Chinese kidney and red beans trade in a narrow range with tight old-crop supply. Expect Q4 seasonal correction of USD 30–60/t if weather and yields normalise.
Prices
Exporter feedback indicates export-standard red kidney beans in Shanxi Xinzhou cans held broadly stable in January–August 2026 at about USD 1450–1485/t, with only isolated lower deals. Converted at roughly 0.91 EUR/USD, this implies around EUR 1.32–1.35/kg FOB for mainstream export grades. Market surveys show 90% of participants expect prices to stay flat in the near term, with only 5% seeing clear upside and 5% expecting a downside break, confirming the current high, but directionless, plateau.
Latest indicative international FOB offers place Chinese dark red kidney beans around EUR 1.33/kg (conventional/organic), while large white kidney beans are quoted near EUR 1.97–2.08/kg. This aligns with current Chinese FOB indications for dark red beans at about EUR 1.33/kg and large white beans around EUR 1.73–1.80/kg from Beijing, confirming firm premiums for large whites and stable differentials to red and black beans.
Supply & Demand
In late August to September, the tail-end of the old-crop period is characterised by tight remaining stocks and farmer holding behaviour. Old-crop high-quality lots are scarce, and farmers remain reluctant sellers, which is helping keep export-standard prices near USD 1455–1485/t despite limited fresh demand. Traders report that premium, clean cargoes continue to transact at the upper end or slightly above the range, reflecting quality scarcity rather than broad-based demand strength.
On the demand side, export enquiries are steady but not overheated, consistent with the "difficult to rise, difficult to fall" assessment. International buyers show price sensitivity at current levels, especially in bulk tenders, but still rely on Chinese supply for dark red and small black kidney beans. This keeps a floor under the market, yet caps upside as buyers can switch between origins or varieties when differentials widen.
Fundamentals & Medium-Term Band
The medium-term reference band for benchmark red kidney beans is assessed at USD 1440–1500/t domestically. Under a base case of normal weather and normal yields, prices are expected to see a seasonal Q4 retreat of about USD 30–60/t from current levels, pulling values back toward USD 1440–1485/t as new-crop volumes arrive. That would translate into a moderate easing rather than a sharp correction, keeping the market historically firm.
However, if early frost or drought in key producing areas materially impacts quality or output, prices are likely to hold above the upper boundary of roughly USD 1485/t. In that scenario, quality beans would continue to trade at a notable premium, and the expected Q4 dip could be shallow or delayed. Variety spreads would probably widen further, with large white and selected organic lines outperforming bulk dark red and black beans.
Seasonal Pattern: August Gap vs. Q4 New-Crop
In late August to September, the "green-yellow" transitional window between old and new crop typically sees firm to slightly stronger prices because of tight old-crop stocks and pre-harvest risk premiums. This year follows the script: export standards are reported stable at around USD 1455–1485/t, with high-quality lots showing a marginally stronger tone. For buyers with short-term coverage gaps, waiting for meaningful downside during this period appears risky.
From October to November, when new-crop beans enter the market in volume, old- and new-crop price spreads historically converge. The current assessment assigns a high probability to a "high open, lower close" pattern for new-crop: early offers may initially test above mid-range, but as harvest progresses and more supply reaches exporters, benchmark prices are expected to gravitate back to USD 1440–1485/t, delivering the anticipated USD 30–60/t seasonal correction.
Trading Outlook
- Short-term (late August–September): Market is tight but directionless; buyers needing nearby coverage should secure at least partial volumes now, prioritising quality lots before new-crop risk is fully priced out.
- Q4 hedging: Under normal weather, target re-entry for larger purchases closer to USD 1440–1455/t as new-crop supply builds; avoid chasing late-August highs unless quality is critical.
- Weather risk strategy: If credible reports of early frost or drought emerge in key Chinese bean regions, expect the upper band above USD 1485/t to hold; in that case, roll over coverage and consider locking in quality premiums early.
- Variety selection: Maintain flexibility between dark red, black and large white beans, using current EUR 1.33/kg vs. nearly EUR 2.00/kg large-white benchmarks to optimise blends and manage cost-in-use.