The dried apricot market is entering a period of heightened uncertainty as the last of the previous season’s stock is allocated to both local and export customers. The devastating frost event on April 12 in Türkiye’s key growing regions has cast a long shadow over the upcoming harvest, with many farmers reporting significant losses. The Turkish government has encouraged affected growers to submit loss petitions by May 29, 2025, but optimism among producers remains low.
Without substantial state support, and with the harvest already expected to be below average, farmers are likely to hold out for higher prices to offset their losses. This supply squeeze is expected to pressure both export and local markets, with exporters potentially turning to alternate origins such as Iran to fulfil contracts. The market is bracing for several challenging months, with more clarity anticipated after the Eid al-Adha holiday and the start of June.
Meanwhile, both export volumes and prices have dropped compared to last year, highlighting the market’s vulnerability. Buyers and traders should closely monitor government support measures, weather developments, and substitution from other origins as the new crop outlook remains fragile.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Apricots dried
no: 5, unsulphured
FOB 5.00 €/kg
(from TR)
Apricots dried
no: 4, unsulphured, organic
FOB 5.84 €/kg
(from TR)
Apricots dried
no: 4, unsulphured
FOB 5.35 €/kg
(from TR)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery | Price (USD/kg) | Prev. Price | Update Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apricots dried | no: 5, unsulphured | TR | MALATYA | FOB | 5.00 | 5.00 | 2025-05-28 |
| Apricots dried | no: 4, unsulphured, organic | TR | Ankara | FOB | 5.84 | 5.84 | 2025-05-28 |
| Apricots dried | no: 4, unsulphured | TR | MALATYA | FOB | 5.35 | 5.35 | 2025-05-28 |
| Apricots dried | no: 3, dried unsulphured, organic | TR | MALATYA | FOB | 6.07 | 6.07 | 2025-05-28 |
| Apricots dried | no: 3, unsulphured | TR | MALATYA | FOB | 5.65 | 5.65 | 2025-05-28 |
| Apricots dried | no: 2, unsulphured, organic | TR | MALATYA | FOB | 6.00 | 6.00 | 2025-05-28 |
| Apricots dried | premium, diameter > 30mm | IR | Tehran | FOB | 2.61 | 2.61 | 2025-05-28 |
| Apricots dried | jumbo, premium, diameter > 30mm | IR | Tehran | FOB | 3.89 | 3.89 | 2025-05-28 |
Market Sentiment: Neutral to firm, with upward pressure expected as supply tightens further.
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Supply: The Turkish dried apricot market is facing a significant supply crunch due to the April frost, with many orchards reporting major yield losses. Stocks from the previous season are nearly depleted, and only limited volumes remain for both local and export customers.
- Demand: Export demand remains steady but is increasingly being met by alternative origins, notably Iran, as Turkish supply tightens. Domestic demand is likely to face upward price pressure as availability drops.
- Exports: Last week, the Aegean region exported 248,563 tons at an average price of 5.96 USD/kg, down from 267,907 tons and 7 USD/kg in the same week last year.
📊 Fundamentals
- Weather Impact: The April 12 frost in Türkiye’s apricot heartland (Malatya, Aegean region) is the main driver of lower supply. Ongoing weather risks persist, with the potential for late spring storms or drought to further impact yields.
- Government Support: Farmers have until May 29, 2025, to petition for loss compensation. The level of state support will be critical for future planting and price stability.
- Inventory: Remaining stocks are minimal. Exporters are seeking to supplement Turkish origins with Iranian apricots, which are currently trading at a significant discount (2.61–3.89 USD/kg FOB Tehran).
- Speculative Positioning: With limited new crop supply, some traders may hold back product to drive prices higher.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Türkiye (Malatya & Aegean): Recent weather has been volatile, with late cold snaps. The forecast for the first week of June calls for average temperatures and low precipitation, reducing immediate frost risk but raising concerns about drought stress if dry conditions persist.
- Iran: Stable weather, supporting a steady crop and competitive export pricing.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2024/25 Est. Production (tons) | 2023/24 Production (tons) | Stock Situation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | Significantly down (pending post-frost estimates) | ~800,000 | Stocks nearly depleted |
| Iran | Stable | ~350,000 | Good availability |
| Uzbekistan | Stable | ~150,000 | Moderate |
| Other origins | Stable | – | Minor role |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Monitor Turkish government support measures – compensation could stabilise farmers selling behaviour.
- Expect further price firming as new crop supply shortfalls become evident in June/July.
- Consider diversifying sourcing to Iranian or other origins to mitigate supply risk and cost increases.
- Exporters should communicate transparently with customers about potential delays or substitutions.
- Monitor weather updates closely; additional weather events could further reduce Turkish output.
- In the short term, buyers may want to secure volumes before post-Eid price adjustments.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Current Price (USD/kg) | Forecast Range (USD/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malatya (TR, unsulphured, no. 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 – 5.10 | Firm |
| Ankara (TR, organic, no:4) | 5.84 | 5.80 – 5.90 | Stable |
| Tehran (IR, premium) | 2.61 | 2.60 – 2.70 | Stable |
