Chinese Bean FOB Prices Edge Mixed as Weather Stays Mostly Favourable

Chinese bean FOB prices are moving in a narrow band, with modest gains in mung and dark red kidney beans but softer large white kidney and conventional adzuki. Weather in Northeast China is seasonally warm with scattered showers, supporting crop development and keeping supply expectations broadly comfortable for now. Near‑term price risks look balanced, with export demand and FX swings likely to matter more than weather in the coming week. China’s bean market is entering late-July with stable fundamentals and limited weather stress in the main producing provinces of Heilongjiang and Jilin, where conditions remain seasonally warm and generally suitable for summer pulses. Recent analysis of the Chinese adzuki complex highlights lower acreage and firmer premiums, but physical FOB offers in Beijing are only slightly higher or flat versus early July, indicating that exporters still see adequate spot availability. For buyers, this translates into a window to secure forward coverage before any stronger weather or demand‑driven move later in Q3.

Prices

All prices converted from USD FOB to EUR FOB using an indicative rate of 1 USD = 0.92 EUR.

• Mung beans: both conventional and organic CN FOB Beijing are about 1–2% above early-July levels, broadly in line with modest strength in China’s domestic mung prices for July.
• Kidney beans: large white grades have corrected by roughly 3–4% over the past fortnight, while dark red and black types are flat to slightly firmer.
• Adzuki: FOB prices are broadly steady to fractionally lower despite reports of tighter forward balance and stronger premiums in the high-grade segment.

Supply & Demand

• China production: Northeast China (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and eastern Inner Mongolia) remains the core pulse and soybean belt. High soybean subsidies continue to incentivise oilseed area, but total pulse area for adzuki is reported down by close to 30%, tightening the 2026/27 balance, especially for premium grades.
• Weather window: Official short-term forecasts for Heilongjiang and neighbouring provinces show seasonally warm temperatures and scattered showers through 21 July, without persistent heat or flooding in major bean districts. This supports yield potential and limits immediate supply concerns.
• Import demand drivers: India remains structurally short in pulses and is pushing a long-term mission to raise production while keeping imports of key pulses such as tur and urad under a free regime to 2027, supporting regional trade flows. While this focuses more on pigeon peas and urad, it underpins a firm regional demand floor for pulses, indirectly supporting Chinese bean pricing.
• Trade positioning: Recent analysis points to comfortable Chinese spot inventories for mung and kidney beans, explaining why FOB offers show only mild moves despite talk of tighter forward adzuki supplies.

Weather outlook (China, key bean belt)

• Northeast (Heilongjiang, Jilin): Forecasts for 18–21 July call for warm summer conditions with intermittent showers and local thunderstorms, typical for mid‑July. No major cold fronts or heatwaves are indicated in the next three days, and rainfall is near seasonal norms.
• Market impact: With planting completed and vegetative growth underway, such conditions are generally supportive for yield. Weather is therefore a neutral to slightly bearish factor for CN bean prices in the very short term, as it does not justify a significant risk premium.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Adzuki acreage down, but prices still measured: Market commentary notes ~28% lower adzuki acreage and stronger export premiums, yet the current CN FOB Beijing adzuki prices in EUR remain close to early‑July levels, suggesting that the tightening is more a forward story than a spot shortage.
• Pulses in global diet and trade: India’s push for self‑reliance in pulses and sustained high import needs, alongside China’s role as a leading pulse importer, keep the global pulses complex structurally supported even when individual crops such as Chinese mung appear comfortably supplied.
• Macro backdrop: Broader agricultural markets, including corn and soy in China, are relatively stable week‑on‑week, which helps cap volatility in minor pulses such as mung and adzuki for now.

3‑day price outlook (CN FOB, directional)

• Mung beans (conventional & organic, CN FOB Beijing, EUR): Sideways to slightly firm over the next three days. Weather is benign and there is no new demand shock, but modest underlying import interest in Asia and stable domestic prices suggest a mild upward bias of <1%.
• Kidney beans (dark red, black, CN FOB Beijing, EUR): Largely sideways. After recent small gains, buyers and sellers appear balanced; spot offers are likely to stay within the current range, with day‑to‑day moves of at most ±0.5%.
• Kidney beans (large white, CN FOB Beijing, EUR): Slightly firmer after recent correction. Some bargain‑buying could stabilise prices, limiting further downside; a small technical rebound of up to 1% is possible if export enquiries improve.
• Adzuki beans (red, CN FOB Beijing, EUR): Neutral to slightly firm. Forward tightness and lower acreage argue against further declines, but near‑term prices should stay close to current levels unless new demand emerges.

Overall, for 18–21 July the Chinese bean complex is expected to trade in a tight range in EUR terms, with no strong directional trigger from either weather or policy headlines in the very near term.