Cinnamon Prices Flat but Vulnerable to Monsoon and Heat in India & Vietnam

Cinnamon export prices in India and Vietnam are currently stable, with no meaningful week‑on‑week moves. Mild monsoon conditions in Indian spice regions and hot, mostly dry weather in Vietnam are not yet disrupting supply, keeping the near‑term price outlook largely sideways. The market is dominated by steady FOB quotations from New Delhi and Hanoi, while broader spice exports from India face softer global demand. Weather in Kerala and key Vietnamese cinnamon provinces is seasonally normal: monsoon rains in India support trees without major flood risk, and Vietnam’s northern and central uplands remain very warm with only scattered showers. Under these conditions, buyers can expect limited volatility in the next few days, though any shift towards heavier rainfall in India or extended heat stress in Vietnam would quickly become price‑relevant.

Prices

FOB offers converted to EUR (approx. 1 USD = 0.93 EUR; rounded):

External Vietnam offers for split cassia, last updated June 25, are broadly aligned with these levels, indicating a balanced market without aggressive discounting or spikes.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam remains a highly competitive supplier of cassia, offering a range of grades for export and indicating ample year‑round availability. This is consistent with the current flat price structure ex‑Hanoi.

In India, recent industry data show total spice exports under some pressure from softer global demand, even though the headline weakness is driven more by chilli and cumin than by cinnamon. For cinnamon, this translates into a steady flow of offers but slower forward bookings, helping to cap any upside in New Delhi FOB quotes for both cassia and Ceylon qualities.

Weather & Crop Outlook (IN, VN)

India – Kerala and Southern Belt

Kerala, a key cinnamon and spice region, is firmly in monsoon mode. Short‑term forecasts for late June point to temperatures around 28°C with typical monsoon humidity and rainfall close to seasonal norms, without indications of extreme flooding or prolonged dry spells. Under these conditions, tree health and bark development should be adequately supported, with no immediate supply threat for the coming weeks.

Vietnam – Northern & Central Uplands (e.g., Yên Bái, Quảng Ngãi)

Yên Bái, an important cinnamon area in northern Vietnam, is forecast over the coming days to see hot weather around the mid‑30s °C with very limited rainfall. Central areas like Quảng Ngãi are expected to remain very warm (night temperatures around 28°C) with light rain and high humidity but no severe storms. This pattern implies some heat stress but still manageable field conditions for harvest and post‑harvest drying.

Fundamentals & Short-Term Drivers

• Steady export offers in Vietnam and India suggest comfortable nearby availability and no acute logistical disruptions.
• Broader spice market commentary points to generally adequate supplies and only modest demand growth across several spices, which also weighs on buyers’ urgency for cinnamon coverage.
• Macro‑level export data indicate that India’s spice sector is facing softer overseas demand, reinforcing a stable‑to‑slightly‑soft tone rather than a bullish one for Indian cinnamon in the near term.
• Weather risk is present but currently moderate: a shift towards heavier monsoon surpluses in Kerala or prolonged extreme heat in Vietnamese uplands would be the main watchpoints for Q3.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price View

Trading Recommendations (Next 1–3 Weeks)

• Importers in Europe & MENA: Use current flat prices to extend nearby cover modestly (30–45 days) rather than locking in long‑dated positions; weather risk is not yet priced in but remains limited in the very short term.
• Vietnamese exporters: With external offers aligned to stable FOB Hanoi indications, consider maintaining current price ideas but remain flexible on freight‑adjusted deals to capture demand from cost‑sensitive buyers.
• Indian exporters: Given softer overall spice export sentiment, a small promotional discount on lower‑grade cassia powder or blended packs may help stimulate incremental demand without altering benchmark quotes for premium organic and Ceylon lines.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• India – New Delhi FOB (cassia & Ceylon, organic): Sideways in EUR; no change expected over the next three days as monsoon conditions remain near‑normal and overseas demand steady but unspectacular.
• Vietnam – Hanoi FOB (cassia split, broken, cigarette): Sideways bias; hot but mostly dry weather aids logistics, while comfortable stocks and stable offers keep prices anchored in current EUR ranges.