Chinese Walnut Kernels Hold Firm as Export Demand Stabilises

Chinese walnut kernel prices are holding steady after a mild uptick in late March, with FOB Dalian offers broadly unchanged in early April and a slightly firmer tone for higher grades. Export demand is described as stable-to-cautious, while buyers remain price‑sensitive amid higher global freight costs. Weather in key producing areas of northern China is seasonally cool and dry, implying no immediate risk to the next crop.

In this environment, the market is trading a narrow range: sellers are reluctant to concede discounts after recent cost increases, while international buyers compare Chinese offers closely with US and other origins. California’s walnut industry continues to recover from earlier oversupply, but recent analysis there focuses more on cost structures than any new supply shock, limiting immediate impact on Chinese FOB levels. Near term, the Chinese market looks balanced, with modest upside risk if freight tightens again or if demand for snack and bakery use improves into late spring.

📈 Prices & Spreads

All prices converted approximately to EUR using 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR.

Origin / Location	Product	Delivery	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1-week Change
CN / Dalian	Walnut kernels, light quarter	FOB	≈ 3.08	Stable w/w
CN / Dalian	Walnut kernels, light pieces 8–12 mm	FOB	≈ 2.62	Stable w/w
CN / Dalian	Walnut kernels, light amber pieces 8–12 mm	FOB	≈ 2.12	Stable w/w
CN / Dalian	Walnut kernels, light broken 4–8 mm	FOB	≈ 2.72	Stable w/w
US (to EU)	Walnut kernels, light halves, organic	FOB Europe	≈ 4.19	Stable w/w

Chinese kernels thus retain a clear cost advantage over US organic walnut halves, with spreads of roughly 1.0–2.0 EUR/kg depending on grade.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Logistics

China remains the dominant exporter of walnut kernels into many Asian, Middle Eastern and some European destinations. Recent global trade data show Chinese nut exports trending stable, with no fresh policy shocks for walnuts in the last few days.

On the supply side, California’s 2025 walnut crop was significantly larger than 2024 and the industry continues to work down earlier stocks, but 2026 commentary out of California now focuses more on cost pressures and orchard economics than on new production surges. This limits immediate downward pressure on Chinese FOB offers, though US walnuts remain a structural competitor in premium markets.

On the demand side, India and parts of the Middle East remain price‑sensitive buyers after a period of high import costs for several food commodities and elevated freight rates since late February. Higher container freight from Asia (up to roughly 120–130 USD/t on some routes) squeezes imported nut margins and encourages buyers to negotiate harder on origin prices, but so far this has not translated into visible price cuts in Dalian.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather (CN Focus)

Short‑term fundamentals for Chinese walnuts look balanced. Inventories in main export hubs like Dalian are described as adequate, and there is no fresh news of quality issues or major crop damage. Broader coverage of Chinese nut and seed markets points to generally comfortable supply and only a modestly firmer tone in some products after Lunar New Year.

For Dalian and key northeastern growing areas, the 3‑day weather outlook (5–7 April 2026) is seasonally cool with highs around 12–16°C, mostly sunny to partly cloudy, and no significant precipitation. This pattern is benign for orchards at this time of year and does not pose immediate frost or heat stress risks. As a result, weather is a neutral factor for the walnut market in the very near term.

📆 Short-Term Market & Trading Outlook

With FOB Dalian prices unchanged over the past week and only modest gains over the second half of March, the market appears to be consolidating after an earlier uptick. The main near‑term swing factor is freight: if container rates stabilise or ease, Chinese offers could become more attractive without needing a origin‑level price cut.

• For importers/buyers: Consider covering near‑term needs at current Chinese FOB levels, especially for light quarters and light pieces, as the risk of significant downside appears limited while freight remains elevated.
• For Chinese exporters/packers: Maintain offer levels but stay flexible on logistics terms; small concessions on freight or payment terms may secure volume without eroding nominal price benchmarks.
• For food manufacturers: Monitor relative spreads between Chinese kernels and US/other origins; current differentials still favour Chinese material for cost‑focused applications, while US origin may remain preferred in some premium segments.

📉 3-Day Price Direction (Region CN)

Given steady FOB quotations, neutral weather and no fresh supply news, Chinese walnut kernel prices in Dalian are expected to remain broadly stable over the next three days (5–7 April 2026). Any moves are likely to be within a very narrow range, driven mainly by individual deal negotiations and day‑to‑day freight indications rather than by fundamentals.