China Mung Bean Market: Tight Balance Meets Capped Summer Rally

China’s mung bean market is sitting in a structurally tight balance, but cooler-than-normal summer weather and looming new-crop arrivals are preventing a full-blown price spike. FOB quotes in Beijing remain elevated and mostly range-bound, with only modest easing from recent highs. Summer demand for mung-bean-based drinks and sprouts has not fully materialised due to lower temperatures and more mixed weather in parts of South China, limiting consumption-driven rallies. At the same time, import constraints from Myanmar and sharply lower domestic circulating stocks keep the fundamental floor high. With planting area slightly higher and new-crop arrivals expected from late August, traders have turned more cautious, reducing aggressive forward buying and leaving the market in a stalemate at relatively high levels.

Prices

FOB Beijing prices for conventional mung beans (3.8 mm up) are currently indicated around EUR 1.43/kg, with organic mung beans near EUR 1.52/kg, broadly flat to slightly softer versus mid-July peaks. Other Chinese beans show a mixed picture: conventional large white kidney beans are around EUR 1.78/kg, down from early-July levels above EUR 1.90/kg, while small black organic kidney beans have edged up to about EUR 1.08/kg.

This confirms the pattern of high but largely range-bound pricing: fundamentals justify a firm level, yet demand-side underperformance and proximity to the new season cap further upside. Compared with Brazilian and UK-origin dry beans, Chinese mung beans continue to command a premium, reflecting both domestic tightness and their role as a summer cooling staple.

Supply & Demand

China’s circulating mung bean stocks at the start of 2026 are estimated about 40% lower year-on-year, leaving a supply gap of roughly 150,000 tonnes that must be covered by other origins. Stricter pesticide-residue checks on Myanmar-origin green mung beans have slowed customs clearance and pulled total imports down by around 21% year-on-year, tightening high-quality sprouting grades in particular.

On the demand side, the market is in the key summer consumption window, but this year’s pattern is uneven. High temperatures normally trigger strong demand for cooling drinks and desserts, yet parts of South China have seen lower-than-usual temperatures and periods of cloud and rain, tempering retail offtake. As a result, the classical summer demand spike has been weaker, and traders describe the current (late July) phase as a high-price stalemate rather than an explosive rally.

Weather & New-Crop Outlook

Weather is the main near-term swing factor. Hot, sunny spells in North China still have the potential to spur short bursts of consumption and price strength, especially around urban beverages and sprouting demand. However, if southern regions continue to experience relatively cool, cloudy or rainy conditions, the boost to terminal demand will likely remain below historical norms.

Structurally, the market is also looking ahead to new-crop arrivals. Domestic mung bean planting area in 2026 has increased slightly versus last year, and the first new-season beans are expected to reach the market from late August. This expectation is already restraining middlemen: many wholesalers and processors are buying hand-to-mouth, having partially priced in a medium-term softening once fresh supplies come in, even though old-crop supply elasticity is currently very weak.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Stocks and imports: Nationwide circulating inventories have fallen about 40% year-on-year, while Myanmar imports are down roughly 21%, leaving a sizeable structural gap that other exporters must fill at higher cost.
• Seasonal demand: Summer cooling demand is present but underwhelming compared with prior years, as cooler or wetter weather in parts of the South slows beverage and dessert sales that normally drive peak mung bean usage.
• Forward expectations: Knowledge of slightly higher domestic acreage and the proximity of late-August new-crop arrivals are suppressing aggressive restocking, keeping current prices locked in a high but sticky range rather than trending sharply higher.
• Cross-bean signals: Softening in some Chinese kidney bean FOB quotes, alongside steady adzuki prices, suggests broader dry bean demand is cautious, reinforcing the picture of buyers prioritising liquidity over volume.

Trading Outlook

• Short-term (next 1–2 weeks): Expect high, range-bound mung bean prices with a slight downside bias if cooler or unsettled weather persists and no new supply shock emerges.
• Buyers / Processors: Maintain staggered, hand-to-mouth coverage through early August, adding only modest extra volume on any weather-driven dips, while avoiding large long positions ahead of new-crop entry.
• Producers / Exporters: Use the current tight old-crop balance to defend offer levels, but be prepared for increased resistance once market participants gain more clarity on new-season yields and quality.
• Traders: Focus on spreads between old and new crop and between premium sprouting grades and feed/industrial grades; the structural shortage of high-quality beans still supports a premium, even in a capped flat-price environment.

3-Day Directional Outlook (EUR, FOB focus)

• China – Mung beans (Beijing FOB): Slightly softer to sideways; expected move within −0.5% to +0.5% as weather and demand remain balanced.
• China – Kidney and adzuki beans (Beijing FOB): Mostly stable with a mild downward tilt for large white kidney beans amid cautious buying.
• Brazil / UK dry beans (FOB): Largely steady in EUR terms, tracking stable global pulse market sentiment with limited spill‑over from China’s mung bean-specific tightness.