China Pumpkin Seeds: Vanishing Stocks Meet Firm Export Demand

China’s pumpkin seed market is heading into the 2026/27 crop with sharply reduced inventories and still-robust export momentum, keeping prices under upward risk despite a recent minor softening. Market conditions are shaped by an unusual combination of almost depleted old-crop stocks and structurally stronger demand for dehulled kernels, oil and protein ingredients. With domestic carryover falling from a typical ~200,000 t to roughly 60,000 t, the market is set to enter the new season effectively at “zero buffer” just as export-led demand remains strong. This tightening balance is likely to limit downside for EUR-based FOB prices and could trigger renewed volatility around the arrival of new crop from September onwards.

Prices

Current CN FOB pumpkin seed kernel prices in late August 2026 show a slight easing but remain historically firm, reflecting tight old-crop stocks rather than weak demand. In Beijing, shine skin AA non-organic kernels are around EUR 3.38/kg FOB, with organic AA at about EUR 3.48/kg. GWS AA sits near EUR 3.06/kg, while lower grades (A/A+) range from roughly EUR 2.26–2.32/kg FOB, all marginally below mid-August levels.

This small price correction appears more like technical consolidation ahead of the new crop than a trend reversal. With inventories expected to be nearly exhausted before September arrivals, any negative supply surprise or renewed export push could quickly push EUR prices back toward or above earlier August highs.

Supply & Demand

The central structural feature of the 2026 season is the collapse in China’s carryover stocks. Whereas normal domestic pumpkin seed ending stocks are around 200,000 t, current inventories are estimated near 60,000 t. Given combined roasting and export demand of roughly 15,000 t per month, stocks are likely to be effectively exhausted before new-crop volumes reach the market from September onward.

This means China, as the world’s largest pumpkin seed producer (around 41.3% of global output in 2025), will enter the new crop with virtually no buffer. Any harvest delay, quality issue or logistics disruption could therefore transmit very quickly into export prices and international availability, particularly for higher-value kernel segments.

On the demand side, exports remain the dominant engine. China accounted for about 62.3% of global pumpkin seed exports in 2025, with export value reaching approximately USD 2.36 billion. Key destinations include the UAE (~18.5% of Chinese exports), Germany (~14.2%) and the United States (~11.7%), with additional flows to Canada, Australia and more than 60 other countries, underlining the breadth of the demand base.

Fundamentals & Product Mix

Demand is undergoing a structural upgrade away from in-shell snacks toward higher value-added products. The share of in-shell roasted seeds has fallen to about 44.6% of the demand mix, while dehulled kernels, pumpkin seed oil and protein ingredients together have risen to 55.4%. Dehulled kernels are the core growth driver, with exports of hulled kernels in 2025 up roughly 15.8% year-on-year.

This shift is closely linked to expanding health-oriented consumption both in export markets and domestically. Pumpkin kernel-based ingredients increasingly feed into bakery, sports nutrition, plant-based protein and premium snacking segments, which tend to be less price-sensitive and more resilient. As a result, even mild price increases driven by supply tightness are unlikely to cause a sharp demand destruction in the short term.

Weather & New-Crop Outlook (China)

With the market poised to enter the new season on minimal stocks, short-term weather conditions in major Chinese pumpkin-growing regions are critical. The main risk for prices in the coming weeks is any combination of excessive rainfall, early frost or disease pressure that could compromise yields or delay harvesting and drying, thereby squeezing the already thin transition period.

Assuming broadly normal late-summer weather, new-crop arrivals from September should gradually rebuild pipeline inventories and ease immediate spot tightness, especially for standard grades. However, premium organic and top-spec kernel segments may remain more sensitive to local weather or quality issues, given stricter selection and lower absolute volumes.

Trading Outlook

• Export buyers (EU, MENA, North America): Consider covering at least part of Q4 2026 and early 2027 needs now, as current EUR prices still reflect a modest correction while the fundamental backdrop (zero carryover + strong exports) is bullish.
• Chinese processors/traders: Inventory management is key. With old-crop stocks nearly depleted, avoid excessive pre-sales of new crop before concrete yield and quality data are available, to reduce margin risk if prices spike.
• End-users focusing on dehulled kernels, oil and protein: Prioritise long-term supply relationships and specification flexibility (grade, origin within China) to secure volumes in case of weather or logistics disruptions at harvest.
• Short-term speculative positions: Downside appears limited while carryover is near zero; aggressive short-selling ahead of harvest looks risky unless clear evidence emerges of an above-trend crop and smooth logistics.

3-Day Price Direction (EUR, CN FOB)

• Beijing shine skin AA (organic & conventional): Sideways to slightly firm over the next 3 days, with traders cautious about offering deeper discounts so close to the crop transition.
• Beijing GWS AA and mid-grades: Mostly stable; small intraday moves possible but overall rangebound until clearer signals on new-crop volumes emerge.
• Dalian kernels (shine skin and GWS): Stable, with a mild upward bias if buyers move early to secure port-based spot cargoes ahead of harvest logistics peaks.