Corn market under pressure as WASDE lifts global stocks, Brazil trims second crop

Corn prices face renewed downside pressure after the latest WASDE pointed to slightly higher US and global ending stocks, while Brazil’s updated balance sheet still signals ample export availability despite a marginally smaller second crop. The market tone has turned more bearish as the USDA nudged US and global corn stocks upward for both 2025/26 and 2026/27, signalling comfortable supplies even in the medium term. Additional production upgrades in key exporters such as Brazil, Argentina, India and Paraguay outweigh cuts in Mexico and a modest downgrade for the EU. At the same time, Brazil’s Conab confirms only a very small retreat from last year’s record crop, leaving export capacity largely intact. Strong US weekly export sales provide a demand-side cushion, but so far are insufficient to offset the heavier global supply narrative.

Prices & Market Mood

Physical corn offers in Europe and the Black Sea region remain under mild pressure in EUR terms, reflecting the more comfortable global balance. Recent offers indicate:

• Ukraine, Odesa FCA feed corn around EUR 0.23/kg (USD 0.25/kg equivalent), slightly below early June levels.
• Ukraine, Odesa FOB corn around EUR 0.17–0.18/kg, softening after earlier small gains.
• France, FOB Paris yellow corn stable near EUR 0.24–0.25/kg, supported by EU internal demand and logistics.

Futures and physical markets are thus aligning with the WASDE’s slightly heavier stock outlook, keeping rallies capped and encouraging a sell-on-strength approach in the short term.

Supply & Demand: WASDE turns the dial more bearish

The latest USDA report sent a clear bearish signal. For the US, 2025/26 corn ending stocks were raised from 2.142 to 2.145 billion bushels, while 2026/27 ending stocks rose from 1.957 to 1.960 billion bushels. Both figures came in just above average analyst expectations, reinforcing the perception of comfortable US supplies over the next two seasons.

Globally, the USDA lifted 2025/26 production in India, Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay, while trimming Mexico. Total world output now stands at 1.327 billion tonnes, an increase of 14 million tonnes versus May. For 2026/27, beginning stocks, production, consumption and ending stocks were all revised higher, underlining a broad-based expansion of the global corn balance.

World beginning stocks for 2026/27 were raised by 6.5 million tonnes to 303.4 million tonnes. Production is now seen at about 1.3 billion tonnes, five million tonnes above May. Consumption is estimated at 1.323 billion tonnes, up eight million tonnes month-on-month. Even though 2026/27 ending stocks, at 281 million tonnes, remain about 22 million tonnes below the projected close of 2025/26, the incremental upward revisions keep the outlook from turning tight in the near term.

Regional Focus: Brazil and the EU

Brazil remains pivotal. Conab’s latest report pegs 2025/26 corn production at 140.46 million tonnes, 0.2% higher than in May. A positive revision to the first crop more than offsets a downgrade in the second crop, which has just begun harvest. The second crop is now seen at 107.87 million tonnes, 0.5% below May and 4.7% below last year, but still historically large.

The first crop is now estimated at 29.3 million tonnes, up 3.1% month-on-month and 17.7% year-on-year, partially compensating for the second-crop decline. Overall, Brazil’s total corn harvest would be only 0.5% below last season’s record. Export projections are unchanged at 46.5 million tonnes, with domestic consumption steady at 94.8 million tonnes, compared with actual exports of 41.6 million tonnes and use of 90.7 million tonnes in the previous cycle. This underpins Brazil’s role as a reliable, price-competitive supplier into 2026.

In the EU, the balance is somewhat less comfortable but not tight enough to overpower global trends. Commodity house Expana has trimmed its 2026/27 EU corn production forecast from 58.0 to 57.6 million tonnes following a reduction in expected planted area. The crop would still exceed 2025/26 output by 0.9 million tonnes, but remain 1.5 million tonnes below 2024/25. This points to steady import requirements and ensures that EU prices continue to track the global complex and Black Sea competition.

Trade Flows & Demand Signals

US export demand is a key counterweight to the heavier supply backdrop. In the week to 4 June, USDA reported net old-crop corn sales of 1.0004 million tonnes and additional 926,900 tonnes for the new marketing year. Old-crop sales came in within the upper half of market expectations (0.7–1.6 million tonnes), while new-crop bookings significantly exceeded the 200,000–500,000 tonne consensus range.

These robust sales highlight that the US remains competitive, especially into destinations balancing Brazil and Black Sea origins. However, strong weekly sales alone are unlikely to tighten the balance sheet meaningfully, given the scale of projected US and global stocks. For now, demand strength mainly serves to slow, rather than reverse, the bearish impulse from the supply side.

Weather & Crop Conditions (Key Regions)

Weather will determine whether the currently comfortable balance sheet persists or tightens. In the US Corn Belt, near-term forecasts call for generally seasonable temperatures with pockets of dryness in some western areas, but no widespread severe stress is yet priced in. Timely rains over the next month remain crucial for yield potential during key growth stages.

In Brazil, the ongoing second-crop harvest is exposed to localized rain and logistical delays, yet the overall production outlook remains broadly aligned with Conab’s slightly lower estimate. For the EU, a mixed pattern of showers and warm spells is expected; while localized dryness could limit yield recovery in some regions, current projections still point to only a modest shortfall versus 2024/25.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day View

Trading considerations

• Producers: Use rallies to advance sales for 2025/26 and part of 2026/27, as higher US and global stock projections limit upside. Consider incremental hedging rather than all-at-once selling to retain flexibility if weather turns adverse.
• Consumers (feed, starch, ethanol): Gradually extend coverage on price dips, especially from competitive origins such as Ukraine and Brazil. The current balance argues against an immediate supply squeeze, but weather or logistics could trigger short-term spikes.
• Traders: Bias towards selling strength rather than chasing rallies. Watch US weather and Brazil’s second-crop harvest pace for potential short-covering catalysts, but expect strong resistance if prices move significantly above recent ranges.

3‑day regional price indication (directional)

• Ukraine, Odesa FCA/FOB: Slightly softer to sideways in EUR, as global stocks weigh and harvest prospects in key exporters remain favourable.
• France, FOB Paris: Mostly sideways; EU-specific supply adjustments are too small to detach from global benchmarks.
• US Gulf (indicative, EUR-equivalent): Mild downside bias, unless US weather deteriorates or export sales surprise further to the upside.