Chinese Dried Apple Cubes Edge Higher as Logistics Costs Stabilise

Chinese dried apple cubes FCA Dordrecht firmed slightly this week, with quotes up EUR 0.05/kg across sizes, supported by steady EU snack and cereal demand and only modest relief on China–Europe freight costs. After several weeks of flat pricing, the CN-origin dried apple market into the Netherlands is showing a gentle upward bias. Buyers report stable nearby availability but little appetite from Chinese processors to discount ahead of the new fresh-crop marketing season. Ocean freight from Asia to North Europe has eased from July peaks, yet spot rates remain historically elevated, keeping a floor under delivered prices into the EU. With no major weather shocks in China over the past few days and global fresh apple supplies already projected tighter for 2025/26, sellers are cautiously lifting offers while monitoring demand elasticity in European food manufacturing.

Prices

FCA Dordrecht, CN-origin non-organic dried apple cubes moved slightly higher on 13 August 2026 compared with the prior week, with all main sizes gaining around EUR 0.05/kg.

The market structure remains narrow, with only EUR 0.10/kg between the smallest and largest cube sizes, highlighting balanced demand across applications. Recent gains largely reflect cost pass-through rather than a sudden tightening in raw material supply.

Supply & Demand

Global fresh apple production for 2025/26 is forecast to fall about 5% year-on-year to roughly 81.7 million tonnes, with China’s crop projected down to around 47 million tonnes on reduced acreage and earlier adverse weather in key producing provinces. This structurally tighter raw material backdrop supports firm pricing for processed products such as dried apple.

On the export side, China’s fresh apple shipments are expected to edge lower in 2025/26, while global exports slip to about 6.1 million tonnes, limiting surplus availability for processing. For dried fruit, no major supply disruptions have been reported in the last 72 hours, and Chinese processors appear adequately covered on raw fruit, but are cautious about committing large forward volumes at discounts given the weaker production outlook.

European demand for CN-origin dried apple remains steady, driven by bakery, muesli and snack sectors. Buyers are, however, increasingly price-sensitive after months of elevated logistics and energy costs, which may cap the pace of further price increases unless there is a new supply shock.

Weather Outlook – China Apple Belt (Next 3 Days)

Short-term weather across China’s main apple-producing regions (Shaanxi, Shandong, Henan and surrounding areas) is seasonally warm with scattered showers and no major extremes flagged over the coming three days. Recent typhoon activity has mainly affected southern coastal areas and ports rather than the northern inland apple belt.

With orchards in mid- to late-summer development, the current forecast implies neutral-to-slightly supportive conditions for fruit sizing and quality. In the absence of new frost, hail or prolonged flooding events, weather is unlikely to be a near-term bullish driver for dried apple prices.

Logistics & Trade Flows

Container freight from Asia to North Europe has eased somewhat from July highs. Recent indications from forwarders suggest Asia–North Europe spot rates have slipped around 8% week-on-week, though they remain significantly above long-term averages.

Air freight China–Europe has also seen a notable correction, with wholesale rates reportedly down about 22% in July to around USD 4.15/kg, reflecting softer e-commerce volumes following EU rules on low-value imports. While dried apple moves predominantly by sea, lower air rates marginally improve flexibility for urgent consignments and help cap total logistics costs.

Overall, logistics is shifting from an acute cost shock to a still-expensive but more manageable environment. This is consistent with the modest, not explosive, increase seen in FCA Dordrecht dried apple offers.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Raw material tension: Lower global and Chinese fresh apple output in 2025/26 underpins processed apple values, encouraging Chinese suppliers to defend margins rather than chase volume.
• Demand steady, not booming: European industrial users are maintaining routine procurement, but are reluctant to overstock amid broader economic uncertainty and high working-capital costs.
• Logistics plateauing: After sharp increases earlier in the year, Asia–Europe freight rates show signs of topping out, with recent small declines allowing only limited relief to EU buyers.

Trading Outlook

• EU buyers (short cover): Consider securing September–October needs at current levels around EUR 4.45–4.55/kg FCA Dordrecht; downside from here looks limited as long as Chinese crop expectations remain reduced.
• EU buyers (well covered): Stagger additional purchases, testing the market on dips if freight softens further, but avoid being fully uncovered for Q4 given the tighter global fresh apple balance.
• Chinese suppliers/exporters: Current modest price increases are justified. Focus on maintaining reliable lead times and freight options to preserve share in the EU rather than pushing aggressive further hikes in the near term.

3-Day Price Direction (EUR, FCA Dordrecht)

• Dried apple cubes 5–7 mm (CN): EUR 4.55/kg – bias: slightly firmer to steady.
• Dried apple cubes 8–10 mm (CN): EUR 4.45/kg – bias: steady.
• Dried apple cubes 10–12 mm (CN): EUR 4.50/kg – bias: steady to slightly firmer on any fresh freight uptick.

Absent a new weather or freight shock, the market is likely to trade in a narrow range over the next three days, with a mild upward tilt reflecting firm fundamentals.