Cinnamon Market Steady: Indian Ceylon Flat, Vietnamese Cassia Soft

Indian Ceylon and cassia cinnamon prices are broadly stable at late‑March levels, while Vietnamese cassia remains soft, reflecting ample supply and cautious demand. No major weather or policy shocks are visible for India or Vietnam in the immediate term, keeping the short‑term price outlook largely sideways.

Cinnamon markets in India and Vietnam are entering a phase of consolidation after incremental declines earlier in March. Indian FOB New Delhi levels for organic Ceylon and cassia powder have held unchanged for two consecutive weeks, suggesting that sellers are resisting further discounts at current values. Vietnamese cassia grades ex‑Hanoi are also flat compared with the previous week, but sit near the lower end of their recent range, underscoring lingering softness from comfortable raw material availability and moderate export enquiry. With no fresh supply shocks or sharp shifts in broader agri‑export flows reported in the last few days, near‑term price risks look balanced, with only modest downside for Vietnamese cassia.

📈 Prices & Recent Moves

Origin	Product	Location / Term	Latest Price (EUR/kg, approx.)	WoW Change	2‑Week Trend
India	Ceylon cinnamon, organic powder	FOB New Delhi	≈ 6.60	Flat	Flat after earlier minor easing
India	Ceylon cinnamon, organic sticks	FOB New Delhi	≈ 7.10	Flat	Flat after small mid‑March dip
India	Cassia sticks, organic	FOB New Delhi	≈ 6.75	Flat	Softer vs. early March, now steady
India	Cassia powder, organic	FOB New Delhi	≈ 4.60	Flat	Flat after earlier minor decline
Vietnam	Cassia split	FOB Hanoi	≈ 2.55	Flat	Soft vs. mid‑March, now stable
Vietnam	Cassia broken	FOB Hanoi	≈ 2.10	Flat	Soft vs. mid‑March, now stable
Vietnam	Cassia “cigarette” sticks	FOB Hanoi	≈ 4.75	Flat	Soft but unchanged for two weeks

Note: USD prices converted to EUR at ≈1.08 USD/EUR equivalent; figures rounded.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Context

Vietnam remains one of the largest cassia producers globally, with planted area around 167,000 ha and output near 45,000 tonnes, underpinning structurally ample supply. Recent trade presentations confirm India as a key destination for Vietnamese cassia exports, with shipments to India growing strongly in recent years, supporting the availability of competitively priced Vietnamese material in South Asia.

Broad Vietnamese export data for February 2026 show notable month‑on‑month declines across several agri and wood‑based categories, including fruits and vegetables (‑45.5% m/m) and wood products (‑39.6% m/m). While cinnamon is not detailed in these releases, the broader pattern suggests a cautious external demand environment, which helps explain why cassia prices in Hanoi remain subdued rather than tightening.

On the demand side, consumer awareness in India continues to differentiate higher‑priced Ceylon from bulk cassia, with premium buyers emphasizing origin and quality. This supports a persistent price gap between Indian Ceylon and cassia grades, even as overall offtake in late Q1 2026 is seasonally moderate following winter demand.

🌦️ Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions (Next Few Days)

In southern India, cinnamon‑supporting agro‑climatic zones in the Western Ghats (Kerala and adjoining areas) are currently in a relatively dry, pre‑monsoon pattern, following forecasts earlier in March of normal to below‑normal rainfall and warm daytime temperatures around the mid‑30s °C. Such conditions are typical for the season and, over the coming 3–5 days, are not expected to materially affect near‑term harvest or processing operations.

In Vietnam, key cassia regions in the north (such as Lao Cai and Yen Bai) are entering the late‑dry to early‑rainy transition. No acute weather disruptions (storms or flooding) have been reported in the latest general economic and export updates over the past few days, implying normal logistics from growing regions to export hubs like Hanoi. For the immediate horizon, weather is therefore a neutral factor for prices in both India and Vietnam.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Balance

Global cassia fundamentals remain relatively well supplied. Earlier reports from 2024 already pointed to softer Vietnamese export prices versus 2022–2023 peaks, reflecting expanded area and normalization after pandemic‑era spikes. With no evidence of fresh supply shocks in the last three days, this comfortable supply backdrop continues to cap upside for Hanoi‑based cassia grades.

For Indian Ceylon and cassia, domestic production is complemented by imported cassia (including Vietnamese origin), broadening available supply for blenders and packers. At the same time, continued differentiation between cassia and true Ceylon in the Indian retail segment encourages packers to maintain distinct premium lines, helping Ceylon prices hold firm despite softness in cassia. Overall, fundamentals currently argue for a sideways price pattern rather than a sharp move in either direction.

📆 Trading Outlook (Next 1–2 Weeks)

• Indian Ceylon (powder & sticks, FOB New Delhi): Bias is sideways to slightly firm. Tightness is limited, but sellers show little willingness to discount further. Buyers with Q2 needs could secure partial coverage now, leaving some volume open in case of any seasonal softening.
• Indian cassia powder & sticks: Market is balanced. End‑users can continue hand‑to‑mouth buying; any dip driven by weak export sentiment in Vietnam could be used to extend coverage into early Q3.
• Vietnamese cassia (split, broken, cigarette, FOB Hanoi): Tone remains mildly soft but stable. Importers should negotiate aggressively, using the broader weakness in Vietnamese export flows as leverage, but avoid over‑short positions in case of logistics cost upticks.

📉 3‑Day Regional Price Indication & Direction

• India (FOB New Delhi, Ceylon & cassia): Prices expected to remain in a narrow band around current EUR‑equivalent levels over the next three days, with a stable to slightly firm tone and limited downside risk.
• Vietnam (FOB Hanoi, cassia grades): Prices likely to trade sideways at the lower end of the recent range, with a mild downward bias if export enquiry remains thin, but no sharp falls anticipated in the next three days.