Cinnamon Prices Stable to Soft in India, Flat in Vietnam Ahead of Summer Window

Indian and Vietnamese cinnamon prices are moving in a narrow band in early April, with a mild softening for Indian organic grades and largely unchanged levels in Vietnam. Weather in key growing areas is seasonally warm but non‑disruptive, keeping supply flows stable and limiting any immediate bullish drivers.

Cinnamon markets remain fundamentally balanced. Indian Ceylon and cassia offers out of New Delhi have edged down only marginally week‑on‑week, while Vietnamese cassia quotations around Hanoi are flat versus late March. Calm, seasonally warm weather in Kerala (India) and central Vietnam supports normal harvest and post‑harvest operations over the coming days, and no fresh policy or logistics shocks have emerged in the past 72 hours. In this environment, buyers see little urgency to chase prices higher, and sellers are inclined to roll offers rather than discount aggressively.

📈 Prices & Recent Moves

All prices below are indicative FOB offers converted to EUR/kg (≈ 1 USD = 0.92 EUR) as of 4 April 2026.

Origin	Type	Spec	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	WoW Change	Comment
India (IN)	Cassia sticks	Organic	≈ 6.72	-0.1%	Very slight easing; demand steady.
India (IN)	Cassia powder	Organic	≈ 4.55	-1.0%	Small correction after previous firmness.
India (IN)	Ceylon sticks	Organic	≈ 7.06	-0.4%	Premium over cassia intact, slight softening.
India (IN)	Ceylon powder	Organic	≈ 6.55	-0.3%	Narrow range trade, no strong cues.
Vietnam (VN)	Cassia split	Conventional	≈ 2.52	0.0%	Flat; export demand stable.
Vietnam (VN)	Cassia broken	Conventional	≈ 2.07	0.0%	Sideways; ample local supply.
Vietnam (VN)	Cassia “cigarette”	Conventional	≈ 4.69	0.0%	Premium stick forms steady.

🌍 Supply, Demand & External Drivers

On the demand side, global interest in organic cinnamon remains firm, supported by steady growth in the organic cinnamon segment highlighted in a recent global outlook, though this report points to a broadly stable rather than explosive near‑term growth environment. This aligns with the current price behaviour in India, where organic cassia and Ceylon grades show only marginal weekly moves.

From the supply side, there have been no new trade policy changes on spices in India over the last three days, and recent government communication continues to emphasise export promotion rather than restrictions, keeping a supportive framework for outbound spice flows in general. Vietnamese macro export data released this week do not flag any abrupt disruption in agri‑trade logistics, suggesting cinnamon shipments can continue to move within normal parameters, even if product‑specific numbers are not yet broken out.

⛅ Weather Outlook – IN & VN Growing Regions

In India, key cinnamon‑linked spice areas in Kerala around Kochi face a typical pre‑monsoon pattern: warm temperatures around 31–32°C with a mix of sunshine and isolated thunderstorms over 5–7 April. These conditions are favourable for tree health and post‑harvest drying, with only localised showers posing short‑term drying interruptions.

In Vietnam, central regions such as Quang Ngai are entering a hot, dry spell with highs of 33–34°C and hazy sunshine through the next three days. While heat raises field‑work costs and requires careful moisture management for young trees, it is broadly positive for drying bark and chips, supporting stable near‑term availability. No immediate weather‑driven supply shock is evident in either origin.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Tone

• Inventory & pipeline: Current price stability and narrow week‑on‑week moves suggest comfortable pipeline stocks in both India and Vietnam. No acute tightness is visible in offer behaviour.
• Form differentials: The premium of Indian Ceylon over cassia remains wide in EUR terms, but the very small recent softening hints at some buyer resistance at higher levels, especially for powder.
• Organic vs conventional: Organic cassia and Ceylon grades in India continue to command strong premiums versus Vietnamese conventional cassia. The stable global organic cinnamon outlook supports these differentials but does not currently drive fresh upside.
• Macro & freight: No new freight or port disruptions have been reported for Indian or Vietnamese outbound containers in the past 72 hours in mainstream trade coverage; this keeps basis risk and shipment delays relatively contained at present.

📆 Short-Term Price Outlook & Trading Pointers

Trading outlook (next 1–2 weeks)

• Buyers (food processors, blenders, packers): Use current slight softness in Indian organic cassia and Ceylon to secure nearby and early‑Q3 coverage on a staggered basis rather than front‑loading large volumes. Focus on high‑quality lots where discounts have appeared.
• Exporters in India: With weather benign and no fresh bullish policy news, maintain offers but be prepared for small tactical discounts on larger lots to move inventory, especially in powder forms.
• Exporters in Vietnam: Hold a neutral stance; with cassia prices flat and hot, favourable drying weather, aggressive price cuts are not warranted unless export demand softens unexpectedly.

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (EUR, FOB)

• India (New Delhi, IN):
  • Cassia (sticks & powder, organic): Bias mildly lower to sideways (‑0.5% to 0%) as buyers test downside but strong premiums limit deeper corrections.
  • Ceylon (sticks & powder, organic): Sideways to marginally softer (‑0.3% to 0%) with stable supply and only moderate spot demand.
• Vietnam (Hanoi, VN):
  • Cassia split/broken/cigarette (conventional): Sideways (0%) over the next three days; hot, dry weather aids supply stability and there are no fresh demand shocks in sight.