Colombia corn: shrinking harvest, rising import pull under El Niño

Colombia’s 2026/27 corn balance is tightening structurally: output is forecast down 6.9% to 1.4 million tonnes while consumption climbs to 9.76 million tonnes, pushing imports up to 8.3 million tonnes and further entrenching U.S. origin dominance. Corn prices in key export hubs are soft to sideways, but Colombia’s deepening production deficit, strong feed demand and a strengthening El Niño increase the country’s exposure to international price swings and freight spreads.

Prices

European and Black Sea corn quotes are mostly stable to slightly softer into early November. In India, organic corn starch FOB New Delhi is indicated at 1.33 EUR/kg, unchanged since mid-October. In the EU, French yellow corn FOB Paris last traded at 0.30 EUR/kg on 30 October, up from 0.28 EUR/kg a week earlier, while German feed-grade corn EXW Drentwede is around 0.275 EUR/kg, marginally below recent highs. In Ukraine, feed-grade corn from Odesa shows mixed moves, with FCA quotations steady at 0.16 EUR/kg and CPT values fluctuating around 0.14–0.142 EUR/kg over the second half of October, reflecting ample regional availability but ongoing logistical and risk premia.

Supply & Demand

For 2026/27, Colombia’s corn production is projected at 1.4 million tonnes, a 6.9% decline on the year. The drop is driven by El Niño–linked weather stress and persistently low farmgate prices since late 2024, which have curbed incentives to expand planted area. At the same time, total domestic corn consumption is forecast to rise to about 9.76 million tonnes, led by robust demand from the livestock and feed industries, while food, seed and industrial uses remain broadly stable.

With local output covering less than 15% of demand, imports are expected to reach 8.3 million tonnes in 2026/27, up roughly 1.2% year-on-year and almost six times domestic production. The United States is set to maintain a market share above 95% of Colombia’s corn imports, underpinned by the U.S.–Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement and competitive U.S. Gulf and Black Sea–linked pricing. Tightening ending stocks in Colombia, from about 377,000 tonnes in 2025/26 to an expected 302,000 tonnes in 2026/27, underline growing structural dependence on imported feed grains.

Weather & El Niño impact

The 2026–2027 El Niño has been officially declared by Colombia’s meteorological service and is assessed as strong to very strong, with a high probability of persisting through the first quarter of 2027. Current regional outlooks point to below-average rainfall over much of Colombia during the October–December 2026 period, consistent with typical El Niño patterns and increasing drought risk in key agricultural regions. These conditions add downside risk to both current and subsequent cropping cycles for corn and rice.

For Colombia’s feed grains complex, the combination of reduced yields, higher irrigation demand and elevated production risk is likely to keep local farmgate prices under upward pressure, even as international benchmarks remain relatively comfortable. Weather-related disruptions could also affect internal logistics and quality, adding to basis volatility between domestic prices and import-parity levels.

Fundamentals & trade flows

Fundamentally, Colombia is moving deeper into a structural import position in both corn and rice. Competitive world prices and an appreciated Colombian peso make imports attractive versus local production, particularly for large feed manufacturers. U.S. exporters stand to capture most of the incremental demand due to preferential tariff treatment and established supply chains, while regional competitors face tariff disadvantages and, in the case of Ecuador, ongoing trade frictions that limit their ability to ship rice and, indirectly, compete in grains.

On the global side, CBOT corn futures are trading in the upper-4 to low-5 USD/bushel range for nearby and Dec-2026 contracts, reflecting comfortable global stocks but also pricing in El Niño risks and strong export programs from major origins. Speculative positioning in Chicago remains moderate, with no extreme net-long or net-short imbalances, suggesting room for funds to add risk in either direction depending on South American weather and subsequent U.S. acreage signals.

Outlook & trading recommendations

• Importers / feed manufacturers in Colombia: Consider layering in additional coverage for early and mid-2027 feed needs while global prices and Black Sea/EU basis remain relatively soft, given the forecast 8.3 million tonnes import requirement and tightening local stocks.
• Producers in exporting regions (EU, Black Sea, U.S.): Monitor Colombian and broader Andean demand closely; structurally higher imports, especially in feed grains, create an opportunity for forward sales into 2026/27, particularly from origins with logistical advantages to Caribbean and Pacific ports.
• Traders: Watch El Niño–driven weather headlines and Colombian currency moves as key catalysts for basis and freight spreads; a stronger peso and further domestic crop stress could widen import-parity buying windows despite stable CBOT futures.

3‑day directional price indication

• EU corn (FOB Paris / EXW Germany): Slightly firm bias as Black Sea FOB values soften but local European demand for feed and starch supports basis.
• Black Sea / Ukraine corn (FOB/CPT Odesa): Mildly soft to sideways, reflecting sufficient nearby supply and continued competition among exporters.
• CBOT corn futures: Range-bound with a modestly bullish tilt, as markets balance strong El Niño signals against currently adequate global stock projections.