Corn balances on tighter US stocks and Black Sea export risks
Corn prices steady as tighter US balance and export demand clash with record South American crops and disrupted Ukrainian exports. Concise market outlook.
Prices
Euronext Nov 2026 corn is indicated around EUR 252.75/t, with new-crop Nov 2027 notably lower at about EUR 225.25/t, signalling expectations for some supply relief further out. On CBOT, nearby Sep 2026 trades near 460 USc/bu and Dec 2026 around 485 USc/bu, both modestly higher on the day, reflecting a slightly firmer international tone. Dalian (DCE) corn is comparatively flat, underscoring comfortable domestic Chinese balances for now.
Physical indications echo the futures structure. German feed corn (EXW) has firmed to roughly EUR 292/t, while French FOB corn is near EUR 240/t. Ukrainian corn ex Odesa remains sharply discounted at about EUR 170–180/t FCA/FOB equivalent, reflecting both ample local supply and significant export and logistics risk premiums.
*CBOT converted from USc/bu to EUR/t, approximate.
Supply & Demand
The current price support is driven mainly by the supply side. The US corn balance has tightened on lower projected ending stocks and resilient export demand, especially for old-crop. Weekly US export sales for old crop reached about 410,700 t in the week to 6 August, the highest in five weeks, led by Spain (257,600 t) and Mexico (74,000 t). This underscores that US corn remains competitive despite ample global availability.
New-crop export sales are a weak spot: they have fallen to around 924,500 t for the latest week, the lowest in three weeks and nearly 55% below last year’s level. This highlights buyer caution amid large upcoming South American supplies and ongoing macro uncertainty. Still, a structurally tighter US balance limits the downside for nearby contracts as long as export demand stays robust and weather risks persist.
Fundamentals: Americas vs. Black Sea
South America remains the main bearish counterweight. Argentina’s 2025/26 corn crop forecast has been raised from 68 to 70.5 million t on a larger-than-expected planted area, with around 75% of the area already harvested despite delays from unusually warm and wet July weather. For 2026/27, early estimates still point to a sizeable 66 million t crop, even after a projected 7.3% reduction in area. In Brazil, CONAB has increased its corn crop forecast by 1.23 million t to nearly 143 million t, including about 111 million t of second-crop (safrinha) corn.
The Black Sea sends a mixed signal. Ukraine exported about 1.403 million t of corn from the start of the 2026/27 marketing year to 14 August, almost 70% more than a year earlier and, for the first time, surpassing wheat exports in the same period. However, August shipments have slowed sharply, with only about 348,000 t of total grains moved in the first two weeks as maritime logistics again come under pressure and alternative routes struggle to compensate. With a record Ukrainian corn harvest approaching and seaborne exports constrained, a large share of this crop may remain trapped inland or move slowly via higher-cost routes, keeping Ukrainian basis weak but limiting effective exports to the global market.
Weather & Crop Conditions
Thunderstorms have recently crossed parts of the US Corn Belt, improving soil moisture in some areas, while other regions still face episodic heat. The market remains sensitive to any signs of prolonged stress during grain-fill. In Europe, persistent heat in key corn-growing areas has added to yield uncertainty, particularly in southwestern and central regions, even though some areas further north and east benefit from more favourable moisture conditions.
In South America, the combination of warm and wet conditions in Argentina slowed harvest progress but ultimately supported yield potential, while Brazil’s safrinha crop is largely made and underpins the very large production outlook. Weather risk for global supply in the short term is therefore concentrated in the Northern Hemisphere, especially the US and parts of Europe, rather than in South America.
Forecast & Trading Outlook
With a tighter US balance, strong recent old-crop export sales and growing uncertainty over how much Ukrainian corn will reach the world market, international prices are likely to remain underpinned in the near term, but capped by record South American supply. The forward curve on Euronext, with 2027 contracts trading well below nearby 2026 levels, suggests the market is already pricing in some medium-term supply relief and softer prices if logistics normalise.
- Feed buyers (EU): Consider staggered coverage for Q4 2026–Q1 2027 on Euronext while nearby futures remain near EUR 250/t, but avoid over-covering beyond mid‑2027 given large South American crops and potential easing of Black Sea disruptions.
- Producers (EU/Ukraine): Use current relative strength in nearby contracts to lock in margins on a portion of expected 2026/27 output. In Ukraine, focus on basis and logistics risk: on‑farm storage and optionality between land and Danube routes will be key.
- Traders: Watch US export sales, Black Sea shipping headlines and European weather closely. Spreads between Euronext 2026 and 2027 contracts, as well as between US and Ukrainian origins, are likely to remain volatile and may offer relative-value opportunities.
3‑Day Price Indication
- Euronext (Nov 2026): Sideways to slightly firmer around EUR 250–255/t, with weather and Black Sea news driving intraday volatility.
- CBOT (Dec 2026, EUR terms): Mildly supported in the short term, roughly tracking a EUR 170–175/t equivalent band, pending new US export and crop condition data.
- Physical EU & Black Sea: German and French spot corn likely to hold a premium over Ukrainian offers, with Ukraine basis staying weak but headline‑driven as logistics remain disrupted.