Desiccated Coconut Prices Hold Steady as Weather Risks Remain Contained

Desiccated coconut prices from Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam are broadly flat this week, with no major weather or logistics shock to dislodge the current range. The market is tracking earlier strength in coconut-oil-related fundamentals but, in the very short term, export offers remain stable and buyers are negotiating within a narrow band. Mildly supportive risk comes from an active but currently quiet typhoon outlook in the western Pacific.

Export quotations for desiccated and flaked coconut are consolidating after earlier gains across the wider coconut complex in late 2025. Stronger coconut oil and copra prices through 2025 tightened margins for some processors, but the immediate physical market for desiccated coconut is now balanced, with adequate supply from Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam and steady demand from Europe and Asia. With no new storms impacting key coconut belts since Tropical Storm Penha in early February 2026, near‑term price risk is limited and trade flows remain normal.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Using an indicative rate of 1 EUR = 1.10 USD, benchmark FOB and FCA offers translate to the following approximate levels:

Origin	Product	Location / Terms	Latest Price (EUR/mt)	1‑week Δ (EUR/mt)
Indonesia (ID)	Desiccated, medium grade	Dordrecht, FCA	≈ 1,773	0
Indonesia (ID)	Desiccated	Dordrecht, FCA	≈ 1,819	0
Philippines (PH)	Flakes, conventional	Dordrecht, FCA	≈ 2,454	0
Philippines (PH)	Flakes, organic	Dordrecht, FCA	≈ 2,818	0
Vietnam (VN)	Flakes, conventional	Hanoi, FOB	≈ 4,227	0

These levels are broadly consistent with mid‑2024 desiccated coconut FOB indications from the International Coconut Community in the USD 2,000+ per mt range for Indonesia and the Philippines, adjusted for freight, product type and currency. The absence of week‑on‑week movement underlines a short‑term equilibrium between supply and demand despite still‑firm coconut oil benchmarks compared with 2024.

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers (ID, PH, VN)

Indonesia (ID)

Indonesia remains one of the largest desiccated coconut exporters globally, having shipped over 110,000 mt in 2022. Recent analytical work from the International Coconut Community shows domestic dehusked coconut prices rising through 2023–2025, reflecting tighter farm‑gate supplies and stronger industrial demand. However, no fresh policy or logistical disruptions have emerged in the last few days, and export flows appear normal.

Philippines (PH)

The Philippines also remains a top desiccated exporter, with export volumes above 150,000 mt in 2022. Government and World Bank data highlighted a sharp rise in coconut oil prices and a 75% jump in desiccated coconut export earnings in 2025, signaling strong structural demand and higher value realisation. That said, this week’s spot offers for desiccated coconut flakes in Europe are stable, indicating that recent gains are already priced in.

Vietnam (VN)

Vietnam’s role in desiccated coconut exports has grown steadily, with volumes rising from about 17,000 mt in 2018 to over 24,000 mt in 2022. Broader Vietnamese agri and food exports have shown modest month‑on‑month adjustments in early 2026 for other products, but there is no sign of acute stress in coconut trade flows. Current FOB offers for coconut flakes out of Hanoi are flat week‑on‑week, consistent with this picture of stable trade.

⛅ Weather & Risk Outlook (ID, PH, VN)

The western Pacific has been active in early 2026. Tropical Storm Penha (local name Basyang) crossed the Philippines in early February, affecting parts of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao. While it brought localized damage, there are no indications of large‑scale, lasting impacts on coconut production belts that would affect March export availability.

The broader 2026 Pacific typhoon season is underway but currently without a significant new system threatening key coconut‑growing regions of the Philippines, Indonesia or Vietnam over the next few days. Regional meteorological outlooks point to typical hot conditions and scattered thunderstorms for Southeast Asia, but no extreme events focused on major coconut zones. This limits immediate weather‑driven upside in prices, though vulnerability remains should a stronger storm form closer to peak season.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Structure

• Tight but balanced fundamentals: Elevated coconut oil and copra benchmarks versus 2024 support a floor under desiccated coconut values, but current supply from ID, PH and VN is sufficient to meet demand without aggressive bidding.
• Export concentration: Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam collectively dominate global desiccated exports, anchoring international price discovery.
• Macro demand: Stable demand from food and confectionery sectors, particularly in Europe and Asia, is keeping utilisation steady but not accelerating enough to force a short‑term breakout in prices.

📆 Short‑Term Price Outlook (3‑Day View)

Based on current offers, recent fundamentals and the limited weather risk in ID, PH and VN, the directional outlook for the next three days is:

• Indonesia (desiccated, ID): Sideways in EUR terms; farm‑gate firmness is offset by stable export pipelines. No major weather or policy shock in sight.
• Philippines (flakes, PH): Sideways to slightly firm bias, supported by strong 2025 export performance and structurally higher coconut oil prices, but no immediate catalyst for a sharp move.
• Vietnam (flakes, VN): Sideways; export flows appear normal and maritime logistics are functioning smoothly, keeping FOB offers steady.

💡 Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Buyers (food manufacturers, traders): Consider covering near‑term needs at current levels, especially for higher‑value PH and VN flakes, as coconut oil strength and any future storm development could tighten offers later in Q2.
• Sellers (origin exporters): Maintain offer discipline; with fundamentals supportive but not tight, locking in forward volumes at today’s EUR levels secures margins while retaining some upside if weather risk materialises.
• Risk management: Monitor tropical outlooks for the western Pacific closely; a new system targeting the southern Philippines or eastern Indonesia could quickly shift the balance from neutral to bullish.