Chinese adzuki beans face soft July–September exports but firm price support as 2026 acreage drops 27.6% and weather risks loom for the new crop.
Prices
FOB prices for standard Chinese red adzuki are assessed to trade in a broad sideways range of EUR 1.28–1.34/kg through the July–September 2026 off‑season, with organic and large‑grain lots maintaining a clear premium.
Current broader bean benchmarks in Beijing show adzuki around this band: conventional red adzuki (5.0 mm up) is indicated at about EUR 1.31/kg FOB, while organic red adzuki is near EUR 1.39/kg FOB, slightly below recent peaks but broadly stable. Mung beans and kidney beans have eased 1–2 cents since mid‑August, underscoring a mild softening tone across Chinese specialty beans rather than any sharp sell‑off.
Supply & Demand
Exporter feedback confirms a pronounced seasonal slowdown in China’s adzuki exports from May onwards, with consecutive double‑digit month‑on‑month declines in May (‑14.3%) and June (‑12%). Northeast Asia buyers are sitting on their hands, focusing on small prompt shipments rather than forward coverage, which caps near‑term demand and weighs on FOB offers.
On the supply side, China’s domestic structure remains tight. Imports cover only around 10% of national adzuki demand, so foreign origins cannot fundamentally loosen the balance. Farmer stocks in key producing regions such as Heilongjiang are already very low, with on‑farm remaining inventory reportedly below 10% of last season’s crop, leaving limited cushion if demand recovers into Q4.
Fundamentals & Weather
The medium‑term bullish driver is a sharp reduction in 2026 national adzuki plantings. Total area is estimated at only about 0.89 million mu, down 27.64% year‑on‑year, with Northeast China (including Heilongjiang) seeing cuts of 30–40%. This contraction points to significantly tighter new‑crop supply and higher raw bean procurement costs from October 2026 into the first half of 2027.
August–September is the critical pod‑setting and filling window for adzuki. In a year of much smaller acreage, weather disturbances such as early frost or prolonged cloudy, rainy spells can have an outsized impact on yields. Current August conditions in key Northeastern areas are seasonally warm with intermittent rainfall, but any shift towards colder or excessively wet patterns would likely trigger a rapid upward repricing of both domestic raw beans and export FOB levels.
Trading Outlook (Next 1–3 Months)
- Exporters: Use current EUR 1.28–1.34/kg range for standard adzuki to selectively roll small nearby business, but avoid over‑selling Q4–Q1 positions given acreage‑driven upside risk and very low farm stocks.
- Importers (Japan, Korea, Malaysia): The window for securing modest discounts during the summer lull is still open, but coverage into early 2027 should be gradually extended before September ends, especially for organic and large‑grain specifications.
- Domestic traders in China: Inventory levels are limited; consider building a measured long bias on significant dips, particularly if August–September weather in Northeast China turns adverse during pod‑filling.
3‑Day Directional Price Indication
- CN FOB Beijing – Adzuki, conventional: Stable to slightly soft within EUR 1.28–1.34/kg; small spot deals may print at the lower end on weak export demand.
- CN FOB Beijing – Adzuki, organic / large grain: Range‑bound with firm premiums; downside limited as sellers resist cuts amid higher expected new‑crop costs.
- CN domestic raw beans (Northeast origin): Mostly stable; any negative weather headlines during pod‑setting could quickly flip sentiment to mildly firmer.