Barley Market Steadies as SFE Curve Firms and Black Sea Values Hold

Barley prices are stabilising on a firmer forward curve, supported indirectly by tight wheat conditions and resilient export demand, while physical offers in the Black Sea remain broadly unchanged. The market is calm rather than bullish, with feed barley still needing to price at a discount to wheat to retain its place in feed rations. Global barley trade is currently taking its cues from wheat. Severe yield losses in U.S. winter wheat, especially in the southern Plains, have pushed international wheat markets higher and improved EU export competitiveness, indirectly underpinning feed grain values overall. At the same time, EU soft wheat export flows remain strong and the euro has weakened, improving the relative appeal of European origins. Against this backdrop, SFE feed barley futures and Ukrainian cash prices are moving sideways to slightly higher rather than breaking out decisively.

Prices & Futures

Australian SFE feed barley futures show a modestly firmer forward structure. Nearby May 2026 is last quoted at AUD 310/t, with July 2026 around AUD 320/t, and contracts from September 2026 to March 2027 clustered in the high AUD 320s to mid‑340s/t. Further out, January 2028 and January 2029 are indicated near AUD 360.50/t, all with no reported volume on 20 May 2026, confirming a static but slightly upward‑tilted curve.

Using an indicative exchange rate of 1 AUD ≈ 0.61 EUR, this translates into roughly EUR 189–196/t for nearby contracts and up to around EUR 220/t for the longest‑dated positions. In Ukraine, indicative offers for feed barley for feed use are aligned with these levels: around EUR 190–200/t FOB Odesa and roughly EUR 230–240/t FCA inland, with very limited week‑on‑week movement.

Supply & Demand Drivers

Barley fundamentals are closely intertwined with wheat. In the U.S., crop progress data show winter wheat conditions at multi‑decade lows, with only around a quarter of the crop rated good to excellent and abandonment in the southern Plains extremely high. This has tightened global milling wheat expectations, supporting overall grain price levels despite only modest direct changes in barley balances. At the same time, EU soft wheat exports in 2025/26 have reached over 20.6 million tonnes by mid‑May, around 7% above last year, with Romania and France leading shipments. Strong wheat exports, combined with a weaker euro, enhance the competitiveness of EU cereals and help barley maintain demand as a secondary feed grain in importing regions such as North Africa and West Africa.

In Germany, winter wheat sowings for harvest 2026 are projected up 1.5% year‑on‑year to 2.9 million hectares, with spring wheat also expanding. This signals that, structurally, wheat area remains favoured over barley in key EU producers, keeping barley reliant on its feed niche and export competitiveness rather than acreage growth. In Ukraine, barley remains an important swing feed grain, but logistics and farmers’ attention are increasingly dominated by wheat and corn export programs.

Fundamentals & Weather

Global barley supply for the 2026/27 season currently looks broadly adequate, with no major weather shock in key barley belts. In North America, spring barley planting is progressing near average, and while parts of the High Plains suffer persistent drought, this primarily affects winter wheat rather than spring barley areas further north. In Europe, weather has been mixed but not yet threatening to barley yield potential.

In the U.S. southern Plains, drought remains severe, and recent storms are providing only partial relief. Forecasts call for wetter‑than‑normal conditions across parts of Texas and Oklahoma in late May, but high temperatures and long‑term moisture deficits mean that rangeland and crop stress will not be fully resolved. For barley, the main impact is indirect: tighter U.S. wheat output supports the overall feed grain complex, but current conditions are not yet tight enough to drive a strong barley price rally.

Trading Outlook

• Feed buyers (EU, North Africa, Middle East): Current EUR‑denominated barley values remain attractive relative to wheat. Consider extending coverage modestly into late 2026 while the SFE curve is still below ~EUR 200/t for nearby slots and Ukrainian FOB remains near EUR 190–200/t.
• Producers (Australia, EU, Black Sea): The firmer forward structure offers limited but visible carry. Locking in a portion of 2026/27 production on rallies tied to wheat headlines could secure margins without over‑hedging in a still‑comfortable global balance.
• Traders and merchandisers: Watch wheat volatility and FX. A further weakening of the euro or renewed U.S. wheat downgrades could temporarily improve barley spreads into Mediterranean destinations; however, as long as export flows are smooth, barley must continue to price at a discount to wheat to pull demand.

3‑Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)

• SFE feed barley (Australia): Sideways to slightly firmer in EUR terms as the curve consolidates in the high EUR 180s to low 200s.
• Black Sea (Ukraine FOB): Largely steady around EUR 190–200/t; minor upside risk if wheat rallies again on U.S. weather news.
• EU export hubs (e.g., France FOB): Stable to marginally firmer, tracking wheat and FX; barley is expected to maintain a competitive discount versus milling wheat.