Chinese Millet Prices Edge Higher as Weather Turns Hot and Dry

Chinese FOB millet prices are inching higher in late May, supported by firm domestic demand and an emerging hot, dry pattern across North China that could raise weather risk premiums. Millet is trading near the upper end of China’s recent wholesale range, and the modest price uptick contrasts with broadly well‑supplied grain markets. In North China, an early heat spell and mostly dry skies are accelerating crop development and keeping harvest expectations broadly stable, but also heightening sensitivity to any June rainfall deficits. At the same time, China’s grain balance sheet remains comfortable, with policy signals pointing to strong domestic production and only moderate import needs. This combination of solid demand, supportive weather risk and benign macro grain conditions is keeping the millet market gently bid rather than explosive.

Prices & Spreads

Based on the latest indications for Beijing (FOB, converted at approx. 1 USD = 0.92 EUR):

These values sit toward the upper part of the current indicative Chinese wholesale range of about 0.57–0.83 EUR/kg for millet, signalling a relatively firm domestic market.

Supply, Demand & Policy Context

China’s broader grain outlook for 2026 remains one of stable to slightly higher production, with official projections stressing ample supply of major staples and feed grains. This reduces systemic tightness risk for minor cereals like millet, even as niche food and feed demand grows.

Recent customs data show China’s total grain and grain‑flour imports in January–April jumped by about 47% year on year, underlining active replenishment of cereal supplies. However, policy guidance also points to curbing some oilseed and meat imports in 2026, hinting that authorities are comfortable with domestic feed grain availability. Against this backdrop, millet benefits from steady domestic demand rather than a surge in structural tightness.

Weather Snapshot (Region: CN)

North China – including the Beijing area – is transitioning rapidly into summer conditions. Forecasts for Beijing over May 28–31 call for predominantly clear to partly cloudy skies, high temperatures in the upper‑20s to low‑30s °C, and little significant rainfall.

Earlier in May, meteorological agencies warned of an unusually early heat wave across the North China Plain, with parts of North China expected to enter summer ahead of southern regions. While recent rains in some wheat areas have raised concerns about harvest quality, millet‑growing zones so far appear more affected by warmth than by excess moisture. For now, the pattern supports rapid crop development but increases vulnerability if June turns hotter and drier than normal.

Market Drivers & Fundamentals

• Firm but not tight grain balance: Global grain outlooks still anticipate comfortable supplies for key cereals, and China’s own projections stress strong domestic production capacity in 2026. This caps the upside for millet but prevents a major downside break.
• Demand from health and niche segments: Millets continue to attract attention in global food markets as climate‑resilient and health‑oriented grains, which supports underlying demand and helps keep Chinese prices at a premium to basic feed grains.
• Weather risk premium building: The early heat in North China, together with mostly dry short‑term forecasts, is nudging risk premiums higher, especially for higher‑quality hulled product, even though no severe crop threats are yet confirmed.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Export sellers (CN, FOB): With prices near the upper end of recent ranges, consider layering in incremental hedging or forward sales on current strength, especially for premium organic and high‑purity lots. Retain some upside exposure in case June weather turns markedly drier.
• Importers and processors: Use any minor dips from current levels to secure medium‑term coverage, focusing on quality differentials rather than waiting for a major price break that current fundamentals do not justify.
• Feed formulators: Monitor relative pricing versus sorghum and corn; if millet maintains a firm premium, inclusion rates may remain limited to specific rations and specialty uses.

3-Day Directional Price View (Region: CN)