China Millet Market Softens as Demand Slows and New Crop Approaches

Millet prices in China face short‑term downward pressure, as new-crop acreage improves supply expectations while summer temperatures dampen demand for millet products. Market participants report that some millet varieties have already seen price declines, with levels stabilising only after sellers relaxed their holding stance and buyers continued to rely mainly on existing stocks. At the same time, procurement costs for raw millet remain broadly stable, so the current adjustment is driven more by supply expectations and soft consumption than by cost inflation. International offers from Ukraine are steady, indicating that today’s weakness is largely a domestic, seasonal phenomenon rather than a global price shock.

Prices & Market Tone

Feedback from key regions in China indicates that prices for some millet varieties have started to edge lower and are expected to weaken further next week. After the initial decline, quotations have shown signs of stabilising as sellers gradually accept weaker levels and buyers remain cautious. Raw millet procurement costs are reported as temporarily stable, suggesting limited support for a significant rebound in the very short term.

Export and reference prices also underline a soft but not collapsing market. Recent indicative FOB Beijing offers for hulled yellow millet kernels stand around EUR 0.78–0.85/kg, while comparable Ukrainian products are broadly steady near EUR 0.67/kg for conventional and around EUR 1.20/kg for organic kernels, with no major week‑on‑week moves. This points to relative stability in external benchmarks while domestic spot values in China adjust downward mainly due to local fundamentals.

Supply & Demand Drivers

Supply: New-crop millet acreage in China is reported slightly higher than last year, and crop conditions are generally good in most producing areas. This reinforces expectations of comfortable supply later in the season. Some stockholding traders are becoming less willing to hold high-priced inventory, leading to active selling pressure and contributing to the recent price declines before a period of relative stability.

Demand: Rising temperatures are weighing on consumption of millet-based foods, especially hot millet porridge and traditional products, so end-user demand continues to soften into early summer. Many rice and millet processing plants still hold raw millet inventories, and their procurement is focused on working down existing stock rather than building new positions. In addition, some mills have implemented temporary shutdowns, further curbing short-term raw millet purchases and reinforcing the weak demand profile.

Fundamentals & Weather Outlook

Costs and margins: Procurement costs for millet are described as temporarily stable, meaning processors do not yet face strong cost-driven pressure to raise finished product prices. Instead, current margins are being defended by moderating raw material prices and cautious production schedules. The combination of steady costs and easing spot prices creates a slightly more comfortable environment for buyers, but also restricts upside for farmers and traders holding old-crop stocks.

Weather outlook (China focus): Short-term weather in the main millet-growing belts of northern China in mid-June is seasonally warm with no widespread, acute stress reported. Conditions remain broadly favourable for crop development, aligning with the view that new-crop prospects are generally good. Absent a sudden shift to prolonged heat or drought, supply expectations for later in the marketing year are likely to stay on the comfortable side, limiting any strong near-term price recovery.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Domestic buyers (mills, food producers): Consider staggered, small-volume purchases over the next 1–2 weeks, as prices for some varieties are expected to edge lower or stay soft. Use existing inventories first, but maintain minimum safety stocks in case of localised weather issues.
• Traders and stockholders: With new-crop acreage up and demand seasonally weak, the risk of further downside in older, high-cost stocks is rising. Gradual destocking at current levels may reduce exposure, especially for lower-quality or off-spec lots most vulnerable to discounts.
• Export-oriented processors: International reference prices are relatively stable, so current domestic softness could offer an opportunity to secure raw material for forward export contracts, particularly in higher-value organic and premium segments.

3‑Day Price Indication (China Focus)

• North China (raw millet for food use): Slightly weaker bias over the next three days, with some local markets likely to test marginally lower levels before stabilising.
• North-East and North-West China (processing and feed demand): Mostly stable to slightly softer, as processors rely on existing stocks and refrain from aggressive restocking.
• FOB Beijing kernels (export quality): Largely stable in EUR terms, with only minor adjustments possible driven by freight and currency moves rather than fundamentals.