Chinese Lentil FOB Prices Edge Higher While Global Supply Stays Comfortable

Chinese FOB prices for small green lentils in Beijing ticked slightly higher this week, but the broader global lentil complex still looks comfortably supplied, limiting any sharp upside. Chinese organic and conventional small green lentils (FOB Beijing) have inched up over the past two weeks, supported by steady domestic demand and firm container and logistics costs. By contrast, international indicators point to ample supply: Canadian export price benchmarks for small red lentils remain under pressure as buyers resist higher offers, and Australian production is projected at record levels, with unsold 2025 crop still weighing on sentiment.

Prices & Spreads

Using an indicative rate of 1 USD = 0.92 EUR for conversion.

Canadian small red lentils No.2 are quoted around CAD 1,25–1,30/bu equivalent (≈ 0.85 EUR/kg), with recent commentary emphasizing that buyers are "unwilling to push up lentil prices with ample supply."

Supply & Demand Drivers

On the supply side, Western Canada continues to move very large grain volumes, indicating good export logistics for pulses as well. Rail operator CN reported a record 2.96 million tonnes of grain moved from Western Canada in May, underscoring the ability to ship lentils efficiently once export demand appears. In parallel, Australian lentil output is forecast at a record 2.2 million tonnes, and local commentary notes that a significant share of last year’s crop remains unsold, contributing to sliding export prices.

On the demand side, India’s wholesale lentil prices around mid-June are near the government MSP, suggesting that domestic supply and imports are adequate for now, which tempers aggressive import demand. Broader macro indicators from China show manufacturing new orders below 50 in May, signaling softer industrial demand, though food demand for pulses is far less cyclical than feed or industrial crops. This mix keeps global lentil trade flows active but not tight enough to justify strong price rallies in the short term.

Fundamentals & Weather

Weather in Western Canada, the core green and red lentil production region, has recently trended cool with a northwesterly flow and scattered showers. Forecasts for the Prairies into late June point to a gradual shift back toward more typical summer temperatures, with adequate moisture in many areas – a generally neutral-to-bearish setup for yield risk at this stage. In India, monsoon progress is being closely watched, but as of mid-June, lentil price levels and the MSP cushion suggest no acute supply stress yet.

In China, near-term weather in key trading and consumption hubs such as Beijing is warm and seasonally humid over the coming three days, with highs around 30–33°C and scattered showers or thunderstorms possible each day. This pattern is normal for June and should not directly disrupt lentil flows, though heavy local showers can intermittently affect truck and port logistics. Overall, production risk is currently concentrated in Northern Hemisphere field regions outside China rather than in China itself.

Trading Outlook

• Chinese buyers: With FOB Beijing lentil prices drifting slightly higher but still well anchored by soft global benchmarks, short-term procurement can remain hand-to-mouth. Consider using Canadian red lentils as a price reference when negotiating offers.
• Exporters into China: Record Australian supply and steady Canadian availability argue against aggressive price hikes. Competitive offers in EUR terms, especially on containerized shipments, will be key to winning Chinese demand in the next month.
• Hedgers & traders: Until there is a clear weather scare in Canada or a demand shock from major importers such as India, rallies in international lentil values are opportunities to sell into strength rather than chase higher levels.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (CN Focus)

• China – FOB Beijing small green lentils (organic & conventional): Stable to slightly firm in EUR terms over the next three days, supported by logistics costs and currency, but capped by weak global benchmarks.
• Import parity into China (Canadian/Australian origin): Sideways to marginally weaker as export origins face pressure from ample supply and record Australian production expectations.
• Domestic wholesale markets in China: Narrow trading range expected; no weather or policy trigger is visible in the next 72 hours that would justify a sharp move.