Chinese Soybean FOB Prices Edge Higher as Brazil Flows Stay Strong

Chinese FOB soybean prices are firming, supported by higher global export values and still-solid Chinese import demand anchored in Brazil’s record flows. Short term, Beijing-origin offers are edging up, while international benchmarks remain volatile but underpinned by heavy Brazilian shipments and strong Chinese buying. China’s domestic soybean market is tightening modestly as crushers work through high import volumes secured earlier in the year, while global trade flows remain strongly Brazil-centric. Recent data confirm that Brazil continues to dominate China’s soybean supply, with May and June export line-ups indicating another very strong shipment program, even if slightly below last year’s June volumes. At the same time, speculative positioning on CBOT has increased alongside higher open interest, pointing to a market that is attracting renewed risk capital despite some recent price softness.

Prices

All prices converted approximately to EUR at 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR.

*Indicative conversion from recent CBOT values and typical Gulf basis; Chinese CFR/FOB netbacks track these levels with freight and quality discounts added.

CBOT soybean futures have been choppy, recently easing on better-than-expected U.S. planting and favorable weather, but overall open interest has climbed to around 1.05 million contracts, up on the week and year, signalling stronger speculative engagement. This speculative inflow, together with strong Brazilian export data, is helping to underpin international flat prices, which filters into firmer replacement costs for Chinese buyers and lifts Beijing FOB indications.

Supply & Demand

Brazil remains the dominant driver of China’s soybean supply. Customs and trade data show that Brazilian soybean exports to China jumped about 83% year on year in the first two months of 2026, reaching roughly 6.5 million tonnes. New estimates for May exports indicate Brazil shipped about 14.8 million tonnes of soybeans, above last year’s level, with China still the largest single buyer despite a slightly reduced share of total exports.

For June, Brazilian port line‑ups point to around 12.9 million tonnes of soybeans scheduled for export, slightly below June 2025 but still historically high, ensuring abundant nearby availability for Chinese crushers. Brazilian supply strength partly offsets weaker U.S. exports to China, which have lagged sharply amid ongoing trade frictions and tariff uncertainty, forcing U.S. exporters to pivot to alternative destinations. Overall, China’s import demand remains robust as feed and vegetable oil consumption keep crushers running at high, though not record, utilization rates.

Fundamentals & Weather (China)

China’s crushing margins earlier in 2026 were positive, supported by firm soybean meal demand and relatively high oil values, and although they have narrowed versus around February, they remain generally workable for efficiently run plants. As a result, stock levels of imported beans at major ports are adequate but not burdensome, leaving domestic FOB prices in Beijing somewhat sensitive to changes in external replacement costs and in freight from Brazil.

Weather-wise, early June conditions across much of China are seasonally warm with localized heavy showers in the Northeast soybean belt (Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning), but no major widespread stress has been reported over the last few days that would materially alter 2026 output expectations. Forecasts for the coming week indicate typical early‑summer volatility with scattered storms and short heat spells rather than prolonged drought or flooding, keeping weather a secondary driver for now compared with trade flows and policy news.

3‑Day Outlook & Trading View

Trading outlook (CN‑focused)

• Importers / crushers (China): With Brazilian supply abundant but FOB Brazil firm, consider maintaining moderate coverage for nearby July–August positions; avoid aggressive forward buying beyond Q3 until CBOT weather and U.S. crop prospects are clearer.
• Domestic sellers (CN origin beans): The small week‑on‑week gains in Beijing FOB prices suggest some room for slightly higher offers, but competition from imported Brazilian beans caps upside; scale‑up selling is advisable on further rallies.
• Speculators: Rising open interest and strong Chinese demand make breaks in CBOT an opportunity for cautious long exposure, but positions should be tightly managed around U.S. weather and any fresh China–U.S. trade headlines.

Short‑term CN price indication (next 3 days)

• Beijing FOB – yellow, organic: Mildly bullish; prices likely to hold around current ≈0.75 EUR/kg with an upside bias of 1–2% if CBOT stabilizes and Brazilian basis stays firm.
• Beijing FOB – yellow, conventional: Slightly firmer tone; expect sideways‑to‑higher trade near ≈0.67 EUR/kg, tracking imported replacement costs and local crush demand.
• Imported CN‑delivered equivalent (Brazilian origin): Stable to marginally higher as strong Brazilian export program and freight keep floor under landed costs into southern Chinese ports.