China’s Soybean Imports Soar: Market Rebounds Amid Logistical Recovery & Price Divergence

The global Soya market in June 2025 is experiencing a dramatic shift, primarily fueled by a record-breaking surge in Chinese imports, supply-side adjustments worldwide, and active trading at major exchanges. After a precipitous fall in Chinese imports in April, caused by weather-related delays in Brazil and prolonged customs clearance, May saw an unprecedented rebound with 13.92 million tonnes imported, marking a historic monthly peak and a 36.2% year-on-year growth. Improved logistics—customs clearance times down to about two weeks, along with a revitalised crushing sector (utilisation rates exceeded 50%), have unleashed pent-up demand and compelled market participants to recalibrate their expectations.

Despite easing logistical bottlenecks and robust short-term demand, price signals remain mixed. While organic yellow soybeans in Beijing have slipped slightly, conventional beans saw a modest uptick, mirroring renewed buying urgency. Yet international FOB prices (notably, the U.S. Midwest and Ukraine) remain subdued, reflecting competitive global supply and moderate external demand. Looking ahead, weather across the U.S. Midwest and Brazil’s southern region—both critical for the next harvest—will add volatility, as current forecasts show variable precipitation and localised heatwaves. Navigating this market will require vigilance as speculative positioning, USDA data releases, and shifting Chinese policies continue to sway sentiment.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Location	Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
China	Yellow, Organic	Beijing	0.75	-0.02	Stable to soft
China	Yellow	Beijing	0.70	+0.01	Bullish (Import demand)
USA	No. 2	Washington D.C.	0.33	0.00	Stable
India	Sortex Clean	New Delhi	0.71	0.00	Stable
Ukraine	N/A	Odesa	0.36	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand

• China: Record May imports (13.92 Mt, +36.2% y/y), following April’s decade-low (6.08 Mt). Pent-up demand post-logistics recovery fuels bullish sentiment but could ease as inventories rebuild.
• Brazil: Harvest delays now resolved; export flows rebound as southern regions face short-term weather risks.
• USA: Moderate export pace; new crop planting near completion, but Midwest weather is a key swing factor.
• Rest of World: Ukraine & India maintain steady exports; currency and freight trends are supportive.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: World stocks projected flat; U.S. end-stocks slightly above previous estimates.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains cautiously net long; volatility picks up ahead of the July USDA Acreage report.
• Chinese Crush Margins: Improved; crushers regain profitability as import flows resume.
• Global Inventories: Slight build in China; Brazil drawdown slows post-peak export period.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• U.S. Midwest: Next 3 days forecast: scattered showers, localised heat; some fields may see heat stress, but overall moisture remains adequate.
• Brazil (South): Drier than average; some crop risk ahead of new planting.
• China (Northeast Manchuria): Seasonable temperatures, moderate rains; no acute stress seen in the short term.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Prod. (Mt)	2023/24 Stocks (Mt)	Direction
China (imports)	18.0 (est.)	31.5	↑ (surge)
Brazil	156.5	31.0	↓ (post-export)
USA	117.5	9.0	→
Argentina	48.0	5.5	→
India	13.0	1.2	→
Ukraine	5.1	0.7	→

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor Chinese port arrivals and crush volume; potential for softness if inventories build faster than demand.
• Watch U.S. Midwest weather; heatwave persistence may spark risk premium.
• Short-term: Favour opportunistic buying on dips for crushers/end users, hedge new season forward exposure.
• Speculators: Play volatility with options; add to longs only on a confirmed weather rally or further Chinese import strength.
• Global exporters: Time sales, especially to China, as logistical normalcy returns; remain alert to shifting policy cues on GMO, tariffs.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Spot Price (USD/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Sentiment
Beijing (Organic)	0.75	0.74 – 0.76	Stable to soft
Beijing (Conventional)	0.70	0.70 – 0.72	Stable/Bullish
CBOT (Nearby)	0.33	0.33 – 0.34	Neutral
Odesa	0.36	0.36	Steady