Cinnamon Prices Stable to Softer in India and Vietnam as Supply Stays Comfortable

Cinnamon export prices from India and Vietnam are broadly stable with a slight softening bias, as comfortable cassia supplies out of Vietnam and steady Ceylon inflows into India cap near‑term upside. No acute weather or logistics disruptions are visible for key producing regions over the coming days, keeping the market focused on demand and currency rather than crop risk.

Indian and Vietnamese cinnamon markets are trading in a narrow range, with modest week‑on‑week easing already visible in cassia and Ceylon quotations. Trade data show India’s whole‑stick cinnamon imports have surged in value over the past year, largely driven by higher Sri Lankan Ceylon offers, yet current FOB levels in New Delhi remain flat on the week, suggesting buyers are resisting further hikes. Simultaneously, provincial statistics from Vietnam indicate expanding cinnamon output, particularly in central provinces, reinforcing a comfortable supply backdrop. With no imminent weather threat flagged for major growing belts in India or Vietnam, short‑term price risks look skewed slightly to the downside rather than another sharp rally.

📈 Prices & Recent Moves

All prices converted to EUR at an indicative 1 USD = 0.92 EUR and rounded.

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Product	Origin	Location	Spec	FOB 21 Mar 2026 (EUR/kg)	1‑week change	2‑week change
Ceylon cinnamon sticks (organic)	India	New Delhi	Premium	≈ 7.10	Flat	▼ ~0.05
Ceylon cinnamon powder (organic)	India	New Delhi	Premium	≈ 6.60	Flat	▼ ~0.05
Cassia sticks (organic)	India	New Delhi	Export	≈ 6.75	Flat	▼ ~0.05
Cassia powder (organic)	India	New Delhi	Export	≈ 4.60	Flat	▼ ~0.05
Cassia split	Vietnam	Hanoi	Conventional	≈ 2.50	Flat	▼ ~0.05
Cassia broken	Vietnam	Hanoi	Conventional	≈ 2.05	Flat	▼ ~0.05
Cassia cigarette	Vietnam	Hanoi	Conventional	≈ 4.70	Flat	▼ ~0.05

• International reference series for Ceylon and cassia published by the Spices Board of India show a multi‑year uptrend in Ceylon premiums, but no evidence of a fresh spike this week. 
• Recent import research highlights that Indian whole‑stick cinnamon (HS 090611) values in late 2025 were driven mainly by price rather than volume, with Sri Lankan Ceylon offers near USD 9,000/t FOB, broadly consistent with current premium levels against cassia.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

India (IN)

• India relies heavily on imports of Ceylon sticks from Sri Lanka alongside domestic production in southern India; recent trade analysis confirms rapid growth in import values, indicating robust demand from branded tea, health, and bakery segments.
• Retail chatter and consumer discussions point to rising awareness and willingness to pay a premium for authentic Ceylon cinnamon versus cheaper cassia, which helps underpin high‑grade stick and powder prices despite softening freight and stable crops.

Vietnam (VN)

• Vietnam remains a major cassia exporter; provincial statistics from Quang Ngai show cinnamon production rose more than 6% year‑on‑year in 2024, reflecting continued area expansion and investment in production forests.
• Broader climate‑impact assessments still classify central Vietnam provinces such as Quang Nam and Quang Ngai as medium‑risk for climate change rather than acutely stressed, implying no immediate structural cut in supply.

Demand environment

• Global interest in Ceylon cinnamon for health and wellness use continues to outpace that for cassia, particularly in premium markets, but recent online discussions also suggest some down‑trading to cassia for everyday use as price gaps widen, tempering Ceylon demand growth at the margin.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather Outlook (IN, VN)

India – key cinnamon belt (Kerala, Karnataka and adjoining areas)

• Recent traveller and local commentary for late March in Kerala describe typically hot and increasingly humid pre‑monsoon conditions but no reports of extreme rainfall, storms, or flooding that would disrupt spice logistics in the next few days.
• With harvest for many spice crops already past peak and transport routes functioning normally, near‑term supply of Indian cinnamon and cassia to New Delhi is expected to remain smooth.

Vietnam – cassia areas (central provinces & North, shipped via Hanoi)

• Climatological data show late‑March conditions in central provinces such as Quang Ngai are warm (mid‑20s °C) with manageable rainfall levels, supporting normal field operations and drying activities.
• No recent reports of severe weather or infrastructure disruption in these provinces over the past three days, implying that FOB Hanoi cassia flows should remain uninterrupted on the current horizon.

📆 Short‑Term Price Outlook (3 days)

India – New Delhi FOB

• Ceylon sticks & powder (organic): Sideways to slightly softer (0 to −0.5%) as comfortable availability and previous minor declines limit buyer urgency.
• Cassia sticks & powder (organic): Bias to mild downside (−0.5% to −1%), with Vietnamese cassia acting as a ceiling and no immediate weather or freight shock.

Vietnam – Hanoi FOB

• Cassia split & broken (conventional): Steady to marginally weaker (0 to −0.5%) on ample 2024 supply and competitive regional offers.
• Cassia cigarette (conventional): Largely range‑bound; slight softening possible if buyers resist current premiums over bulk grades.

🧭 Trading Recommendations

• Importers in Europe & MENA: Consider selectively extending coverage for Q2 in Vietnamese cassia grades at current Hanoi FOB levels, as the supply picture is comfortable and downside from here appears limited relative to historical lows.
• Buyers of organic Ceylon (IN origin): Maintain hand‑to‑mouth or short coverage only; with no weather threat and recent softening, better buying opportunities may arise if Sri Lankan offers ease or INR strengthens.
• Blenders & packers: Use current stability to optimise blends between Ceylon and cassia, locking in product margins while monitoring any new trade or sanitary rules affecting coumarin‑rich cassia in destination markets.