China Soybean Market: Record Imports Meet Heavy Stocks and Weather Risk
China’s soybean market faces record imports, high inventories and pressured spot prices, while US weather and Brazil’s export surge support forward costs.
Prices
Based on recent FOB offers converted to EUR (≈0.92 EUR/USD), Chinese origin yellow soybeans in Beijing are indicated around 0.85–0.91 EUR/kg for conventional and 0.92–0.98 EUR/kg for organic lots, with modest week-on-week softening in conventional grades and mixed moves in organics. Indian sortex-clean beans are comparatively expensive near 1.00–1.03 EUR/kg, while Ukrainian GMO-free beans remain the low-cost option at roughly 0.43–0.45 EUR/kg CPT Odesa.
Price action over the past three weeks shows mild pressure on Chinese domestic offers, consistent with reports of "price weakness under heavy supply". At the same time, the decline has been orderly rather than a sharp break, reflecting support from international cost curves and weather risk in the US Midwest, which keeps forward replacement values from collapsing.
Supply & Demand
China is in the midst of a pronounced import surge. June 2026 soybean imports reached about 13.5 million tonnes, the highest June on record, driven by aggressive Brazilian shipments and accelerated customs clearances. Market feedback points to July arrivals of roughly 11 million tonnes and August near 10.5 million tonnes, implying a Q3 monthly import range around 10–11 million tonnes and maintaining a structurally loose nearby balance.
Commercial inventories at major crushing plants are estimated near 7.5–7.8 million tonnes, at or close to historical highs for this time of year. Crushers are sustaining high run rates around 2.25–2.4 million tonnes per week, reflecting both strong bean availability and stable crush margins. On the global side, Brazil’s export program remains extremely strong, with July shipments now projected around 13.7 million tonnes, significantly above last year. China remains the primary destination, locking in ample near-term supply.
For the 2025/26 season (Oct 2025–Sep 2026), China’s soybean imports are expected in the 112–115 million tonne range, underpinned by a very large South American crop (Brazil estimated above 180 million tonnes) and steady domestic crush demand. While Chinese official projections for the 2026/27 marketing year currently show import expectations around the mid-90 million tonne level, market participants see upside risk if feed demand and hog margins improve more than anticipated.
Fundamentals & Weather
The overarching fundamental theme is "supply peak plus record inventories", clearly tilting the short-term balance to surplus. This keeps nearby physical markets and basis levels in China under pressure, even as crushers continue to absorb large volumes. The availability of competitively priced Brazilian beans strengthens buyers’ bargaining power in spot tenders and discourages panic buying.
However, two offsetting factors are preventing a deeper price break. First, global demand for Brazilian soybeans remains robust and export lineups continue to expand, supporting international flat prices. Second, attention is shifting toward the critical US soybean pod-setting stage in August. Crop progress reports show good overall conditions so far, but uneven rainfall patterns across parts of the Midwest and Northern Plains are enough to fuel weather-driven volatility in US futures and, by extension, Chinese import costs for Q4 2026 and early 2027.
On the demand side, there is still uncertainty around China’s livestock and feed consumption recovery. While crush volumes are high now, some traders question the sustainability of current operating rates if hog and poultry margins soften later in the year. Nevertheless, given the scale of imports already locked in and the comfortable stock cushion, the domestic pipeline appears well supplied into Q4, barring a major weather shock or logistics disruption in Brazil.
Weather Outlook (Key Production Regions)
United States: Over the next 7–10 days, forecasts indicate seasonally warm temperatures across much of the US Corn Belt, with scattered showers but some risk of short-lived dryness in parts of the western and northern belt during the early pod-setting window. This pattern is not yet threatening, but any shift toward hotter and drier conditions in early August would quickly be priced into US futures and Chinese forward import costs.
Brazil: As the main crop is largely harvested, near-term weather is less critical for output but important for logistics. Current forecasts show mostly favorable conditions for port operations, with no major, sustained disruptions expected in the short term. This supports the strong export pace to China and helps keep global physical supplies ample during the northern hemisphere summer.
Trading Outlook & 3-Day View
Strategic takeaways for market participants:
- Feed and crushing buyers in China: With arrivals peaking and stocks at historical highs, prioritize hand-to-mouth coverage in the nearby months and use any weather-driven futures rallies to extend Q4 2026–Q1 2027 coverage selectively.
- Exporters and sellers to China: Expect continued price resistance on spot cargoes; differentiate via quality, shipment flexibility and freight terms. Consider hedging a portion of forward sales against US weather-related spikes.
- Speculative participants: The fundamental bias is mildly bearish for nearby contracts but with elevated event risk from August US weather. Strategies that sell nearby strength while owning limited upside (options) into the US pod-setting period may be appropriate.
3-day regional price indication / direction (in EUR, directional):
- China (domestic, Beijing FOB): Conventional yellow soybeans seen stable to slightly softer around 0.85–0.87 EUR/kg; organic premiums stable.
- Brazil (FOB export parity to China): Prices expected to hold firm, underpinned by strong July export lineups and active Chinese buying.
- US (Gulf export parity to China): Sideways with weather-driven intraday volatility; direction closely tied to updated US Midwest rainfall forecasts.