Lentils & Moong: Tight Indian Pulse Fundamentals vs Softer Global Lentils

The pulse complex is entering a nuanced phase where domestic tightness in India’s moong (green gram) market contrasts with relatively well-supplied global lentil flows. Raw market feedback from Indian mandis is clear: arrivals of moong are shrinking, most of the previous crop from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar has already been absorbed, and only limited quantities from Madhya Pradesh tender stocks and Rajasthan are now reaching the mills. This has created a floor under moong prices, even though spot quotes have eased slightly by about $1–$2 per 100 kg, with premium-quality wholesale lots around $103–$106 per 100 kg and lower grades at $84–$90 per 100 kg. Average mandi prices for moong dal hover near ₹11,600 per quintal (roughly $140 per 100 kg), with strong regional and quality differentiation. Underpinning the entire structure is the fact that new crop arrivals from key growing belts are not expected until April, while arrivals in mandis have already dropped sharply as most farmers and stockists have sold off earlier stocks. Because India’s moong market is driven almost purely by domestic supply–demand fundamentals, with imports playing only a marginal role, traders across the value chain now see limited downside risk and anticipate that prices will remain firm to slightly higher once processor demand re-accelerates. Against this backdrop, global lentil exporters must weigh a tightening Indian moong segment—which can spill over into broader dal demand and substitution patterns—against reports of ample lentil supply and softer international prices. The result is a market where local tightness in one pulse (moong) acts as a stabilizing counterweight to an emerging oversupply narrative in international lentils, keeping the near-term risk profile skewed more to the upside than headline global stock numbers might suggest.

Prices & Market Structure

Moong (Green Gram) – India (Raw Text Priority)

• Premium-quality wholesale moong: eased by about $1–$2 per 100 kg, now around $103–$106 per 100 kg in key wholesale centers.
• Lower-grade lots: trading near $84–$90 per 100 kg, depending on quality and moisture.
• Average mandi moong dal price: about ₹11,600 per quintal, roughly $140 per 100 kg, with wide variation by region and grade.
• Price tone: Marginal softening in spot quotes but a firm underlying structure due to tightening supplies and the absence of nearby new-crop arrivals.

Global Lentil Benchmarks – Converted to EUR

The following prices use the provided offers (FOB) and an approximate FX of 1 USD ≈ 0.92 EUR for conversion from North American market indications and other USD-based benchmarks.

Recent Canadian cash indications show red lentils around $0.25/lb delivered plant and #2 large greens at $0.25–0.26/lb FOB farm, equivalent to roughly 0.51–0.53 EUR/kg at farm level before elevation and logistics, illustrating that wholesale/retail margins plus quality differentials explain the higher FOB EUR/kg offer levels in the dataset.

Supply & Demand Dynamics

India’s Moong-Lentil Pulse Complex (Raw Text Core)

• Absorption of old crop: Most earlier moong supplies from Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are already absorbed, reducing spot market liquidity.
• Current arrivals: Only limited quantities from Madhya Pradesh tender stocks and Rajasthan arrivals are feeding processing mills.
• Mandis running thin: Arrivals have declined significantly, with most of the previous crop sold; this underpins the current floor in moong prices.
• New crop timing: Fresh moong arrivals from other producing regions are expected only in April, leaving a near-term supply gap.
• Structural feature: India’s moong market runs largely on domestic fundamentals; imports are limited, so local production and stocks directly shape price trends.

For the wider lentil complex, India remains the single largest demand center. In 2024, India imported around 6.6 million tonnes of pulses, with masoor (lentil) imports estimated above 1.2 million tonnes as domestic production near 1.6 million tonnes could not meet consumption. However, more recent trade data indicate that India’s total pulse imports are now slowing as stocks rebuild and local production of chana, masoor and moong recovers, with FY26 pulse imports projected to fall sharply from the previous high.

Global Lentils – Emerging Oversupply vs Asian Demand

• Record or strong harvests in major producers (Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan and others) are contributing to an emerging oversupply narrative in global lentils.
• Asia-Pacific, led by India, accounts for roughly 46% of global lentil market size, anchoring demand despite policy-driven import fluctuations.
• Analysts highlight reduced import demand from India in the new season, which, combined with larger Northern Hemisphere crops, caps the upside for international lentil prices in the near term.

In that context, India’s tight moong balance sheet becomes strategically important: when one pulse segment tightens, there is often substitution into alternative dals (including masoor), which can absorb some of the global lentil surplus and moderate the downside risk in export prices.

Fundamentals & Key Market Drivers

1. Raw-Text Moong Fundamentals (Priority)

• Price behavior: Slight easing (–$1–$2 per 100 kg) in premium moong is more a reflection of short-term profit-taking and quality mix than of a structural surplus.
• Supply tightness: Sharply lower arrivals and depleted old-crop stocks are supportive for prices into the pre-harvest window.
• Demand side: Processor demand is expected to improve as we move closer to the new crop and as pipelines need refilling; traders therefore expect prices to remain firm or move slightly higher.
• Risk skew: With the next crop still weeks away, downside risk is limited, while any weather issues or logistics bottlenecks could quickly translate into price spikes.

