Chinese Lentil FOB Prices Hold Steady Amid Global Oversupply

Chinese lentil FOB prices are broadly stable to slightly softer, with modest downside risk capped by still-firm global green lentil premiums over reds and steady domestic demand in China. Chinese small green lentils (FOB Beijing) are trading in a tight range, with conventional and organic quotes edging lower month‑on‑month as global lentil supplies remain ample and Canadian export availability stays high following a large 2025 harvest. Internationally, Canada and Australia continue to dominate red and green lentil trade, and recent Canadian data point to strong export volumes but heavy carryout, keeping a lid on any price rallies. Near‑term, benign spring weather in northern China and soft freight rates out of Chinese ports argue for largely sideways price action rather than a sharp move in either direction.

Prices & Spreads

• CN small green lentils, conventional, FOB Beijing, are roughly EUR 1.08–1.10/kg, flat versus a week ago in EUR terms after a mild earlier softening.
• CN small green lentils, organic, FOB Beijing, stand near EUR 1.13–1.16/kg, maintaining a small but stable premium over conventional as domestic organic demand is niche but resilient.
• Canadian green lentils (Laird/Eston) for export trade imply FOB values around EUR 1.55–1.65/kg, while Canadian red lentils sit near EUR 2.30–2.40/kg, reflecting a still‑wide green/red premium despite global oversupply.
• The green/red spread remains historically elevated, supporting Chinese green lentil values but limiting upside as buyers can substitute imported reds where quality and end‑use allow.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

• Canada’s 2025 lentil crop is estimated above 3.0–3.4 million tonnes, up more than one‑third year‑on‑year, ensuring plentiful exportable surplus into 2026.
• Export data show Canadian lentil shipments in 2024/25 running 20–30% ahead of the previous year, even after a sharp month‑to‑month decline in early 2025, underscoring robust yet not deficit‑clearing demand.
• India’s lentil imports have cooled as domestic output improved and policy favoured other pulses; this shifts incremental demand toward markets such as Bangladesh, the Middle East and China, but not enough to absorb the larger global crop.
• China itself has emerged as a modest but growing green lentil origin, with estimated average production near 1.6 million tonnes of pulses, and is increasingly active both as importer and exporter within Asia.
• Freight markets from China remain relatively soft, with stable container availability across Asia; this supports competitive FOB offers out of Chinese ports and helps cap local price increases.

Market Fundamentals

• Global lentil markets are characterized by heavy carryover stocks, especially in Canada, leaving prices “flat to slightly lower” versus late 2025 and restraining any sustained rally in CN export values.
• India’s earlier duty‑free window for lentil imports and subsequent return to a 10% basic customs duty has front‑loaded some demand and then slowed fresh buying, adding to export competition into other destinations.
• Improved lentil harvests in France and Australia contribute to a more comfortable global balance sheet, with Australia alone supplying around 1 million tonnes of red lentils largely into India, freeing Canadian product to chase alternative markets, including China.
• Input costs (notably fertilizers) have moderated from their peaks but remain relatively elevated, so farmers globally are cautious about further acreage expansion, limiting downside risk beyond the current oversupply phase.

Weather Outlook – China Focus

• Beijing and key North China Plain areas are seeing mild early‑spring conditions: daytime highs around 15–23°C over the coming week with generally dry, hazy weather but no significant cold snaps.
• These conditions are neutral‑to‑supportive for spring fieldwork and do not pose any immediate threat to pulse or lentil sowing plans, implying no short‑term weather‑driven supply shock for the Chinese market.

Trading Outlook (Short Term)

• Producers (CN): Consider modest forward sales on rallies; abundant Canadian and Australian supplies argue against holding out for significantly higher prices in the near term.
• Domestic buyers (CN): Use current stability to layer in coverage for Q2–Q3; prioritize green lentil procurement while the premium over reds remains historically high but range‑bound.
• Importers/Traders: Monitor Chinese–Canadian trade relations and freight costs; any normalization in ag tariffs or further freight softening would pressure CN FOB offers and favour shorter‑dated purchases.

3‑Day Price Bias (EUR, Directional)