China Millet Prices Edge Higher as Weather Stays Favourable and Demand Steady

Millet prices in China are firming slightly, supported by steady food and niche feed demand, while weather in key growing regions remains largely favourable and export interest stays moderate. Price moves are small, but the tone is clearly stable-to-firm for high‑quality hulled kernels. China’s domestic grain balance remains comfortable, with policy support focused on corn and wheat, yet millet benefits indirectly from resilient demand for healthy grains and some substitution in feed rations. Recent trade data confirm strong overall Chinese import and export activity, but without any disruptive signal specific to millet or other minor cereals, keeping the market mostly driven by domestic fundamentals. Weather in North and Northeast China is seasonally warm with scattered showers rather than stress conditions, which helps cap any sharp upside in prices over the coming days.

Prices

FOB Beijing offers for hulled yellow millet on 25 June 2026 show a modest uptick versus mid‑June, indicating a stable but slightly firmer market for Chinese origin. Broader reference data place China’s average millet export price around USD 0.80/kg in June 2026, broadly aligned with these indications and underlining that the current levels are not extreme by recent standards.

Ukrainian millet indications (FCA/FOB Odesa) remain well below Chinese levels on a EUR/kg basis, reflecting freight, quality mix and risk premia, but these have eased slightly in mid‑June and do not yet exert strong pressure on Chinese FOB prices. Global coarse grain outlooks from major agencies point to slightly higher 2025/26 millet output, which caps longer‑term upside, yet this effect is gradual and not strongly visible in spot Chinese prices.

Supply & Demand

China’s overall grain supply remains ample, with official June assessments describing a generally balanced situation for major crops; this reduces the risk of spillover panic buying into minor grains such as millet. Domestic demand is supported by steady consumption of traditional coarse grains and healthy foods, while feed compounders mainly rely on corn and barley, using millet only in niche applications, which limits volatility.

Internationally, the latest coarse grain outlook from the USDA shows rising global millet production for 2025/26, alongside high barley and adequate corn supplies, keeping world buyers relatively relaxed. Strong Chinese foreign trade growth in the first five months of 2026 confirms robust macro demand but does not yet signal any sharp change in minor grain import or export policies, so trade flows for millet are likely to stay stable in the short term.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Region: China)

Weather in key millet‑growing areas of North and Northeast China in late June is seasonally warm with intermittent showers, without clear signs of either severe drought or flooding stress. Publicly available market commentary on Chinese coarse grains has recently focused more on earlier weather impacts to corn than on current stress to minor cereals, suggesting that millet stands in comparatively favourable condition.

With soil moisture generally adequate and no immediate heatwave threat highlighted in recent agricultural updates, short‑term production risk for the new millet crop appears limited. This weather backdrop helps explain why prices are firm rather than aggressively bullish: buyers are willing to pay slightly more for nearby coverage but see no reason to panic ahead of harvest.

Fundamentals & Drivers

• Macro trade backdrop: China’s goods trade value in May 2026 grew nearly 17% year on year, signalling healthy external demand and smooth port logistics, which supports confidence in agricultural exports, including specialty grains like millet.
• Feed grain competition: International projections show rising global supplies of other feed grains (corn, barley, oats), keeping substitution options open for importers and limiting any sharp demand spike for millet from the feed channel.
• Policy & regulation: Recent Chinese trade and licensing measures have concentrated on industrial and strategic products, with no fresh restrictions reported on minor cereals in the last few days, leaving millet trade governed by normal commercial economics.

Trading Outlook (Next 3–7 Days)

• Buyers (food & niche feed): Consider covering near‑term needs at current FOB Beijing levels; the market tone is mildly bullish but weather and global grain supply argue against a sharp rally in the immediate term.
• Sellers (Chinese exporters): Maintain offer discipline slightly above recent lows; with global coarse grain supply comfortable, aggressively discounting is unlikely to generate proportionally higher volume.
• Importers comparing origins: Monitor Ukrainian and other Black Sea offers as a cheaper alternative on a delivered basis, but factor in freight, quality, and risk differences; no immediate trigger is visible to force Chinese prices lower.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (Region: CN)

Given the stable weather outlook and comfortable wider grain supplies, the most likely scenario for the next three days is a narrow trading range with a gentle upward bias, driven by routine nearby demand rather than any new shock.