Chinese Lentils Exports: Seasonal Swings but Upward Potential

Chinese lentils exports are entering a period of normal seasonal softness, but the broader trend still points to growth potential in volumes and market reach. Recent FOB prices in both China and Canada have eased slightly, reflecting comfortable short-term supply and cautious buying, rather than a structural demand loss. Market feedback indicates clear seasonality in China’s lentils export flows. Peak months such as March, August, September and October typically see concentrated international orders, more domestic availability and stronger price moves, driving temporary highs in export value and volume. By contrast, January, February, June and December are usually quieter, as holidays, lower inland supply and digestion of earlier contracts weigh on shipments. Despite these month‑to‑month swings, exporters still perceive a positive medium‑term trend, with room for further growth in China’s lentils export footprint.

Prices

Recent offers show a mild easing trend in global lentils prices, including Chinese origins. Canadian FOB Ottawa levels (converted to EUR) are around:

• Lentils dried, Laird Green: ~EUR 1.40/kg (down from ~EUR 1.43/kg in late June)
• Lentils dried, Eston Green: ~EUR 1.35/kg (down from ~EUR 1.38/kg)
• Lentils dried, Red football: ~EUR 2.30/kg (down from ~EUR 2.33/kg)

Chinese FOB Beijing small green lentils currently trade near:

• Conventional, 99.5% purity: ~EUR 1.16/kg (from ~EUR 1.20/kg in early July)
• Organic, 99.5% purity: ~EUR 1.21/kg (from ~EUR 1.24/kg)

The modest decline across both Canada and China suggests buyers are price‑sensitive ahead of the next active export window, rather than facing acute supply tightness.

Supply & Demand

Exporters report that international demand remains the primary driver of China’s lentils shipments. In peak months (March, August–October), concentrated overseas orders combine with heavier domestic arrivals to push export volumes and values higher, as seen in the strong month‑on‑month gains in March 2026 and the expected surge again in August 2026.

In low‑season months (January, February, June, December), shipments typically drop as holiday effects slow logistics, upstream supply tightens and earlier contracts are digested. The pronounced month‑on‑month falls in February and June 2026 fit this pattern. Overall, such intra‑year volatility is viewed as normal and consistent with a still‑growing export sector rather than a structural downturn.

Fundamentals & Seasonality

The combination of international demand, domestic production, price movements and the trade environment creates visible monthly swings in China’s lentils exports. However, market participants emphasize that the underlying trend retains growth potential, with China consolidating its role as a competitive supplier, particularly in small green lentils.

Given the typical calendar pattern, the current phase is best seen as a transition from early‑summer lull towards the more active export months around August to October. Buyers and sellers alike should therefore prepare for a likely acceleration in inquiries and shipments as seasonal demand builds and domestic supplies are more actively marketed.

Outlook & Trading Strategy

• Short‑term prices: After the recent softening, FOB prices for both Chinese and Canadian lentils are likely to stabilize near current EUR levels, with only modest downside as long as demand remains steady.
• Export rhythm: Expect stronger export activity and potentially firmer basis levels from August through October, in line with the usual seasonal peak in orders and domestic throughput.
• Buying strategy: Importers with Q3–Q4 needs may consider layering in coverage during July’s relative price softness, focusing on quality and logistics terms rather than waiting for significantly lower prices.
• Seller strategy: Chinese exporters can use current levels to secure base volumes while keeping some capacity for possible price improvement once seasonal demand accelerates.

3‑Day Directional Price Indication (EUR, FOB)

• China, small green lentils (conventional & organic): sideways to slightly firm, as local sellers show limited willingness to discount further.
• Canada, green lentils (Laird/Eston): broadly stable with a mild upward bias if inquiries improve ahead of the next export peak.
• Canada, red lentils: stable; any move is expected to be modest and mainly driven by nearby shipment demand.