Oat futures ease on weak US exports while Black Sea grains stay competitive

Oat futures on CBoT are drifting sideways to slightly weaker, capped by disappointing US export demand and strong competition from Black Sea wheat, while physical oat prices in the Black Sea region remain very low in EUR terms. The oat market currently trades in the shadow of larger grains. US export sales for the old crop came in clearly below expectations, reinforcing the picture of sluggish international demand and encouraging buyers to delay coverage into the new-crop period. At the same time, aggressive Black Sea wheat exports and low feed-grain prices in Eastern Europe limit upside potential for oats, even as forward CBoT oat contracts modestly firm along the curve.

Prices & Futures Structure

CBoT oat futures on 8 May 2026 show a flat to slightly upward sloping curve:

• May 2026: 325.5 USc/bu (~88.6 EUR/t)
• Jul 2026: 342.0 USc/bu (~93.1 EUR/t), marginally lower on the day (-0.15%)
• Sep 2026: 353.75 USc/bu (~96.3 EUR/t), up around 0.5%
• Dec 2026: 351.5 USc/bu (~95.7 EUR/t), unchanged

Trading volumes remain thin, underlining the secondary role of oats versus wheat and corn in current market activity. The mild carry into late 2026 and 2027 suggests adequate supply expectations and no acute concern about tightness.

Supply, Demand & Cross-Market Influences

US export sales for the old crop totaled just 78,800 t, clearly below the market’s expected 100,000–300,000 t range. New-crop sales of 187,500 t were at the upper end of expectations but do not yet offset the weak nearby pace. Overall, global demand remains cautious, as many importers shift purchasing interest towards the upcoming harvest.

Larger grains heavily influence oats. Algeria’s recent purchase of an estimated 390,000–420,000 t of wheat, likely mainly from the Black Sea region, underlines the continued competitiveness of Russian and regional wheat. Russian FOB wheat (12.5% protein) around 242 USD/t (~206 EUR/t) sits at the highest level since August 2025 but still offers attractive feed alternatives compared with CME oat values, indirectly pressuring oats in feed rations.

Regional Fundamentals & Black Sea Price Signals

Despite strong Russian wheat exports in April (around 3.95 Mio t, 65% above last year), forward expectations are slightly tempered. Consultancy estimates for Russian 2025/26 wheat exports have been trimmed from 46.0 to 44.5 Mio t, reflecting a stronger rouble and seasonal demand slowdown. This does not yet point to a tight global grain balance but may gradually reduce some of the downward pressure on minor cereals, including oats, later in the season.

In the EU, French wheat and barley crop conditions remain clearly above last year, signalling robust grain availability in Western Europe. This comfortable cereals outlook keeps substitution pressure on oats in feed and industrial use, limiting price upside in the absence of a specific oat supply shock.

On the physical side, indicative Black Sea oat prices for feed quality (Ukraine, Odesa, FCA) linger around 0.25 EUR/kg (≈ 250 EUR/t), broadly stable over recent weeks after edging up from 0.24 EUR/kg. These levels point to ample regional availability, even if logistics and geopolitical risk add some risk premium.

Weather & Short-Term Outlook

With planting and early crop development underway in the Northern Hemisphere, current weather conditions in key oat regions are not triggering acute supply concerns. Markets focus more on demand signals and competition from wheat and barley than on weather-driven oat shortages at this stage.

Given sluggish export demand, active Black Sea wheat exports and comfortable EU grain prospects, oat prices are likely to remain range-bound in the near term, with limited potential for sustained rallies unless weather turns markedly adverse in major oat belts.

Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Directional View

• Producers: Consider incremental hedging on modest rallies in deferred 2026 contracts, as the forward curve still prices a small carry without evidence of tightening demand.
• Feed buyers: Maintain a hand-to-mouth strategy in nearby positions and look to extend coverage into Q4 2026 on dips, given persistent competition from cheap Black Sea wheat and local feed grains.
• Speculators: The thin liquidity and sideways structure favour short-term range trading rather than strong directional bets; upward moves towards the upper end of recent ranges may offer opportunities to fade.

Over the next three trading days, CBoT oat futures are likely to trade slightly lower to sideways in EUR terms, following the broader grain complex and in the absence of fresh demand or weather shocks. Physical Black Sea oat indications in EUR are expected to remain broadly stable, with only minor fluctuations driven by freight and FX.