China Soybeans: Stable FOB, Firmer Futures as Demand Signals Improve

Chinese soybean prices are holding broadly steady on FOB terms, with organic Beijing offers edging slightly higher while conventional quotes flatten, as Dalian futures firm on improving crush margins and better demand signals from feed and export markets. The near-term picture is one of relative balance: international markets remain well supplied, but recent data point to firmer export sales to China and growing U.S. soybean acreage in 2026, underpinning liquidity and capping downside. Domestic non-GMO cash prices and Dalian No.1 soybean futures have ticked up into early April, helped by active soybean meal trading and expectations of robust import needs in 2026/27. Weather in Northeast China is seasonally cool but not threatening, keeping planting intentions intact. Overall, the CN soybean complex looks range-bound in EUR terms, with mildly bullish bias if futures strength persists and logistics remain smooth.

Prices & Spreads

FOB Beijing soybean prices are stable to slightly firmer in early April. Converted into EUR (using ~0.92 EUR/USD equivalent for reference), current indicative CN FOB levels translate as follows:

On the futures side, Dalian No.1 soybean (May 2026) settled at 4,641 CNY/t on March 31, up 74 CNY on the day, signalling a firmer tone in the domestic paper market and helping to stabilise physical basis levels.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Global supply remains comfortable. The latest USDA Prospective Plantings report shows U.S. farmers intend to plant 84.7 million acres of soybeans in 2026, up 4% year-on-year, while March 1 soybean stocks are up 10% from a year earlier, highlighting ample U.S. availability for export over the coming marketing year.

On the demand side, recent weekly U.S. export sales data (week to March 19) reveal soybean bookings of around 24.6 million bushels, a sharp increase from prior weeks, led by buying interest from China alongside Germany and Mexico, confirming that China continues to underpin global trade flows. Meanwhile, USDA’s March grain circular and its China attache outlook still project robust Chinese soybean import demand above 100 million tonnes in the 2025/26–2026/27 window, keeping forward import needs structurally strong even as near-term stocks are adequate.

Fundamentals & Weather (China Focus)

Domestically, Chinese non-GMO cash soybean prices showed modest strength at the end of March according to Mysteel’s March 30 flash survey, aligning with the uptick in Dalian No.1 soybean and soybean meal futures. Stronger meal prices on the Dalian Commodity Exchange reflect improving demand from the feed sector and support crush margins, which in turn helps maintain steady bids for physical beans despite globally abundant supply.

Weather-wise, Northeast China (including key soybean provinces like Jilin and Heilongjiang) is entering early spring with seasonally cool temperatures but no major anomalies reported over the past few days. Short-range forecasting and recent climate work for Jilin suggest typical mid-temperate continental conditions, with temperatures gradually improving into April and no acute stress signals for spring fieldwork or planting preparation. This benign weather backdrop, combined with stable policy and import expectations, reduces immediate production risk and favours a continuation of current price ranges in EUR terms.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Takeaways

Given stable FOB offers, firmer Dalian futures and solid import projections, the short-term risk balance for CN-linked soybean prices is slightly skewed to the upside, but constrained by large U.S. stocks and rising planted area. The market is more responsive to changes in crush margins and feed demand than to outright supply fears at this stage.

• Importers in China: Consider layering in near-term coverage while Dalian futures remain supportive but global benchmarks are still anchored by ample U.S. supply; focus on basis risk management versus Dalian No.1 contracts.
• Exporters (US, IN, UA): Maintain competitive EUR offers into CN, as stronger Chinese meal and futures prices offer room for modest basis improvements; watch USDA export sales and DCE price action for signals of incremental Chinese buying.
• Hedgers & Speculators: With U.S. acreage rising and Chinese demand resilient, a cautiously bullish stance via spreads (long Dalian vs short CBOT) may be attractive, but be prepared for volatility around upcoming USDA reports and any shifts in China’s import pacing.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (EUR)

Directional view for the next three trading days (through April 5, 2026), assuming stable FX and freight:

• CN Beijing FOB soybeans: Sideways to +1% in EUR/kg, supported by firm Dalian futures and steady non-GMO cash values.
• Dalian-linked domestic soybeans: Mildly firmer bias as futures remain underpinned by strong soybean meal demand and active trading volumes.
• Import parity into CN (US/Brazil reference): Broadly stable in EUR, with large U.S. stocks and higher 2026 acreage capping upside despite healthy Chinese buying interest.