China Pine Nuts FOB Dalian Hold Firm as Trade Flows Stay Supportive

FOB Dalian pine nut prices are stable this week, with no change versus last quotation and only minor moves over the past month. Firm export demand from Russia and Pakistan into China and active seasonal consumption keep the market underpinned, while benign spring weather in northeast China removes immediate crop risk. China’s pine nut supply chain enters late Q1 with balanced fundamentals. Export flows from Siberia and Mongolia into China remain robust, and Pakistan’s strong 2024–25 pine nut trade with China underscores solid downstream demand in key urban markets. Tree nut import volatility into China has been more pronounced in other categories, but pine nuts benefit from niche, high-value positioning and stable festival-driven consumption. Domestic processors in Jilin and other northeastern provinces continue to scale value-added exports, reinforcing competition for raw kernels.

Prices

All prices converted to EUR at an indicative 1 USD = 0.92 EUR for comparison only.

Over the past three weeks, both grades have traded in a tight range of roughly ±€0.10/kg, pointing to a broadly balanced spot market with neither strong selling pressure nor aggressive buying.

Supply & Demand

China remains a key hub in global pine nut trade, both as importer of in-shell nuts from Mongolia, Russia, Afghanistan and Pakistan and as exporter of kernels. Russian Siberian regions such as Tomsk have expanded exports to China, supporting raw material availability for processors and coastal traders, including those shipping FOB Dalian.

On the demand side, Chinese imports of Pakistani pine nuts exceeded USD 18 million in 2024, and Beijing alone took over 758 tonnes in 2025, confirming strong end-market appetite in major cities. Tree nut imports overall into China have shown volatility, but pine nuts are supported by premium snack positioning and festival demand, cushioning them from the sharper corrections seen in some other nuts.

Fundamentals & Weather

Northeast China’s processing industry, particularly in Jilin, continues to grow export volumes, adding steady structural demand for raw kernels. For now, pipeline stocks from the 2025 harvest and cross-border inflows from Russia and Mongolia appear adequate, which limits immediate upside in FOB quotes at Dalian.

Weather in Dalian over the next three days (20–22 March 2026) is forecast to be mainly dry with hazy sunshine and mild to warm temperatures, with daytime highs mostly in the upper teens to high 20s °C and no significant rainfall. These conditions are neutral to slightly positive for logistics and port operations, with no weather-related disruptions expected for short-term shipments.

Short-Term Outlook

• Next 3 days (CN, FOB Dalian): Prices for pine nuts 950 and 1200 are expected to remain broadly steady in EUR terms, within ±€0.05–0.10/kg of current indications, given comfortable supply and regular export demand.
• Risk bias: Slight upside risk if Russian export flows are temporarily slowed by logistics or if Chinese domestic retail demand remains elevated after recent festival promotions.
• Downside constraints: Growing kernel export programs from China and diversified import origins (Mongolia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Russia) reduce the likelihood of a sharp near-term correction.

Trading Pointers

• Buyers (EU/MEA): Consider layering small-volume coverage at current stable EUR-equivalent FOB Dalian levels, focusing on nearby shipments while monitoring any tightening in Russian or Pakistani supply channels.
• Sellers (CN exporters): With flat FOB quotes and firm underlying demand, prioritize margin protection over volume; avoid deep discounts unless currency moves sharply against the EUR.
• Logistics: Use the current period of benign weather and stable port operations in Dalian to fix shipment windows and minimize congestion risk.