Cinnamon Market Steady as India and Vietnam Hold Soft Bearish Bias

Indian and Vietnamese cinnamon prices are flat to slightly softer, with no fresh bullish catalyst from weather or demand. Export flows remain steady but unspectacular, keeping a mild downward bias for cassia qualities, while premium Ceylon-origin material trades in a narrow range. The cinnamon complex is currently characterised by comfortable supply and a lack of aggressive buying from major destination markets. India’s broader spice export basket has softened in value this year, reflecting generally weaker global demand, while Vietnam maintains its role as a key low-cost cassia supplier into Asia, Europe and North America. Weather in main growing belts in India and Vietnam is seasonally favourable, limiting near‑term production risk. In this context, FOB indications from New Delhi and Hanoi are stable, and buyers can negotiate small discounts on bulk cassia grades without triggering a supply squeeze.

Prices

FOB New Delhi and Hanoi indications converted to EUR (approx. 1 USD = 0.93 EUR, rounded):

External wholesale benchmarks for dried cinnamon confirm a broadly soft to stable tone, with June quotations for cassia and blended “Zimt (Cassia)” products only marginally higher month-on-month and well below last year’s peaks.

Supply & Demand

Global dried cinnamon supply remains concentrated in a few origins, led by Indonesia, Vietnam, China and Sri Lanka, with India playing a secondary but growing role in both cassia and Ceylon segments. Export pipelines are currently ample, and there are no major logistics disruptions on key Asian routes.

India’s overall spice exports have come under pressure in value terms during FY 2025–26, as key items like chilli and cumin face weaker demand and lower prices. While cinnamon is a smaller component within this basket, the same demand softness and cautious buying patterns from Europe and West Asia spill over into cinnamon, capping upside. At the same time, easing tensions and improving trade flows into West Asia are gradually supporting sentiment for Indian spices, but this is not yet translating into stronger cinnamon prices.

Vietnam continues to position itself as a cost-competitive cassia origin, with expanding organic-certified areas in northern provinces underpinning medium-term supply growth. Export demand from North America and Europe is firm but not overheated, as buyers are sufficiently covered and remain sensitive to food inflation and inventory costs.

Weather & Crop Conditions (IN, VN)

In India, the southwest monsoon has advanced into key southern and western regions roughly on schedule in June, bringing widespread rainfall to Kerala and adjoining spice-growing belts. For cinnamon and related tree spices in southern India, current moisture conditions are broadly supportive, with no significant reports of drought or flood stress affecting bark development.

Vietnam’s main cassia zones in the north and central highlands are entering the core wet season with typical monsoon patterns; available regional updates point to normal to slightly above-normal rainfall, which favours tree growth and underpins expectations for steady 2026/27 harvest potential. There are, at present, no acute weather threats (e.g. typhoons or prolonged heatwaves) flagged for these areas over the very short term.

Fundamentals & Price Drivers

• Comfortable stocks: After last year’s tighter Ceylon availability and elevated cassia prices, inventories in importing regions are now more comfortable, contributing to today’s rangebound trade.
• Demand still cautious: Food manufacturers and packers in Europe and North America remain price‑sensitive and are limiting forward coverage in most spices, including cinnamon, waiting for clearer signals on consumer demand and Q4 retail pricing.
• Shift to certified and organic: The structural move toward organic and sustainably certified cinnamon, particularly from Vietnam and Sri Lanka, continues, but near‑term price premia remain modest in a soft market.
• Currency and freight: Stable freight rates on Asia–Europe lanes and relatively calm FX moves in INR and VND versus EUR mean origin price moves transmit fairly directly into euro‑denominated offers without major additional volatility.

3–10 Day Outlook & Trading View

Weather (next 3–10 days, IN & VN): Forecast models point to continued monsoon showers over southern India and normal wet-season rainfall over northern and central Vietnam, with no major anomalies expected that could disrupt harvest or post-harvest activities in the very short term.

Trading recommendations (short term)

• Industrial buyers (EU, MENA): Use the current soft, stable market to extend coverage on Vietnamese cassia split and broken grades for Q3–Q4 at or slightly below today’s levels, prioritising suppliers with proven quality and residue compliance.
• Blenders and premium brands: For Indian Ceylon sticks and powder, consider staggered purchases rather than large one‑time bookings; fundamentals are neutral, but any weather or logistics surprise later in the year could re‑widen the premium over cassia.
• Exporters in IN & VN: Avoid aggressive price hikes; focus on locking in volumes via flexible pricing and quality differentiation, as global demand signals do not yet justify a bullish stance.

3‑Day Regional Price Bias (FOB, in EUR)

• India – New Delhi (cassia & Ceylon, organic): Prices expected broadly sideways in the next 3 days, with a slight downside bias (<1%) possible on cassia powder amid quiet export demand.
• Vietnam – Hanoi (cassia grades): FOB indications likely to remain stable to marginally softer (≈0–1% lower) as sellers stay competitive to secure summer shipments in a well‑supplied global market.