China beans market: high adzuki farmer selling progress, tight remaining stocks, cautious demand and new-crop expectations keep prices narrowly firm.
Prices
Spot adzuki prices in China are underpinned by tight farmer stocks and higher expected production costs, resulting in a slightly firm but not explosive market. FOB Beijing references for red adzuki beans (conventional, 5.0 mm up) are currently around EUR 1.28/kg, with organic lots near EUR 1.35/kg, both marginally higher than two weeks ago in EUR terms. Mung beans and kidney beans show a similar, mildly upward bias, with organic mung beans around EUR 1.52/kg and conventional 3.8 mm up at about EUR 1.46/kg, while dark red kidney beans (conventional) trade close to EUR 1.33/kg.
Compared with late August, most Chinese bean varieties have moved in a very tight corridor, typically within EUR 0.02/kg, reflecting a market held between low remaining old‑crop availability and the expectation of heavier new‑crop selling from October onward. Export demand remains subdued, in line with structurally weaker global pulses consumption, but quality‑sensitive and organic segments continue to earn notable premiums.
| Product (CN, FOB Beijing) | Current price (EUR/kg) | Change vs. early Sept (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|
| Adzuki, red, 5.0 mm, conventional | 1.28 | ≈ +0.02 |
| Adzuki, red, organic, 5.0 mm | 1.35 | ≈ 0.00 to +0.01 |
| Mung beans, 3.8 mm up | 1.46 | +0.01 |
| Mung beans, organic | 1.52 | +0.01 |
| Kidney beans, dark red | 1.33 | +0.01 |
Supply & Demand
In China’s main adzuki areas, average farmer sales for the 2025 crop are already around 94%, with Heilongjiang’s Shangzhi area near 95%, Jilin at roughly 98% and Jiangsu close to 99%. This leaves only small on‑farm residual stocks, particularly in the Northeast, where many growers display clear reluctance to sell at lower levels because they expect reduced new‑season output. In the Northeast production zones, trader inventories vary widely from 200–500 tonnes, with a few larger holders near 1,000 tonnes, while many processors keep minimal stocks and wait for new crop arrivals.
On the demand side, consumption regions mainly purchase on a need‑to‑cover basis with little evidence of aggressive forward buying. Localized rigid demand provides a floor, but there are few signs of strong restocking ahead of the harvest. Nationally, old‑crop supply for several bean categories is temporarily tight—exacerbated in some origins by recent heavy rainfall and quality losses—yet globally, pulses demand remains structurally softer and Chinese bean exports more restricted than in previous years, limiting the scope for a broad‑based price rally.
Fundamentals & Weather
Market participants broadly expect adzuki prices to hold steady to slightly higher in the near term, with sentiment split about 50% stable and 50% bullish. Farmers’ remaining stocks are limited, and anticipated declines in new‑season adzuki output support a firm cost base, encouraging growers to resist discounting. At the same time, the industry largely views the coming harvest as adequate to meet domestic demand, especially once new beans flow into trade channels from late September and October.
Weather remains a key short‑term variable. Persistent rains in parts of Yunnan and pockets of Northeast China have tightened compliant old‑crop bean supply, particularly where quality downgrades and moisture issues reduce deliverable volumes. Over the next few weeks, forecasts point to continued relatively warm, at times wetter‑than‑normal conditions in segments of Northeast China, which could influence harvest timing and drying costs but are not yet seen as a major yield threat. Overall, fundamentals point to a transition from current, quality‑driven tightness toward more balanced supply as new crop enters the market.
Trading Outlook
- Domestic buyers / processors: Maintain cautious, phased coverage. With old‑crop stocks tight but new‑crop pressure approaching, avoid chasing short‑term spikes and target incremental purchases on minor pullbacks around the main harvest window (October–November).
- Exporters / traders: Focus on high‑quality and organic adzuki and mung beans, where premiums are likely to persist despite limited global demand. Secure supply early from regions with higher farmer sales progress and proven drying capacity.
- Farmers: Given low remaining stocks and expectations for lower new‑season yields, a strategy of gradual sales rather than one‑off bulk selling appears sensible. Consider holding a portion of quality lots into late Q4 2026 or Q1 2027 if storage and cash‑flow conditions allow.
3‑Day Directional Outlook (China, key beans)
- Adzuki (red, CN FOB): Sideways to slightly firm; tight farmer stocks and quality concerns support prices ahead of broader harvest pressure.
- Mung beans (CN FOB): Largely stable; modest softness possible as early new‑crop lots appear, but no sharp correction expected within three days.
- Kidney and other beans (CN FOB): Mostly steady; export demand remains tepid, but limited spot availability prevents meaningful downside in the very short term.