Chinese Lentil FOB Prices Hold Steady Amid Global Oversupply

Chinese lentil FOB prices are broadly stable to slightly softer, with modest downside risk capped by still-firm global green lentil premiums over reds and steady domestic demand in China.

Chinese small green lentils (FOB Beijing) are trading in a tight range, with conventional and organic quotes edging lower month‑on‑month as global lentil supplies remain ample and Canadian export availability stays high following a large 2025 harvest. Internationally, Canada and Australia continue to dominate red and green lentil trade, and recent Canadian data point to strong export volumes but heavy carryout, keeping a lid on any price rallies. Near‑term, benign spring weather in northern China and soft freight rates out of Chinese ports argue for largely sideways price action rather than a sharp move in either direction.

📈 Prices & Spreads

• CN small green lentils, conventional, FOB Beijing, are roughly EUR 1.08–1.10/kg, flat versus a week ago in EUR terms after a mild earlier softening.
• CN small green lentils, organic, FOB Beijing, stand near EUR 1.13–1.16/kg, maintaining a small but stable premium over conventional as domestic organic demand is niche but resilient.
• Canadian green lentils (Laird/Eston) for export trade imply FOB values around EUR 1.55–1.65/kg, while Canadian red lentils sit near EUR 2.30–2.40/kg, reflecting a still‑wide green/red premium despite global oversupply.
• The green/red spread remains historically elevated, supporting Chinese green lentil values but limiting upside as buyers can substitute imported reds where quality and end‑use allow.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

• Canada’s 2025 lentil crop is estimated above 3.0–3.4 million tonnes, up more than one‑third year‑on‑year, ensuring plentiful exportable surplus into 2026.
• Export data show Canadian lentil shipments in 2024/25 running 20–30% ahead of the previous year, even after a sharp month‑to‑month decline in early 2025, underscoring robust yet not deficit‑clearing demand.
• India’s lentil imports have cooled as domestic output improved and policy favoured other pulses; this shifts incremental demand toward markets such as Bangladesh, the Middle East and China, but not enough to absorb the larger global crop.
• China itself has emerged as a modest but growing green lentil origin, with estimated average production near 1.6 million tonnes of pulses, and is increasingly active both as importer and exporter within Asia.
• Freight markets from China remain relatively soft, with stable container availability across Asia; this supports competitive FOB offers out of Chinese ports and helps cap local price increases.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Global lentil markets are characterized by heavy carryover stocks, especially in Canada, leaving prices “flat to slightly lower” versus late 2025 and restraining any sustained rally in CN export values.
• India’s earlier duty‑free window for lentil imports and subsequent return to a 10% basic customs duty has front‑loaded some demand and then slowed fresh buying, adding to export competition into other destinations.
• Improved lentil harvests in France and Australia contribute to a more comfortable global balance sheet, with Australia alone supplying around 1 million tonnes of red lentils largely into India, freeing Canadian product to chase alternative markets, including China.
• Input costs (notably fertilizers) have moderated from their peaks but remain relatively elevated, so farmers globally are cautious about further acreage expansion, limiting downside risk beyond the current oversupply phase.

🌦️ Weather Outlook – China Focus

• Beijing and key North China Plain areas are seeing mild early‑spring conditions: daytime highs around 15–23°C over the coming week with generally dry, hazy weather but no significant cold snaps.
• These conditions are neutral‑to‑supportive for spring fieldwork and do not pose any immediate threat to pulse or lentil sowing plans, implying no short‑term weather‑driven supply shock for the Chinese market.

📆 Trading Outlook (Short Term)

• Producers (CN): Consider modest forward sales on rallies; abundant Canadian and Australian supplies argue against holding out for significantly higher prices in the near term.
• Domestic buyers (CN): Use current stability to layer in coverage for Q2–Q3; prioritize green lentil procurement while the premium over reds remains historically high but range‑bound.
• Importers/Traders: Monitor Chinese–Canadian trade relations and freight costs; any normalization in ag tariffs or further freight softening would pressure CN FOB offers and favour shorter‑dated purchases.

📉 3‑Day Price Bias (EUR, Directional)

Region / Product	Current FOB Level (approx. EUR/kg)	3‑Day Bias
Beijing – Small Green Lentils, Conventional	1.08–1.10	Sideways to slightly softer (‑0.5% to 1%)
Beijing – Small Green Lentils, Organic	1.13–1.16	Sideways; stable premium vs. conventional
Canada – Green Lentils (export reference)	1.55–1.65	Sideways; heavy stocks cap upside
Canada – Red Lentils (export reference)	2.30–2.40	Slightly softer; strong competition into India