Chinese Lentil FOB Prices Ease as Global Supply Stays Comfortable

Chinese FOB lentil prices in Beijing slipped about 5–6% over the past week, diverging from broadly steady to soft international values amid ample Canadian supply and comfortable stocks in key importing regions. The lentil market is currently driven by weak nearby buying interest and a supply backdrop that remains more than adequate. In Canada, early harvest results point to normal yields layered on top of large carryover stocks, keeping bids for red and green lentils capped despite some localized yield variability. India’s pulse imports remain strong, but lentil-specific flows are well supplied, while weather across China’s northern pulse belt looks seasonally warm and mostly dry to only lightly showery over the next few days, limiting immediate yield risk. Together, these factors suggest Chinese lentil prices may see only modest further downside, with buyers retaining the upper hand in the short term.

Prices

All prices converted approximately to EUR using 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR, 1 CAD ≈ 0.68 EUR, 1 CNY ≈ 0.13 EUR.

Canadian spot ranges are inferred from bids around 0.22–0.24 USD/lb for old-crop reds and large greens, and about 0.17–0.19 USD/lb for small greens. Indian Masoor quotes around INR 5,660–6,330/quintal imply roughly 710–760 EUR/t at current FX.

Supply & Demand

In Canada, the world’s key lentil exporter, harvest has just begun in Saskatchewan and Alberta with early indications of near-normal yields and no major weather or disease shocks. Combined with already large carryover stocks, this points to comfortable availability into 2026–27 and keeps export prices under pressure.

Indian pulse imports totaled about 3.18 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, only slightly below last year, with Masoor (lentils) imports up more than 50% year-on-year, led by Canada and Australia. This confirms that downstream demand is solid but also well served by multiple origins, limiting any urgent pull on Chinese-origin lentils. Domestic Chinese wholesale food price data highlight broad food price stability, with no evidence of a lentil-specific squeeze.

Weather & Crop Conditions (China)

Key Chinese lentil-growing areas in the north and northwest, such as Inner Mongolia, currently face seasonally warm conditions around 30–33 °C, with mostly sunny skies and only light, scattered showers forecast over the coming days. Soil moisture profiles remain adequate after earlier summer rains, and there are no near-term signals of heat stress or excessive rainfall that would materially alter yield prospects.

Given that the bulk of the lentil crop is either filling or nearing maturity, the forecast suggests a neutral-to-slightly-supportive production outlook in China: weather is not tight enough to trigger a supply scare, but also not adverse enough to reduce harvested volume. Overall, weather is a background factor rather than a primary price driver in the current week.

Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Chinese FOB prices correcting from recent highs: Both organic and conventional small green lentils in Beijing have fallen about 5–6% over the past week, extending a gentle downtrend seen since late July. This aligns with the global picture of ample supply and subdued buying.
• Canadian carryover capping rallies: Record or near-record carryover stocks in Canada, alongside early signs of normal new-crop yields, are preventing any meaningful price recovery in North American bids, with old-crop reds and large greens stuck in the low-20s cents per pound.
• Diversified demand base: India’s strong but diversified lentil import program, plus good prospects in Australia thanks to timely rainfall, further reinforces the impression of a well-supplied global market where buyers can switch origins if needed.

Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Buyers (China / Importers): Consider scaling into coverage for Q4–Q1 needs on further dips of 1–3% below current Beijing FOB levels, as downside from here looks modest unless Canada’s harvest materially overshoots expectations or India sharply slows imports.
• Sellers (Chinese origin): With local FOB values now at a discount to recent weeks and global benchmarks soft, avoid aggressive forward selling unless you can lock in premiums for organic or higher specs; focus instead on managing quality and logistics.
• Global traders: Maintain a slightly bearish-to-neutral bias, favoring origin spreads (Canada vs. Australia vs. China) rather than outright directional bets, and watch Indian tariff or import-policy signals closely for any demand shock.

3-Day Price Direction Snapshot (EUR, Directional)

Given stable weather in China’s lentil belt and ongoing harvest plus carryover in Canada, spot lentil prices over the next three days are expected to move in a narrow band, with only marginal further downside risk for Chinese FOB values.