Chinese Lentil FOB Offers Ease as Global Supply Builds

Chinese FOB lentil offers are edging lower in late August, tracking softer global lentil sentiment and ample export availability from Canada. Price pressure is modest but persistent, with both organic and conventional small green lentils in China slipping about 2–3% since mid-August. Lentil markets globally are cushioned by strong Canadian supplies and rising producer deliveries, while demand in key importing hubs remains price sensitive. In pulses, the contrast with firm pigeon pea markets in India is reinforcing a two-speed pulse complex: tightness in some crops but comfortable availability in lentils. For Chinese buyers and traders, this translates into slightly more competitive import and export values, with little sign of near-term upside.

Prices

(Prices converted from USD/CAD offers to EUR using approximate late‑August FX; direction and magnitude are indicative.)

Supply & Demand Drivers

• Canadian lentil deliveries to licensed elevators at the start of MY 2026/27 are up 85% year-on-year, signaling aggressive farmer selling and ample available supply even as weekly exports dipped sharply in the latest reporting week.
• Record or near-record Canadian lentil supplies and moderate export demand are keeping global lentil offers soft to steady, particularly for green lentils, which directly compete with Chinese-origin small greens in Asian markets.
• In India, a major lentil importer, pulses markets show firmness mainly in tur (pigeon pea), while lentils are comparatively better supplied; this caps upside for international lentil values and encourages buyers to wait for dips.
• Retail and wholesale lentil prices in several importing regions continue to reflect earlier declines in global benchmarks, suggesting that downstream demand is responsive but not yet strong enough to absorb the heavier new-crop flows from exporters like Canada and Australia.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, lentil supply remains comfortable into late August. Canada, the largest exporter, projects exports around 2.3 million tonnes for 2025/26 with average prices well below last season, highlighting a more relaxed global balance. This backdrop is consistent with the softening trend in FOB offers from major origins.

For China, domestic lentil production is modest compared with leading exporters, so import availability and pricing from Canada and Australia are key. Global pulse reports point to adequate lentil availability and only localized tightness, in sharp contrast to the firmer tone in some other pulses such as tur.

In Beijing and northern China over the next three days, conditions are seasonally warm to hot with mixed cloud, a brief spell of light rain, and highs mostly in the mid‑20s to low‑30s °C. This pattern is broadly neutral for logistics and storage: no major heat spike or heavy rainfall is expected that would significantly disrupt truck or container movements from interior hubs to ports.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price trend (China FOB, small green): Mildly bearish to sideways over the next 3–5 trading days, with further small discounts possible if Canadian export selling picks up after the recent pause.
• Importers in Asia/MENA: Consider scaling in purchases for Q4 shipment on price dips, prioritizing green lentils where Canadian and Chinese FOB values are under pressure but logistics and quality are reliable.
• Chinese exporters: Competitive pricing versus Canada on small greens can open niche demand in South and Southeast Asia; focus on quick execution and quality differentiation (especially organic lots) rather than volume-driven strategies.
• Hedging/risk management: With comfortable global stocks and soft fundamentals, upside risk appears limited short term; prioritize basis and FX management over aggressive outright long positions in lentils.

3-Day Price Indication (Directional)

• China – Beijing FOB small green (conv./organic, EUR/kg): Slight downside bias of up to 0.01–0.02 EUR/kg; bids likely to remain below mid‑August levels as buyers test the market.
• Canada – FOB prairie equivalent for green/red lentils (EUR/kg): Mostly steady to marginally weaker, reflecting strong farm deliveries and cautious export demand.
• India – key lentil mandis (EUR/kg equivalent): Largely range-bound near current levels as comfortable imported supply offsets firm sentiment in other pulses.