China’s Sunflower Exports Surge as CN FOB Prices Edge Higher

Chinese sunflower exports (seeds and kernels) are on a firm growth path, with both volumes and values rising in 2025 and CN FOB offers moving slightly higher in June. Strong, geographically concentrated demand in the Middle East, Central/West Asia and Southeast Asia, together with Inner Mongolia’s dominant production role, underpins a broadly bullish but still orderly market. Export data point to a steadily expanding trade, with 2025 exports reaching 568,800 tonnes (+18.6% y/y) and export value up 14.6% to about USD 932 million, reflecting a “volume and price up together” pattern. Seasonality remains pronounced: October–December are peak export months, while May–August are relatively quiet. Against this structure, current European and Black Sea offers show mild firmness in kernels and a mixed picture in seeds, while Chinese CN FOB prices have been ticking gradually higher since late May.

Prices & Short-Term Moves

Recent offers indicate moderate firmness in sunflower kernels and mixed movement in seeds. In China (Beijing, FOB), striped sunflower seeds are quoted around EUR 1.43/kg, up from roughly EUR 1.40/kg in early June. Hulled bakery kernels stand near EUR 1.25/kg, with confection kernels at about EUR 1.28–1.34/kg for conventional vs. organic, both slightly higher than late May levels.

Black Sea seed prices show a different dynamic. Ukrainian black seeds FCA Kyiv/Odesa are around EUR 0.62/kg, down from roughly EUR 0.69/kg earlier in the month, while Bulgarian black seeds FCA Sofia are holding near EUR 0.61/kg after a step up from about EUR 0.55/kg in mid-June. Moldovan black seeds FCA Germany trade around EUR 0.68/kg, slightly firmer than late May. Hulled kernels from Ukraine, Bulgaria and Moldova mostly range between EUR 1.02–1.13/kg for bakery quality, while confection kernels from Bulgaria are around EUR 1.30/kg.

Supply & Demand Structure

Chinese exporters report a clear expansion in sunflower seed and kernel exports, with both physical volumes and export revenue rising steadily. The market is highly concentrated geographically: the Middle East, Central Asia and West Asia together account for over 40% of exports. Iraq, Russia, Turkey, Iran and Pakistan form the top five destinations, acting as an anchor for Chinese shipments and giving exporters strong visibility on off-take.

On the supply side, Inner Mongolia and other core producing regions hold an absolute dominant role in export-oriented supply. This concentration increases efficiency and scale but also makes the export flow more sensitive to regional weather and logistics in those provinces. Seasonality is pronounced: export peaks typically in October–December, while May–August are off-season months with relatively subdued shipments, which currently limits downside in prices despite lower short-term export activity.

Fundamentals & Weather Outlook

The current fundamentals reflect tight but manageable balances. Solid demand from snack, bakery and oil sectors in core export markets continues to absorb increased Chinese output, supporting the observed “volume plus price growth” pattern in 2025. Internationally, competition from Black Sea origins remains intense on bulk seeds and oil, but Chinese kernels and higher value confection products retain a quality and reliability premium in key Middle Eastern and Asian markets.

Weather in main Chinese producing regions is seasonally supportive. Inner Mongolia is forecast over the next three days (20–22 June 2026) to see mostly cool to mild conditions, with highs rising from about 17°C to 24°C and nights around 9–10°C, under mostly cloudy to partly sunny skies and some wind. In Beijing, relevant for export logistics and trade flows, weather is expected to be sunny to mostly sunny, with highs near 30–32°C and lows around 15–16°C, providing favorable conditions for handling and transport.

Market & Trading Outlook

Given the strong structural export growth, concentrated demand base and relatively firm CN FOB indications, the short-term outlook for Chinese sunflower kernels and confection seeds remains mildly bullish into the summer. Seasonal patterns suggest that significant additional upside is more likely to materialise as the market approaches the traditional export peak from October onwards, especially if demand in the Middle East and Central Asia remains robust and Black Sea supply faces any disruptions.

• Exporters in China: Consider locking in part of forward sales for Q4 2026 at current CN FOB levels, especially for hulled kernels and confection grades where premiums are stable. Maintain some open volume to capture potential upside if demand strengthens into the peak season.
• Importers in Middle East/Central Asia: Use today’s relatively orderly market to secure coverage for late Q3–Q4, focusing on Chinese kernels for quality-sensitive applications. For purely price-driven needs, consider partial diversification with Ukrainian and Bulgarian seeds, which currently trade at a discount per kg compared with Chinese offers.
• Processors & roasters: Monitor spreads between seeds, kernels and crude sunflower oil. With crude sunflower oil from Ukraine around EUR 1.12/kg CPT Odesa, margin management via flexible input sourcing (seeds vs. oil) could provide hedging value if seed prices tighten later in the year.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• China, CN FOB Beijing (striped seeds, kernels): Stable to slightly firmer over the next 3 days, supported by strong export fundamentals and no weather or logistics disruptions expected.
• Black Sea, UA FCA/FOB seeds & kernels: Mostly stable, with a slight soft bias for bulk black seeds given recent easing from earlier June highs.
• EU (BG, MD FCA, DE delivery): Largely sideways; recent upticks appear to be consolidating, with limited immediate drivers for sharp moves before new crop visibility improves.