Chinese Bean FOB Prices Mixed as Weather Stays Seasonally Warm and Dry

Chinese bean FOB prices are trading mixed this week, with modest firmness in conventional kidney and black beans and slightly softer organic white types. Adzuki and mung beans remain broadly stable, supported by steady export interest and limited nearby supply pressure. With Beijing weather warm, occasionally humid but not threatening for stored stocks, the short‑term market focus stays on export demand and regional pulse fundamentals rather than immediate crop risk. Across the bean complex in China, current moves are incremental rather than structural. Export reference values for Chinese kidney beans are broadly aligned with recent international benchmarks around USD 1.56/kg, pointing to a relatively competitive position in global trade. Regionally, pulses face mixed signals: India’s 2026 monsoon is starting unevenly, raising medium‑term questions for Asian pulse balances, while Brazil’s wider grain sector is battling soft prices, hinting at limited spillover support from competing crops. For the next few days, benign Beijing weather and the absence of fresh crop shocks suggest a sideways to mildly firm tone in Chinese FOB bean offers.

Prices & Short-Term Moves

All prices below are FOB, converted to EUR/t at an indicative 1 EUR = 1.08 USD for comparability. They represent Beijing offers as of 18 June 2026.

• Conventional kidney and black beans show a mild bullish bias, tracking the small month‑on‑month firming in China’s average kidney bean export price (about +0.6% YoY).
• Organic large white kidney beans eased slightly, likely reflecting softer niche demand and competition from other origins.
• Adzuki and mung beans are broadly stable, with tiny ticks rather than trend moves, suggesting balanced nearby supply and demand.

Supply & Demand Context

On the supply side, China remains a key exporter, accounting for around 6% of global kidney bean exports with 2024 export volumes of roughly 84.8 kt and an average export value near USD 1.56/kg. Current domestic grain policy prioritises high overall grain output, and 2025 grain production hit a new record despite adverse weather, underscoring resilience in China’s cropping system, including pulses.

In the wider pulses complex, India’s 2026 kharif sowing is currently about 3.9% behind last year, with forecasters highlighting that a below‑normal monsoon would particularly pressure pulse yields. That increases the strategic value of Chinese beans in Asian trade flows if Indian production lags, even though this is a medium‑term factor rather than a driver for this week’s prices.

Competing crops offer limited price support for now. In Brazil, producer prices for major grains like corn are in a downward trend, reflecting comfortable global supplies and subdued international prices. This environment caps upside for pulses via substitution or acreage shifts in South America, keeping global bean markets fundamentally well supplied.

Weather Watch – China (Key Bean Regions)

For Beijing, representing North China logistics and part of the bean marketing belt, the next three days (19–21 June 2026) are forecast to be mostly warm with periods of clouds, a few showers and then sunnier, less humid conditions, highs around 26–30°C and lows near 15–21°C. These are non‑threatening conditions for stored pulses and do not imply immediate quality deterioration risks.

Spring sowing in broader northern areas such as Inner Mongolia finished by early to mid‑June, with authorities targeting stable or slightly higher grain areas versus last year. No fresh weather shocks have been reported in the last few days for these regions, so forward supply expectations for Chinese beans remain broadly intact in the very short term.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Export competitiveness: Chinese kidney bean export unit values around USD 1.56/kg (~1,444 EUR/t) sit close to current FOB benchmarks and align with the domestic FOB offers listed above, indicating broadly competitive pricing in global trade.
• Macro‑grain backdrop: Weakness in other agricultural markets (e.g., Brazilian corn) limits cross‑commodity support; pulses trade more on their own balance than on a broad agri rally.
• Regional pulse risk: The most acute emerging risk is in India, where a weaker monsoon scenario would disproportionately hit pulses, potentially lifting regional import demand later in 2026 if realised.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Buyers (food and feed): Use current flat‑to‑slightly‑firm levels in conventional kidney and black beans to lock in part of Q3–Q4 coverage, particularly for dark red and black types that have shown modest recent strength. Keep some flexibility in case India’s monsoon issues materialise and regional demand tightens.
• Traders/exporters in China: For organic large white kidney beans, recent softening argues for cautious selling; avoid deep discounts and focus on high‑value markets where organic premiums remain robust. In conventional mung and adzuki, maintain offer discipline, as balanced fundamentals do not justify aggressive price cuts.
• Risk management: Monitor Indian pulse sowing updates and Asian demand indicators closely. A clear confirmation of below‑normal monsoon impacts on pulses could justify modestly higher forward offers from Chinese origin later in the season.

3‑Day Price Indication – Chinese Beans (FOB, Direction)

• Beijing – kidney beans (all types, FOB, EUR/t): Prices expected to trade in a narrow range around current levels with a slight upward bias for conventional dark red and black types, given recent week‑on‑week firming and steady export interest.
• Beijing – adzuki & mung beans (FOB, EUR/t): Sideways to marginally firmer tone; no immediate weather or policy catalysts, but regional pulse uncertainty (India monsoon) argues against downside in the very short term.
• Volatility: Low for the coming 3 days, with larger moves more likely to come from external news flow on South Asian pulses or any sudden change in Chinese export policy than from domestic weather.