China Beans: Old-Crop Floor Meets Weak Summer Demand and Smaller New Crop

Old-crop bean prices in China are well supported by depleted farmer stocks and high trade holding costs, while seasonal demand softness is capping near-term rallies. Forward, a sharp reduction in 2026 adzuki bean acreage points to tighter new-crop supply and an underlying bullish bias once demand normalises. China’s beans market is currently characterised by a tight spot supply but lacklustre off-take. Around 90% of farmers’ old-crop beans in major producing regions are reported sold, leaving very limited primary stocks in the countryside. Traders hold relatively expensive inventory (raw beans about USD 1.31–1.35/kg, roughly EUR 1.20–1.24/kg at recent FX), which is providing a strong floor to domestic prices. At the same time, hot summer weather favours cold drinks and lighter food choices over traditional coarse grains and pulses, while processors are using the seasonal lull to shut down for maintenance and de-stock, leaving both domestic and export buying cautious.

Prices

Domestic bean prices in China are holding in a narrow range, supported by tight old-crop availability but checked by weak short-term demand. Trade inventories bought at around EUR 1.20–1.24/kg equivalent leave little room for deep discounts without incurring losses, so any downside is likely to be shallow and short-lived.

Export-oriented offers from China show a broadly steady picture with a slightly firmer tone in some segments. Recent FOB Beijing levels (EUR) include roughly 1.32/kg for conventional red adzuki (5.0 mm up), 1.40/kg for organic adzuki, 1.43/kg for conventional mung beans 3.8 mm up and 1.54/kg for organic mung. Kidney beans from China range around 1.07–1.76/kg depending on colour and size, with only marginal week‑on‑week changes. European and Brazilian offers for other bean types remain broadly stable and serve mainly as an external benchmark rather than direct competition for Chinese adzuki.

Supply & Demand

Supply – old crop nearly exhausted: In China’s main bean-producing areas, farmers have sold about 90% of their old-crop stocks. Remaining volumes at village level are very limited, concentrating market power in the hands of traders and processors. With trade cost levels near EUR 1.20–1.24/kg equivalent for raw adzuki, sellers show little willingness to cut prices aggressively.

Demand – seasonal off-peak: Summer in China is a structurally weak consumption window for coarse grains and beans. Heat drives consumers towards cold beverages and light, fresh foods, depressing demand for traditional cooked bean dishes. Processors are taking advantage of this seasonal lull to conduct maintenance and run down inventories, while both domestic clients and overseas buyers are purchasing cautiously and largely hand-to-mouth.

New-crop outlook – clear tightening signal: For 2026, China’s red adzuki bean planted area is estimated at about 890,000 mu, down roughly 27.6% year on year, with the Northeast core region seeing even steeper cuts of 30–40%. This indicates a substantial drop in potential new-crop output, especially from the country’s highest-yielding zone. The market is increasingly pricing in a tighter balance sheet for the 2026/27 season, lending forward support even as nearby demand lags.

Weather & Crop Conditions

Summer 2026 in central and eastern China is expected to feature above-normal temperatures according to recent climate analyses, implying persistent heat stress risk for late vegetative and pod-filling stages of pulses in some areas. At the same time, typical monsoonal variability means localised heavy rains remain possible, complicating late-season fieldwork and quality outcomes.

For the Northeast adzuki belt, current indications point to generally warm summer conditions with no clear signal of excessive late-season moisture at national scale, though short-term rainfall variability can still affect harvest logistics. Given the already reduced area, even modest weather-related yield or quality losses could significantly tighten effective market supply in 2026/27.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Stocks: With farmers’ sell‑through around 90%, commercial inventories are the main buffer, and they are held at relatively high cost, underpinning a hard floor under spot prices.
• Processing activity: Many factories are either idled or running at reduced rates for maintenance and inventory clean‑up, temporarily reducing spot demand for raw beans.
• Trade flows: External demand remains cautious, with buyers aware of tight forward supply but still leveraging the current seasonal lull to negotiate; this favours gradual rather than explosive price appreciation near term.
• New-crop acreage: A near 28% national cut in 2026 adzuki area – and up to 40% in parts of the Northeast – is the single most bullish structural driver for the next marketing year.

Trading Outlook

• For processors and domestic users: Use the current demand lull to secure a portion of forward coverage, especially for high-quality adzuki, while prices are anchored by seasonal weakness but before reduced 2026 supply fully prices in.
• For traders: Avoid deep discounting of remaining old-crop positions given elevated holding costs and limited farmer stocks. Consider rolling some length into forward positions on signs of renewed autumn demand.
• For importers/export buyers: Hand-to-mouth buying remains feasible in the very short term, but a strategy that gradually extends coverage into Q4 2026 and early 2027 looks prudent in light of significant acreage cuts.

3-Day Directional Price Indications (EUR)

• China FOB Beijing adzuki (red, 5.0 mm): Sideways to slightly firm over the next three days, with bids and offers likely to cluster around EUR 1.30–1.35/kg.
• China FOB Beijing mung beans (3.8 mm): Mostly stable, trading in roughly EUR 1.40–1.45/kg as trade floors hold and demand remains modest.
• China FOB Beijing kidney beans (mixed types): Narrow, stable range expected around EUR 1.05–1.75/kg depending on type and quality, with no strong catalyst for immediate breakouts.