Hazelnut Prices Soften as Turkish Exports Slump and Georgia Holds Firm

Hazelnut kernel prices are drifting slightly lower in both Türkiye and Georgia, with Turkish offers under mild pressure from weak export performance, while Georgian kernels retain a clear premium but also edge down. Short‑term, the market looks soft to sideways, with no immediate weather threats but ongoing macro and currency uncertainty. The hazelnut market is currently shaped by a combination of sluggish export demand from Türkiye and structurally higher costs and premiums for Georgian origin. Fresh export statistics show a sharp decline in Turkish volumes so far in 2026, despite solid European demand, easing price tension at origin. At the same time, weather in key Black Sea orchards and in western Georgia is seasonally mild with no acute frost or heat stress reported, limiting immediate supply risk. Against this backdrop, buyers gain near‑term leverage, especially for standard natural Turkish kernels, while high‑grade Georgian product remains tight but not aggressively bid.

Prices & Spreads (all in EUR/kg)

Using the latest TRY/EUR reference around 0.0187 for May 11, 2026, Turkish FOB prices convert to roughly 0.16–0.45 EUR/kg equivalent at farm/wholesale level and around 7.96–8.43 EUR/kg for export‑grade kernels, while Georgian FCA Warsaw offers stand between 10.00 and 11.20 EUR/kg.

Domestic reports from Turkey’s Black Sea region indicate local hazelnut prices around 160 TRY/kg in early May, implying a softening trend at farmgate that is consistent with the modest easing seen in export kernel offers.

Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Fresh export data show that Türkiye’s hazelnut exports in the first months of 2026 are down about 31% year‑on‑year, mainly due to weather‑related damage to the last crop and a more cautious approach from key buyers. Germany remains the leading destination, with Poland also important and achieving some of the highest average import prices, underpinning demand for higher‑spec product.

Despite lower volumes, Turkey is still the dominant global supplier, with core production in Ordu, Giresun and other Black Sea provinces. Local press also highlights the strong influence of major processors, particularly Ferrero, whose purchasing strategies continue to shape farmgate expectations and producer sentiment. This combination of export slowdown and concentrated buying power encourages sellers to accept slightly lower kernel offers in order to keep product moving.

Georgia, by contrast, remains a smaller but fast‑developing origin, with authorities emphasizing rising hazelnut export values earlier this year and positioning the crop as a strategic export commodity. Georgian kernels command a sizeable premium over Turkish product, especially for large sizes, reflecting both quality perception and higher logistics and processing costs. The recent small reductions in Georgian FCA prices likely reflect competition from softer Turkish offers rather than any structural surplus in Georgia.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR & GE)

In Türkiye’s Black Sea hazelnut belt, recent reports from Giresun and surrounding provinces indicate that winter and early spring weather have been broadly favorable for the 2026 crop, with low risk of severe frost in April and generally good budding conditions. While farmers remain concerned about pests such as stink bugs, no acute, weather‑driven production shock is currently reported.

Short‑term forecasts for the Black Sea coast around Ordu and Giresun in mid‑May point to typical patterns: mild temperatures, high humidity and intermittent rain showers, but no extremes likely to alter yield prospects over the next 3 days. (Inference based on typical climatology and absence of disruptive weather alerts in recent regional coverage.)

In Georgia, May weather across key agricultural regions is described as generally mild and favorable, supporting fieldwork and vegetative growth. Hazelnut orchards in western and southwestern Georgia benefit from this stable pattern, with no indications in recent national or tourism‑oriented bulletins of frost, hail or heat events threatening the upcoming crop. Together, these conditions support a neutral to slightly comfortable supply outlook in both TR and GE.

Fundamentals & Macro Drivers

On the macro side, continued weakness of the Turkish lira versus the euro keeps TRY‑denominated farmgate prices relatively high for local growers while capping euro‑denominated export offers. Recent ECB and market data place TRY around 0.0187 EUR, meaning even modest lira price movements can translate into competitive EUR kernel offers for overseas buyers.

At the same time, reports on the processed hazelnut market underline that Turkey’s high production costs and government support prices for farmers maintain a relatively high floor under international processed prices, even when demand softens. Academic analysis published this week also points to only moderate fluctuations in Turkey’s hazelnut export unit prices in 2026, reinforcing the picture of a market that is easing but not collapsing. This explains why current kernel quotes are edging down rather than sharply correcting.

3‑Day Outlook & Trading Ideas

3‑Day Regional Price Direction (EUR terms)

• Türkiye (TR, FOB Istanbul): Slightly soft to stable. Adequate physical availability, weaker exports and a soft lira point to mild downside bias for standard natural kernels over the next 3 days, but no sharp moves are expected absent currency shocks.
• Georgia (GE, FCA Warsaw): Mostly stable with gentle downside drift. Stronger demand for high‑quality, large‑size kernels should keep offers elevated, though competing Turkish supply may pressure small size categories marginally lower.

Trading Outlook

• Buy‑side (roasters, chocolatiers, traders): Consider scaling in purchases of Turkish natural 11–13 mm and 13–15 mm for nearby and Q3 coverage while prices ease and farmgate sentiment is cautious. Leave some volume open in case exports weaken further and TRY softens again.
• Premium users (GE origin / large sizes): Maintain staggered buying for Georgian 13–15 mm and 15+ mm, but negotiate on the basis of narrowing spreads to Turkish offers; current premiums look defensible yet slightly negotiable in the short term.
• Producers & sellers (TR & GE): Avoid aggressive undercutting in the absence of weather problems; instead, focus on quality differentiation (especially for Georgian origin) and flexible shipment terms to protect margins while keeping stocks moving.