumption. At the same time, higher global freight and steady overseas offers make large‑scale import replacement unattractive, reinforcing domestic dependence on local crop and government stocks.

Fundamentals & Weather

A key bearish overhang is the government’s sizable chana stock. Ongoing or potential sales into the open market discourage aggressive stock‑building by trade houses and cap upside rallies, particularly while consumer demand is subdued. Weather adds a medium‑term layer of uncertainty. India’s southwest monsoon in 2026 has started with a notable rainfall deficit and stalled progress, linked to developing El Niño conditions, though a revival is now underway towards the end of June and the season is still forecast at about 90–92% of the long‑period average. For pulses, including chana, any prolonged monsoon shortfall could trim kharif acreage and support prices later in the season. Australian chana offers are reported steady at around USD 590/tonne C&F for June–July shipment, USD 597/tonne for July–August, and about USD 620/tonne for bulk November–December positions. Converted at prevailing FX, these levels translate to roughly EUR 540–575/tonne C&F, underscoring that imported replacement is not significantly cheaper than domestic supply.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

Overall sentiment in chana is weak but not decisively bearish. Prices are likely to remain range‑bound in the near term, with limited downside from current levels as declining arrivals, constrained imports and an expected seasonal lift in besan demand during the active monsoon phase gradually offset the drag from government stocks.

• Millers / Domestic Users: Continue hand‑to‑mouth buying in the very short term, but consider modest forward coverage if prices dip further towards recent lows, given tightening arrivals and potential weather‑related risks later in the season.
• Traders / Stockists: Avoid aggressive long positions while government selling remains a threat, but look for selective accumulation on declines, especially if monsoon rains underperform and rural demand starts recovering.
• Importers: With Australian C&F offers steady and not deeply discounted versus domestic levels, large replacement imports into India appear unattractive; focus on niche quality or timing spreads rather than volume bets.

In the next 3 trading days, chana prices on key Indian mandis and New Delhi FCA basis are expected to track a narrow range with a slight upward bias, contingent on continued monsoon revival and no fresh government stock releases.