2. Global Lentil Balance & Trade

• Production: Expanded acreage and favorable yields in Canada and the Black Sea region have increased exportable surpluses.
• Trade flows: After a surge in 2024–25 pulses imports, India is moderating purchases, meaning a larger share of world lentil output must find alternative homes (Middle East, North Africa, South Asia ex‑India).
• Prices: Recent Canadian market commentary highlights softness in red lentils and only modest firmness in greens, consistent with a market that is supplied but not collapsing.

3. Policy & Speculative Positioning

• Indian trade policy: Import duties and quantitative restrictions on pulses remain a key watchpoint for Q2 2026; any relaxation could quickly tighten global balances, while renewed curbs would pressure exporters.
• Speculative activity: In the absence of large listed contracts for lentils, speculative positioning is mainly visible through OTC and basis moves in Canada and Australia; current tone is cautious, with light length, reflecting awareness of oversupply but also of India’s structural needs.

Weather Outlook & Yield Risk

India – Key Moong & Lentil Belts

• Short-term (late March–early April 2026): IMD’s recent 7‑day forecast shows dry conditions across Bihar, East & West Uttar Pradesh, and West Rajasthan, which are important for pulses. This favors harvest and logistics for rabi pulses but could slightly stress late-sown fields if dryness persists.
• Summer monsoon 2025 context: Seasonal forecasts had indicated above-normal rainfall prospects for many core monsoon subdivisions including Bihar, East UP and West Rajasthan, providing good sub-soil moisture into the subsequent sowing window.
• Implication for moong: Adequate residual moisture and normal-to-above-normal rainfall in the previous season support expectations of a reasonable upcoming moong crop, but the timing gap until April still leaves the short-term market tight.

Canada & Other Exporters – Lentils

• Canada: As of early March 2026, no major weather shock has been flagged for the Prairie provinces; planting moisture is generally considered adequate, aligning with official outlooks that point to another year of solid pulse production.
• Black Sea (Russia, Kazakhstan): Previous season’s favorable conditions enabled around 1 million tonnes of incremental lentil output, building a buffer of exportable supply entering 2026.

Weather takeaway: In the near term, weather is not yet a bullish driver for global lentils but remains critical for India’s upcoming moong crop. Any late-season heatwaves or unseasonal rains during flowering/harvest could rapidly tighten domestic supplies further and reinforce the firm undertone across the entire pulse complex.

🌐 Production & Stocks – Key Countries

Trading Outlook & Strategy

Short- to Medium-Term Outlook

• Moong (India): With arrivals tight and new crop due only in April, downside is limited. Once processor demand improves, prices are likely to firm or at least hold current levels.
• Global Lentils: International markets face ample supplies and softer prices, especially for red lentils. Greens remain relatively better supported but still constrained by competition and India’s slower import pace.
• Cross-commodity effects: Tightness in moong may drive some incremental demand into masoor (lentils) within India, subtly underpinning global lentil values even in an apparent oversupply.

Actionable Recommendations

• Importers in South Asia & MENA:
  • Use current stable-to-soft EUR-denominated FOB offers for Canadian and Chinese lentils to extend coverage for Q2–Q3 2026, especially in red lentils.
  • Avoid over-buying moong at current firm Indian levels; instead, balance purchases between moong and lentils to optimize protein cost.
• Indian Millers & Traders (Moong Focus):
  • Maintain at least 2–3 months of moong raw material cover given the tight spot arrivals and limited imports.
  • Consider incremental buying on small dips rather than waiting for a major correction that fundamentals do not justify.
  • Prepare substitution strategies towards masoor if moong prices spike during any weather or logistics disruption.
• Producers & Exporters in Canada/Russia/Kazakhstan:
  • For green lentils, scale-up forward sales on rallies, as current global stocks and India’s slower buying limit sustained upside.
  • For red lentils, focus on basis management and logistics optimization rather than outright price speculation.
• Risk Managers & Investors:
  • View the moong segment as structurally tight in the near term, warranting a modestly bullish bias.
  • See global lentils as a range-bound market, with downside cushioned by substitution demand and policy risk from India.

🔮 3‑Day Regional Price Forecast (All in EUR)

Note: Short-term forecasts focus on directional bias rather than large absolute moves, given the relatively illiquid nature of listed lentil markets. Levels are indicative, based on current FOB offers and recent market commentary.

Overall, the next three days are expected to see stable to slightly firmer pricing in moong within India, while global lentil benchmarks in EUR are likely to remain broadly range-bound with a mild upward bias in higher-quality greens, reflecting strong but not explosive demand in a generally well-supplied world market.