Current Sugar Market Report: ICE Sugar No. 5 Downtrend – January to August 2025 Analysis

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Current Sugar Market Report: ICE Sugar No. 5 Downtrend – January to August 2025 Analysis


 

“Steady Decline: How the Sugar Market Faced Pressure in the First Half of 2025”

Sugar prices continue downward, falling over 6.8% from January to August 2025. On December 27, 2024, ICE Sugar No. 5 futures posted significant losses, reflecting ongoing market weakness. With weak demand and global oversupply, the outlook remains challenging. Read on for a comprehensive analysis of price developments.


1. Current Market Developments (As of December 27, 2024)

ICE Sugar No. 5 futures contracts recorded noticeable losses across all maturities. The closing prices in EUR (at an exchange rate of 1 USD = 0.92 EUR) are as follows:

Mintec Global
  • March 2025: €467.82/t (-1.95%)
  • May 2025: €466.72/t (-1.83%)
  • August 2025: €456.87/t (-1.41%)
  • October 2025: €450.62/t (-1.12%)
  • December 2025: €449.97/t (-1.02%)

2. Price Development Analysis: January to August 2025

The price trend in the first half of 2025 shows a continuous decline. The table below summarizes the progression:

Month Price (EUR/kg) Change (Cents/kg) Change (%)
January 0.47 0.00 0.00%
February 0.47 0.11 0.24%
March 0.46 1.09 2.34%
April 0.45 1.72 3.68%
May 0.45 1.78 3.82%
June 0.44 2.33 4.96%
July 0.44 2.75 5.89%
August 0.43 3.17 6.82%

3. Observations and Trends

  • Consistent Decline: Between January and August 2025, sugar prices dropped by 3.17 cents/kg or 6.82%.
  • Weak Demand: Lower demand post-holiday season and global oversupply continue to weigh heavily on markets.
  • Global Oversupply: Falling world market prices and increased competition from Ukraine intensify the pressure on European producers.

4. Recommendations

  • For Traders: Take advantage of the current low prices to secure strategic positions, particularly in near-term contracts like March and May 2025.
  • For Producers: Hedging strategies and export plans are critical to mitigate potential losses.
  • For Investors: High volatility offers short-term opportunities, but long-term positions remain risky due to uncertain market conditions.

Conclusion

The sugar market remains under significant pressure. Prices have steadily declined in recent weeks and months, with a substantial drop in the first half of 2025. Market participants should closely monitor global and EU sugar market developments, particularly regarding imports, demand trends, and potential market interventions.